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1、Chinacom Financial Forecast（中通公司财务预测）All figures in millions of RMB（所有数字以百万人民币计）Assumptions（假假设设）Income statement（损损益益表表）Cellular%growth（手机业务增长率）Paging%growth（呼机业务增长率）Long-distance data and internet%growth（长途数据和因特网业务增长率）Telecommunication products%growth（电信设备业务增长率）Leased lines%of telecom revenues（租线费
2、用/电信服务收入）Interconnection charges%of telecom revenues（互联费用/电信服务收入）Depreciation%of last years net PP&E（折旧/上一年的固定资产净值）Amortisation amount(RMB)（摊销费用，人民币）Personnel%of total revenues（员工费用/总收入）SG&A costs%of total revenues（一般管理销售费用/总收入）Cost of telecommunication products%of telecom products revenue（电信设备成本/电信
3、设备收入）Other income and expenses amount（其他收入和费用）Taxation rate（税率）Minority interests income growth%（少数股东权益收入增长率）Weighted average number of shares outstanding（加权平均已发行普通股数）Assets（资资产产）Interest rate on cash（现金的利率）Cash and short-term securities%of total revenue（现金和短期证券/总收入）Accounts receivable%of total reve
4、nues（应收帐款/总收入）Receivables from third party telecoms%of telecom revenues（应收第三方电信帐款/电信服务收入）Inventories%of telecom product costs（存货/电信设备成本）Other current assets%of total revenues（其他流动资产/总收入）Capital expenditure%of total revenues（资本性支出/总收入）Cost method investments amount（成本法投资）Other long-term assets%growth
5、（其他长期资产增长率）Liabilities（负负债债）Interest rate on revolver and short-term debt（循环贷款和短期债务的利率）Short-term debt issuance(repayment)（短期债务发行（偿还）Advances from customers%of cellular and pager revenue（顾客预付款/手机和呼机业务收入）Payables and accrued liabilities%of expenses(excl.depn.and amort.)（应付帐款和应计负债/不含折旧和摊销的费用）Payables
6、to third party telecoms%of telecom revenue（应付给第三方电信的帐款/电信服务收入）Other current liabilities amount（其他流动负债）Long-term bank loans issuance(repayment)（长期银行贷款发行（偿还）Long-term bank and Chinacom loans interest rate（长期银行贷款利率）Other long-term liabilities%of total revenues（其他长期负债/总收入）Equity（股股东东权权益益）Share capital i
7、ncrease(decrease)（股本金增长（减少）HistHistProjProjProjProj31-12月-0231-12月-0331-12月-0431-12月-0531-12月-0631-12月-0787.8%23.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%(0.2%)(42.0%)(15.6%)(10.1%)(8.6%)3.1%20.0%20.0%16.0%12.0%0.8%1.0%(5.0%)(12.0%)(18.2%)(4.1%)(6.6%)(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.5%)(6.5%)(8.4%)(9.1%)(9.0%)(9.0%)(9.0%)(9.0%)(15.1%)(16.6%
8、)(16.6%)(16.6%)(16.6%)(1,000.8)(1,150.0)(800.0)(600.0)(400.0)(400.0)(8.2%)(6.8%)(8.6%)(8.6%)(9.4%)(9.4%)(28.6%)(37.2%)(37.0%)(38.0%)(39.0%)(40.0%)(99.7%)(96.4%)(100.0%)(100.0%)(100.0%)(100.0%)(16.0)(20.0)0.00.00.00.0(27.8%)(33.0%)(28.0%)(28.0%)(28.0%)(28.0%)(93.0%)5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%12,552.012,552.012,
9、552.012,552.012,552.012,552.03.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%47.9%15.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%10.7%9.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%3.5%1.8%6.9%6.9%6.9%6.9%(144.4%)(72.5%)(60.0%)(60.0%)(60.0%)(60.0%)7.6%4.8%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%105.5%39.8%60.0%40.0%30.0%30.0%130.70.0130.7130.7130.7130.7(21.1%)0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%(5.80%)(5.80%)(5.80%)(5
