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1、冰冰淇淇淋淋销销量量线线性性回回归归预预测测模模型型年份序号消费量预测值|PE|(%)e2199217416602718.73351930078.71199329720830014.60942016503.2719943119341057311.40271851776.64199541170012846-9.79861314316.34199651245615120-21.38477095152.40199761508417393-15.30705331061.19199871809019666-8.71282484234.491999822050219390.501712236.382000
2、925524242135.13781719722.2720011027828264864.82301801354.4220021129520287592.5776578982.64200312310322004133330620051435579200615378522007164012520081742399200918446722010194694520112049218MAPESDE20122151491201322537650.23481616.6453SUMMARY OUTPUT回归统计Multiple R0.9778R Square0.956Adjusted R Square0.9
3、512标准误差 1704.1观测值11方差分析dfSSMSFSignificance F回归分析1 5.68E+08 5.68E+08 195.7469125 2.06231E-07残差9 261354192903935总计10 5.95E+08Coefficients标准误差t StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%下限 95.0%Intercept 3753.5 1101.986 3.406115 0.007797434 1260.625546 6246.356 1260.626X Variable 12273.2162.479 13.99096 2.06231E-07
4、 1905.683418 2640.789 1905.6831992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 200205000100001500020000250003000035000消费量预测值RESIDUAL OUTPUT观测值预测 Y残差标准残差1 6026.7 1389.273 0.85935528300 1420.036 0.8783853105731360.8 0.841743412846-1146.44-0.70915515120-2663.67-1.64765617393-2308.91-1.42821719666-1576
5、.15-0.97495821939 110.6182 0.068425924213 1311.382 0.8111751026486 1342.145 0.8302041128759 760.9091 0.470672上限 95.0%6246.3562640.7891992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 200205000100001500020000250003000035000消费量预测值冰冰淇淇淋淋销销量量二二次次指指数数平平滑滑预预测测年份序号消费量一次平滑二次平滑At值Bt值yts(1)s(2)atbt19921741696
6、90.0010298.009082.00-2432.001993297209714.009830.809597.20-467.20199431193411490.0011158.1611821.841327.36199541170011658.0011558.0311757.97399.87199651245612296.4012148.7312444.07590.69199761508414526.4814050.9315002.031902.20199871809017377.3016712.0218042.572661.09199982205021115.4620234.7721996.
7、153522.75200092552424642.2923760.7925523.803526.022001102782827190.8626504.8427876.872744.062002112952029054.1728544.3129564.042039.46200312200413200514200615200716200817200918201019201120201221201322预测值Ft+16650.009130.0013149.2012157.8413034.7716904.2320703.6625518.9029049.8130620.9331603.5035682.4
8、237721.8839761.3541800.8143840.2745879.7347919.1949958.6651998.1254037.581992199319941995199619971998199920002001200205000100001500020000250003000035000消费量 yt预测值 Ft+11992199319941995199619971998199920002001200205000100001500020000250003000035000消费量 yt预测值 Ft+1冰冰淇淇淋淋销销量量二二次次指指数数平平滑滑预预测测年份序号消费量一次平滑二次平滑
9、At值Bt值yts(1)s(2)atbt1992174169690.0010298.009082.00-1488.551993297209714.009830.809597.20-285.96199431193411490.0011158.1611821.84812.44199541170011658.0011558.0311757.97244.75199651245612296.4012148.7312444.07361.55199761508414526.4814050.9315002.031164.28199871809017377.3016712.0218042.571628.7719
10、9982205021115.4620234.7721996.152156.17200092552424642.2923760.7925523.802158.162001102782827190.8626504.8427876.871679.552002112952029054.1728544.3129564.041248.29200312200413200514200615200716200817200918201019201120201221201322预测值Ft+17593.459311.2412634.2812002.7212805.6216166.3119671.3424152.312
11、7681.9629556.4230812.3333308.9134557.2035805.4937053.7938302.0839550.3740798.6642046.9543295.2444543.53冰冰淇淇淋淋销销量量二二次次指指数数平平滑滑预预测测年份序号消费量一次平滑二次平滑At值Bt值yts(1)s(2)atbt1992174169690.0010298.009082.00-1563.431993297209714.009830.809597.20-300.34199431193411490.0011158.1611821.84853.30199541170011658.0011
12、558.0311757.97257.06199651245612296.4012148.7312444.07379.73199761508414526.4814050.9315002.031222.84199871809017377.3016712.0218042.571710.70199982205021115.4620234.7721996.152264.62200092552424642.2923760.7925523.802266.722001102782827190.8626504.8427876.871764.042002112952029054.1728544.3129564.0