10、.80%)1,829.0(7,975.0)(3,000.0)0.00.019.0%13.8%19.0%19.0%19.0%19.0%(90.1%)(38.7%)(88.1%)(88.1%)(88.1%)(88.1%)5.6%3.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6,095.06,259.00.00.00.00.0(1,473.0)0.00.00.00.0(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)0.4%0.2%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.00.00.00.00.0ProjProjProj31-12月-0831-12月-0931-12月-109.0%8.0%8.0%(6.7%)(
11、5.4%)(5.4%)11.0%10.0%10.0%(17.4%)(17.4%)(17.4%)(8.0%)(10.0%)(11.0%)(9.0%)(9.0%)(9.0%)(16.6%)(16.6%)(16.6%)0.00.00.0(9.4%)(10.0%)(11.0%)(40.0%)(40.0%)(40.0%)(100.0%)(100.0%)(100.0%)0.00.00.0(30.0%)(30.0%)(30.0%)5.0%5.0%5.0%12,552.012,552.012,552.03.00%3.00%3.00%3.0%3.0%3.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%6.9%6.9%6.9%
12、(60.0%)(60.0%)(60.0%)5.9%5.9%5.9%22.0%21.0%25.0%130.7130.7130.70.0%0.0%0.0%(5.80%)(5.80%)(5.80%)0.00.00.019.0%19.0%19.0%(88.1%)(88.1%)(88.1%)6.0%6.0%6.0%0.00.00.00.00.00.0(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)0.5%0.5%0.5%0.00.00.0Chinacom Financial Forecast（中通公司财务预测）All figures in millions of RMB（所有数字以百万人民币计）HistHistCa
13、lculations（计计算算）31-12月-0231-12月-03Net property plant and equipment（厂厂房房设设备备等等固固定定资资产产净净值值）Beginning balance（期初额）Capital expenditure（资本性支出）42,809.026,888.0Depreciation（折旧）Ending balance（期末额）118,105.0Retained earnings（留留存存收收益益）Beginning balance（期初额）Net income（净利润）Ending balance（期末额）67,029.0Minority in
14、terest（少少数数股股东东权权益益）Beginning balance（期初额）Minority interest income（少数股东权益收入）Ending balance（期末额）0.0Debt（债债务务）Financing gap(融资缺口)0.0Short-term debt interest rate（短期债务利率）Interest expense on revolver（循环贷款债务利息费用）Short-term debt balance（短期债务）10,975.0Short-term debt interest rate（短期债务利率）Interest expense on
15、 short-term debt（短期债务利息费用）Long-term debt and Chinacom loan balance（长期债务）36,213.0Long-term debt interest rate（长期债务利率）Interest expense on long-term debt （长期债务利息费用）Total indebtedness（总债务）47,188.0Total interest expense（总利息费用）Operating working capital（营营运运资资金金)Accounts receivable（应收帐款）6,072.0Receivables
16、from third party telecoms（应收第三方电信的帐款）1,193.0Inventories（存货）1,580.0Other current assets（其他流动资产）3,266.0Advances from customers（向顾客预收帐款）8,243.0Payables and accrued liabilities（应付帐款和应计负债）16,323.0Payables to third party telecoms（应付给第三方电信帐款）1,930.0Other current liabilities（其他流动负债）6,259.0 Operating working
17、 capital（营营运运资资金金）(20,644.0)Interest income（利利息息收收入入）Cash balance（总现金）10,133.0Interest rate on cash（现金的利率）Interest income（利息收入）ProjProjProjProjProjProj31-12月-0431-12月-0531-12月-0631-12月-0731-12月-0831-12月-09118,105.0147,171.9161,272.7167,504.1175,844.3175,473.248,672.438,531.333,002.736,145.928,819.12
18、9,668.2(19,605.4)(24,430.5)(26,771.3)(27,805.7)(29,190.1)(29,128.5)147,171.9161,272.7167,504.1175,844.3175,473.2176,012.967,029.072,225.677,902.484,325.992,284.0100,976.35,196.65,676.86,423.57,958.18,692.39,100.372,225.677,902.484,325.992,284.0100,976.3110,076.60.010.521.533.145.358.010.511.011.612.
19、212.813.410.521.533.145.358.071.40.01,462.90.00.00.00.0(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)0.0(42.4)(42.4)0.00.00.03,000.00.00.00.00.00.0(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)(405.3)(87.0)0.00.00.00.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.0(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)
20、(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)39,213.037,675.936,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.0(2,578.1)(2,302.2)(2,215.2)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)8,112.19,632.811,000.912,048.613,099.614,127.75,439.76,496.97,458.88,205.78,949.79,674.61,370.81,302.21,146.0937.4774.3639.64,786.15,683.46,490.57,108.77,728.88,3
21、35.413,671.716,321.418,719.320,557.722,382.024,151.945,020.053,902.263,352.470,053.377,574.186,641.74,730.25,649.56,485.97,135.47,782.38,412.70.00.00.00.00.00.0(43,713.2)(52,757.8)(62,461.4)(69,446.0)(77,186.1)(86,429.1)2,932.32,889.812,093.219,757.337,257.255,300.83%3%3%3%3%3%195.9887.33224.75477.7
22、6855.221388.37Proj31-12月-10176,012.938,117.0(29,218.1)184,911.8110,076.69,743.7119,820.371.414.185.50.0(5.8%)0.00.0(5.8%)0.036,213.0(6.0%)(2,172.8)36,213.0(2,172.8)15,246.810,459.5528.38,995.626,064.695,990.89,095.30.0(95,920.4)65,983.13%1819.26Chinacom Financial Forecast（中通公司财务预测）All figures in mil
23、lions of RMB（所有数字以百万人民币计）HistHistBalance sheet（资资产产负负债债表表）31-12月-0231-12月-03 Cash Balance（现金余额）19,431.010,133.0Accounts receivable（应收帐款）4,327.06,072.0Receivables from third party telecoms（应收第三方电信的帐款）1,348.01,193.0Inventories（存货）3,229.01,580.0Other current assets（其他流动资产）3,080.03,266.0 Total current a
24、ssets（总总流流动动资资产产）31,415.022,244.0Net property plant and equipment（固定资产净值）107,486.0118,105.0Goodwill（商誉）2,366.03,315.0Cost method investments（成本法投资）130.70.0Other long-term assets（其他长期资产）7,824.36,174.0 Total assets（总总资资产产）149,222.0149,838.0Financing Gap（融资缺口）0.00.0Short-term debt（短期债务）9,146.010,975.0A
25、dvances from customers（向顾客预收帐款）6,240.08,243.0Payables and accrued liabilities（应付帐款和应计负债）19,811.016,323.0Taxes payable（应交税金）1,106.01,432.0Payables to third party telecoms（应付给第三方电信帐款）2,152.01,930.0Other current liabilities（其他流动负债）6,095.06,259.0 Total current liabilities（总总流流动动负负债债）44,550.045,162.0Long
26、-term bank loans（长期银行贷款）37,686.036,213.0Other long-term liabilities（其他长期负债）172.0103.0Minority interests（少数股东权益）566.00.0 Total liabilities（总总负负债债）82,974.081,478.0Share capital（股本金）1,331.01,331.0Retained earnings（留存收益）64,917.067,029.0 Shareholders equity（股股东东权权益益）66,248.068,360.0 Total liabilities and
27、 equity（负负债债和和股股东东权权益益）149,222.0149,838.0平平衡衡吗吗？OKOKProjProjProjProjProjProj31-12月-0431-12月-0531-12月-0631-12月-0731-12月-0831-12月-092,932.32,889.812,093.219,757.337,257.255,300.88,112.19,632.811,000.912,048.613,099.614,127.75,439.76,496.97,458.88,205.78,949.79,674.61,370.81,302.21,146.0937.4774.3639.6
28、4,786.15,683.46,490.57,108.77,728.88,335.422,640.926,005.138,189.448,057.767,809.588,078.1147,171.9161,272.7167,504.1175,844.3175,473.2176,012.92,515.01,915.01,515.01,115.01,115.01,115.0130.7130.7130.7130.7130.7130.76,174.06,174.06,174.06,174.06,174.06,174.0178,632.5195,497.5213,513.2231,321.7250,70
29、2.4271,510.60.01,462.90.00.00.00.03,000.00.00.00.00.00.013,671.716,321.418,719.320,557.722,382.024,151.945,020.053,902.263,352.470,053.377,574.186,641.72,025.02,211.92,502.53,099.53,730.73,905.94,730.25,649.56,485.97,135.47,782.38,412.70.00.00.00.00.00.068,446.879,547.991,060.1100,846.0111,469.1123,