13、41311.08200312200413200514200615200716200817200918201019201120201221201322预测值Ft+17518.579296.8612675.1412015.0312823.8116224.8819753.2724260.7727790.5229640.9130875.1233497.2934808.3736119.4537430.5338741.6240052.7041363.7842674.8643985.9545297.03冰冰淇淇淋淋销销量量二二次次指指数数平平滑滑预预测测年份序号消费量一次平滑二次平滑At值Bt值yts(1)
14、s(2)atbt1992174169690.0010298.009082.00-1643.851993297209714.009830.809597.20-315.79199431193411490.0011158.1611821.84897.20199541170011658.0011558.0311757.97270.28199651245612296.4012148.7312444.07399.27199761508414526.4814050.9315002.031285.75199871809017377.3016712.0218042.571798.7019998220502111
15、5.4620234.7721996.152381.12200092552424642.2923760.7925523.802383.332001102782827190.8626504.8427876.871854.782002112952029054.1728544.3129564.041378.53200312200413200514200615200716200817200918201019201120201221201322预测值Ft+17438.159281.4112719.0412028.2512843.3416287.7819841.2724377.2627907.1229731
16、.6530942.5633699.6135078.1436456.6637835.1939213.7140592.2441970.7643349.2944727.8146106.34冰冰淇淇淋淋销销量量误误差差分分析析年份序号消费量预测值(xx)预测值(yy)预测值(zz)Ft(xx)yt0.710.720.73|PE|(%)1992174161993297207593.457518.577438.1521.8819943119349311.249296.869281.4121.98199541170012634.2812675.1412719.047.99199651245612002.72
17、12015.0312028.253.64199761508412805.6212823.8112843.3415.10199871809016166.3116224.8816287.7810.63199982205019671.3419753.2719841.2710.79200092552424152.3124260.7724377.265.372001102782827681.9627790.5227907.120.522002112952029556.4229640.9129731.650.1220031230812.3330875.1230942.5620041333308.91334
18、97.2933699.6120051434557.2034808.3735078.1420061535805.4936119.4536456.6620071637053.7937430.5337835.1920081738302.0838741.6239213.7120091839550.3740052.7040592.2420101940798.6641363.7841970.7620112042046.9542674.8643349.29MAPE20122143295.2443985.9544727.8120132244543.5345297.0346106.349.80Ft(yy)Ft(
19、zz)e2|PE|(%)e2|PE|(%)e24522222.2422.654846287.7623.485206847.876878862.7822.106954522.4522.237036247.46872871.398.33950903.598.711038436.48205465.263.54194455.803.43182968.485191018.5714.985108478.2114.855020560.563700582.9510.313478689.679.963248000.675658013.8210.425274958.4610.024878482.261881528
20、.004.951595747.464.491315003.3421327.460.131404.720.286260.201326.730.4114618.920.7244796.29SDEMAPESDEMAPESDE1792.999.781777.029.821763.13冰冰淇淇淋淋销销量量误误差差分分析析Ft(xx)冰冰淇淇淋淋销销量量与与5 5盎盎司司纸纸杯杯需需求求量量的的线线性性回回归归预预测测模模型型年份序号冰淇淋消费量xi(千吨)纸杯需求量yi(百万只)预测值Y(百万只)|PE|(%)e219921741617.9620.0199-11.46914.24301993297202
21、6.1725.40992.90460.5778199431193427.1230.5893-12.792512.0363199541170031.6830.04195.17072.6833199651245632.1531.81051.05590.1153199761508442.3637.958510.390719.3732199871809045.3344.99080.74830.1151199982205052.2854.2549-3.77753.9001200092552464.262.38202.83183.30512001102782865.7567.7720-3.07534.08
22、862002112952071.9671.73030.31920.05282003123103275.26832004133330680.58632005143557985.90442006153785291.22242007164012596.540520081742399101.858520091844672107.176620101946945112.494620112049218117.8127MAPESDE20122151491123.130720132253765128.4488-0.69942.2470SUMMARY OUTPUT回归统计Multiple R 0.9923R Sq
23、uare 0.9847Adjusted R Square0.983dfSSMSFSignificance F回归分析1 3254.01469 3254.0147 580.03242 1.754E-09残差9 50.4905088 5.6100565总计103304.5052Coefficients 标准误差t StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%下限 95.0%Intercept2.6707 1.83421813 1.4560629 0.1793557-1.478553 6.820027-1.47855X Variable 10.0023 9.7136E-05 24.08
24、3862 1.754E-09 0.0021197 0.0025590.00212RESIDUAL OUTPUT观测值预测 Y残差标准残差120.02-2.0598517-0.916708225.41 0.76013213 0.33828623 30.589-3.4693366-1.543984 30.042 1.63808695 0.72900765 31.811 0.33948787 0.15108436 37.958 4.40150063 1.95882627 44.991 0.33921384 0.15096248 54.255-1.9748765-0.8788919 62.382 1.