30、112.236,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.0405.6481.6550.0602.4655.0706.410.521.533.145.358.071.4105,075.9116,264.1127,856.3137,706.7148,395.1160,103.01,331.01,331.01,331.01,331.01,331.01,331.072,225.677,902.484,325.992,284.0100,976.3110,076.673,556.679,233.485,656.993,615.0102,307.3111,40
31、7.6178,632.5195,497.5213,513.2231,321.7250,702.4271,510.6OKOKOKOKOKOKProj31-12月-1065,983.115,246.810,459.5528.38,995.6101,213.3184,911.81,115.0130.76,174.0293,544.70.00.026,064.695,990.84,181.99,095.30.0135,332.636,213.0762.385.5172,393.41,331.0119,820.3121,151.3293,544.7OKChinacom Financial Forecas
32、t（中通公司财务预测）All figures in millions of RMB（所有数字以百万人民币计）HistHistProjProjProjIncome statement（损损益益表表）31-12月-0231-12月-0331-12月-0431-12月-0531-12月-06Revenue（收入）Cellular（手机）30,612.057,484.070,705.384,846.497,573.3Paging（呼机）2,161.02,157.01,251.11,055.9949.2Long-distance data and internet（长途数据和因特网）5,558.05,7
33、33.06,879.68,255.59,576.4 Telecom revenues（电电信信服服务务收收入入）38,331.065,374.078,836.094,157.8108,099.0Telecommunication products（电信设备）2,243.02,262.02,284.62,170.41,909.9 Total revenues（总总收收入入）40,574.067,636.081,120.696,328.2110,008.9Leased lines（租线费用）(1,583.0)(4,320.0)(4,730.2)(5,649.5)(7,026.4)Interconn
34、ection charges（互联费用）(3,229.0)(5,921.0)(7,095.2)(8,474.2)(9,728.9)Personnel（员工费用）(3,335.0)(4,575.0)(6,976.4)(8,284.2)(10,340.8)SG&A costs（一般管理销售费用）(11,611.0)(25,157.0)(30,014.6)(36,604.7)(42,903.5)Cost of telecommunication products（电信设备成本）(2,236.0)(2,180.0)(2,284.6)(2,170.4)(1,909.9)EBITDA（折折旧旧摊摊销销利利
35、息息税税收收前前的的营营业业利利润润）18,580.025,483.030,019.635,145.238,099.3Depreciation（折旧）(10,255.0)(16,270.0)(19,605.4)(24,430.5)(26,771.3)Amortisation（摊销）(1,000.8)(1,150.0)(800.0)(600.0)(400.0)EBIT（利利息息和和税税收收前前的的营营业业利利润润）7,324.28,063.09,614.210,114.710,928.1Other income and expenses（其他收入和费用）(16.0)(20.0)0.00.00.0
36、Interest income（利息收入）470.0173.0196.087.3224.7Interest expense（利息费用）(1,474.0)(1,936.0)(2,578.1)(2,302.2)(2,215.2)Profit before tax（税税前前利利润润）6,304.26,280.07,232.17,899.88,937.6Taxation（所得税）(1,752.0)(2,073.0)(2,025.0)(2,211.9)(2,502.5)Income before minority interests（少少数数股股东东权权益益前前的的利利润润）4,552.24,207.0
37、5,207.15,687.86,435.1Minority interests（少数股东权益收入）(143.7)(10.0)(10.5)(11.0)(11.6)Net income（净净利利润润）4,408.54,197.05,196.65,676.86,423.5Basic number of shares outstanding（已发行普通股数）12,552.012,552.0Earnings per share（每每股股收收益益）RMB 0.35RMB 0.33ProjProjProjProj31-12月-0731-12月-0831-12月-0931-12月-10107,330.7116
38、,990.4126,349.7136,457.6867.6809.5765.8724.410,725.611,905.413,095.914,405.5118,923.9129,705.3140,211.4151,587.61,562.31,290.51,065.9880.5120,486.2130,995.8141,277.3152,468.0(7,730.1)(10,376.4)(14,021.1)(16,674.6)(10,703.1)(11,673.5)(12,619.0)(13,642.9)(11,325.7)(12,313.6)(14,127.7)(16,771.5)(48,194
39、.5)(52,398.3)(56,510.9)(60,987.2)(1,562.3)(1,290.5)(1,065.9)(880.5)40,970.542,943.542,932.643,511.4(27,805.7)(29,190.1)(29,128.5)(29,218.1)(400.0)0.00.00.012,764.813,753.313,804.014,293.20.00.00.00.0477.8855.21,388.41,819.3(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)11,069.812,435.813,019.613,939.7(3,099.5)
40、(3,730.7)(3,905.9)(4,181.9)7,970.28,705.09,113.79,757.8(12.2)(12.8)(13.4)(14.1)7,958.18,692.39,100.39,743.7Chinacom Financial Forecast（中通公司财务预测）All figures in millions of RMB（所有数字以百万人民币计）HistCash flow statement（现现金金流流量量表表）31-12月-02EBIT（利息和税收前的营业利润）Tax（所得税）Other income and expenses（其他收入和费用）Interest i
41、ncome（利息收入）Interest expense（利息费用）+depreciation（折旧）+amortisation（摊销）Inc(dec)in other long-term liabilities（其他长期负债增加（减少）(Inc)dec in OWC（营运资金减少（增加）Cash flow from operating activities（经经营营活活动动现现金金流流）(Capital expenditure)（资本性支出）(Inc)dec in cost method investments（成本法投资减少（增加）(Inc)dec in other long-term as
42、sets（其他长期资产减少（增加）Cash flow from investing activities（投投资资活活动动现现金金流流）Inc(dec)in short-term debt other than revolver（短期债务增加（减少）Inc(dec)in long-term bank loan（长期债务增加（减少）Inc(dec)in share capital（股本金增加（减少）Cash flow from financing activities（融融资资活活动动现现金金流流）Beginning cash（期初现金额）Net cash flow before financi
43、ng gap（净现金流）Ending cash before financing gap（融资缺口前的期末现金额）Disposition of cash（现现金金分分配配）Required cash（所需现金）Excess Cash（多余现金）Financing Gap（融资缺口）Cash Balance at end of year（年底现金）HistProjProjProjProjProj31-12月-0331-12月-0431-12月-0531-12月-0631-12月-0731-12月-089,614.210,114.710,928.112,764.813,753.3(1,432.0)
44、(2,025.0)(2,211.9)(2,502.5)(3,099.5)0.00.00.00.00.0196.087.3224.7477.8855.2(2,578.1)(2,302.2)(2,215.2)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)19,605.424,430.526,771.327,805.729,190.1800.0600.0400.0400.00.0302.676.068.452.452.523,069.29,044.69,703.66,984.67,740.149,577.340,026.043,668.943,809.946,319.0(48,672.4)(38,531.3)
45、(33,002.7)(36,145.9)(28,819.1)(130.7)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0(48,803.1)(38,531.3)(33,002.7)(36,145.9)(28,819.1)(7,975.0)(3,000.0)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0(7,975.0)(3,000.0)0.00.00.010,133.02,932.31,427.012,093.219,757.3(7,200.7)(1,505.3)10,666.27,664.117,500.010,133.02,932.31,427.01
46、2,093.219,757.337,257.22,433.62,889.83,300.33,614.63,929.9498.70.08,792.916,142.733,327.30.01,462.90.00.00.02,932.32,889.812,093.219,757.337,257.2ProjProj31-12月-0931-12月-1013,804.014,293.2(3,730.7)(3,905.9)0.00.01,388.41,819.3(2,172.8)(2,172.8)29,128.529,218.10.00.051.456.09,243.09,491.347,711.848,7
47、99.3(29,668.2)(38,117.0)0.00.00.00.0(29,668.2)(38,117.0)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.037,257.255,300.818,043.610,682.255,300.865,983.14,238.34,574.051,062.561,409.00.00.055,300.865,983.1Chinacom Financial Forecast（中通公司财务预测）All figures in millions of RMB（所有数字以百万人民币计）HistRatios（比比例例）31-12月-02Key numbers（关关键
48、键数数字字）Total revenues（总收入）40,574.0 EBITDA（折旧摊销利息税收前的营业利润）18,580.0EBIT（利息和税收前的营运利润）7,324.2Tax rate（所得税率）(27.8%)EBIAT（税后利息前的利润）5,288.7Interest expense（利息费用）(1,474.0)Financing Gap（融资缺口）0.0Short-term debt（短期债务）9,146.0Long-term bank loans（长期银行贷款）37,686.0 Shareholders equity（股东权益）66,248.0Profitability（盈盈利利
49、性性）Revenue growth（收入增长率）EBITDA margin on revenue（EBITDA/收入）45.8%EBIT margin on revenue（EBIT/收入）18.1%Return on equity（净资产收益率）6.7%Net operational assets（净营运资产）113,646.0Increase in net operational assets（净营运资产增加额）Increase in EBIAT（EBIAT的增加额）Return on new investment（新投资的回报率）HistProjProjProjProjProj31-12
50、月-0331-12月-0431-12月-0531-12月-0631-12月-0731-12月-0867,636.081,120.696,328.2110,008.9120,486.2130,995.825,483.030,019.635,145.238,099.340,970.542,943.58,063.09,614.210,114.710,928.112,764.813,753.3(33.0%)(28.0%)(28.0%)(28.0%)(28.0%)(30.0%)5,401.46,922.27,282.67,868.29,190.79,627.3(1,936.0)(2,578.1)(2,3