25、81798964 0.809070810 67.772-2.0220266-0.8998751171.73 0.229680270.102216上限 95.0%6.8200270.002559月月度度需需求求统统计计表表19971998199920002001200211.411.501.711.922.102.2321.852.132.312.822.983.2033.012.813.814.674.845.0244.204.525.206.386.507.1554.334.204.725.916.036.7864.504.665.216.556.727.2275.105.366.127.4
26、67.678.5485.305.706.517.998.129.6194.524.765.346.687.359.57103.543.804.455.575.686.02112.843.403.924.783.984.38121.762.492.983.293.782.241.502.132.814.524.204.665.365.704.763.803.402.491.712.313.815.204.725.216.126.515.344.453.922.981.922.824.676.385.916.55年月14710 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46
27、 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 700.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 7.467.996.685.574.783.292.102.984.846.506.036.727.678.127.355.683.983.782.233.205.027.156.787.228.549.619.576.024.382.2414710 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 700.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 月月需需求求量量预预测测表表年份月
28、份序号需求量年平均值 趋势值Fi季节增量 平均增量19971997111.413.533.22-1.81-0.18221.853.18-1.330.60333.013.14-0.132.12444.203.101.103.79554.333.061.273.50664.503.021.484.03775.102.982.134.97885.302.932.375.50994.522.891.634.7110103.542.850.693.2311112.842.810.032.3112121.762.77-1.011.22199819981131.503.782.73-1.23-0.18214
29、2.132.69-0.560.603152.812.650.162.124164.522.611.923.795174.202.561.643.506184.662.522.144.037195.362.482.884.978205.702.443.265.509214.762.402.364.7110223.802.361.443.2311233.402.321.082.3112242.492.280.211.22199919991251.714.362.24-0.52-0.182262.312.190.120.603273.812.151.662.124285.202.113.093.79
30、5294.722.072.653.506305.212.033.184.037316.121.994.134.978326.511.954.565.509335.341.913.434.7110344.451.872.593.2311353.921.822.102.3112362.981.781.201.22200020001371.925.341.740.18-0.182382.821.701.120.603394.671.663.012.124406.381.624.763.795415.911.584.333.506426.551.545.014.037437.461.505.974.9
31、78447.991.456.545.509456.681.415.274.7110465.571.374.203.2311474.781.333.452.3112483.291.292.001.22200120011492.105.481.250.85-0.182502.981.211.770.603514.841.173.672.124526.501.135.383.795536.031.084.953.506546.721.045.684.037557.671.006.674.978568.120.967.165.509577.350.926.434.7110585.680.884.803
32、.2311593.980.843.142.3112603.780.802.981.22200220021612.236.000.751.48-0.182623.200.712.490.603635.020.674.352.124647.150.636.523.795656.780.596.193.506667.220.556.674.037678.540.518.034.978689.610.479.145.509699.570.439.144.7110706.020.385.643.2311714.380.344.042.3112722.240.301.941.22预预测测200320031736.092746.913758.4747610.185779.9367810.5077911.4888012.0698111.3010829.8611838.9812847.94预预测测200420041856.582867.403878.9648810.6758910.4369010.9979111.9789212.5599311.80109410.3511959.4712968.43预预测测20042004b=0.0411a=3.2628