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1、Chapter 11Project ManagementChapter SummaryProjects are actually processes that are performed on an ad hoc basis. The majority of this chapter covers project planning and control. In addition to covering PERT and CPM in detail, the chapter also addresses controlling project cost and performance thro
2、ugh earned value. A final topic is critical chain scheduling.Discussion OutlineI . Defining a ProjectCharacteristics of a projectProcess performed infrequently and ad hoc, with a clear specification of the desired objectiveLimited budget to attain the objective1. Objective is very important to the o
3、rganizationTop-grade resources are often made available to the projectMinimal supervision is exercised and the project professional is given the freedom to decide how to solve his or her portion of the problemPrimary objectives1. CostPerformanceDeadlineReasons for growth in project operations1. More
4、 sophisticated technology - Requires use of project teamsBetter-educated citizens - People are more aware of project management techniquesMore leisure time - People have more time to participate in projectsIncreased accountability - Society has increased its emphasis on the attainment of objectives2
5、. Higher productivity - People and organizations are involved in more activities than ever beforeFaster response to customers - Projects are often more responsive than functionally organized firmsGreater customization for customers - Customers unique needs in terms of service and the facilitating go
6、od can be met better with a projectII Planning the ProjectA. Project portfolio - Aggregate project plan10ABCDEFGHIJKLM1ActivityActivityActivityActivityActivityActivityActivityActivityActivityActivityActivityActivityActivity2ABCDEFGHIJKLM31220.50.30.3312230.50.5114段5Assumption Cells6CompletionSelecte
7、d Formulae:7Time:31.5Cell B7=MAX(B10:B41)8Cell B10=A3+B3+F3+G3+J3+K3+M39PathTimeCounterCell C10=IF(B10=B7,1,0)10ABFGJKM31011ABFGJLM31.51Forecast12ABFIJKM220Cells13ABFIJLM22.50/p14ABHGJKM30015ABHGJLM30.5016ABHIJKM21017ABHIJLM21.5018ACFGJKM29.5019ACFGJLM30020ACFIJKM20.5021ACFIJLM21022ACHGJKM28.5023ACH
8、GJLM29024ACHIJKM19.5025ACHIJLM20026ADFGJKM29.3027ADFGJLM29.8028ADFIJKM20.3029ADFIJLM20.8030ADHGJKM28.3031ADHGJLM28.8032ADHIJKM19.30ABCDEFGHIJKLM33ADHIJLM19.8034AEFGJKM29.3035AEFGJLM29.8036AEFIJKM20.3037AEFIJLM20.8038AEHGJKM28.3039AEHGJLM28.8040AEHIJKM19.3041AEHIJLM19.80The simulation was run 1,000 t
9、imes. The results of the simulation are shown below. The mean completion time was 39.49 months with a standard deviation of 5.98 months.Crystal Ball Report - Textbook EditionNot for Commercial UseSimulation started on 1/26/06 at 15:46:26Simulation stopped on 1/26/06 at 15:46:34Forecast: Time:Cell:B7
10、Summary:Certainty Level is 52.20%Certainty Range is from 30.00 to 40.00 MonthsDisplay Range is from 24.06 to 55.61 MonthsEntire Range is from 21.58 to 60.44 MonthsAfter 1,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.19Statistics:ValueTrials1000Mean39.49Median39.13ModeStandard Deviation5.98Variance35.
11、79Skewness0.29Kurtosis2.84Coeff. of Variability0.15Range Minimum21.58Range Maximum60.44Range Width38.85Mean Std. Error0.192. The frequency chart of the simulation is shown below:Crglal Ball Textbook Edition Not for Commercial Use1,000 Triate.026Forecast: Time:Frequency Chart995 DisplayedT 2624.06313
12、539B447.7255.61Certaintyis 5220% from 30.00 to 40.00 MonthsFrequency3. The probability that the project will be completed within 30 months can be calculated using the Forecast Window of Crystal Ball as 4.50%:Forecast: Time:Crystal Ball Textbook Edition Not for Commercial UseCertainty is4.50% from -I
13、nfinity to 30.00 MonthsCertainty is4.50% from -Infinity to 30.00 MonthsCertainty is4.50% from -Infinity to 30.00 MonthsFrequencyThe probability that the project will take longer than 40 months can be calculated using the Forecast Window of Crystal Ball as 43.30%:Crystal Ball Textbook Edition Not for
14、 CommerciaI UseForecast: Time:Frequency Chart995 Displayede三qpqod24.0631.9539.8447.7255.61Certainty is43.30% from 40.00 to + Infinity Months5Frequency1,000 Trials(a) The probability that the project will take between 30 and 40 months can be calculated using the Forecast Window of Crystal Ball as 52.
15、20%:Forecast: Time:Frequency Chart995 DisplayedCrystal Ball Textbook Edition Not for Commercial Use1,000 TrialsFrequencySuggested Cases/ReadingsCase: Biogen Inc.: rBeta Interferon Manufacturing Process Development (Hvd. 9-696-083)Although there is no teaching note with this case, it is a great examp
16、le of a failing major project and the focus of the analysis is fairly clear: What did Biogen do well? What did they do wrong? Was project management appropriate for them at this time? If not, what should they have done? What were the 3-4 root causes of their problems? What should they do now?Case: T
17、he Project Manager/Customer Interface (U. of Virginia Darden School, TN: UVA-OM-0739TN)This is a good case for illustrating some of the behavioral issues that can arise between a project manager and the customer. In this situation, the project went fine but the customers interference caused major co
18、st overruns that the customer refused to pay. The issue of who on the customers side is authorized to legally speak for the customer becomes a major point of contention in the case.Case: Corning Glass Works: The Z-Glass Project (Hvd. 9-681-091, TN 5-683-045)This case is an excellent portrayal of the
19、 real problems involved in implementing a project, particularly concerning human behavior and organizational issues. The technical analysis of laboratory data (especially footnotes) is crucial in the determination of the correct conclusions in the case also.Case: Northeast Research Laboratories (B)
20、(Hvd. 9-175-184)This is a completely qualitative case involving a post-audit of a project failure. It concerns a meddling customers representative who botches the suppliers project, which the customer then wishes to cancel. It heavily focuses on human behavior and organizational issues.Case: Plus De
21、velopment Corporation (A) (Hvd. 9-687-001, TN 5-690-093)This case concerns the development of a new, innovative disk drive fbr computers and the strategy for producing it. A complication is that the project team is composed of a Japanese manufacturing team and an American design team but they have d
22、ifferent strategies for how to produce the new product.Reading: Whafs Your Projects Real Price Tag? (Q. W. Fleming and J. M. Koppelman, Harvard Business Review, September 2003, pp. 20-22)The authors argue against tracking the cost of a project using only two dimensions: planned costs and actual cost
23、s. They advise companies to use earned-value management and the cost performance index, in particular, to monitor project progress.Reading: Why Good Projects Fail Anyway (N. E. Matta and R. N. Ashkenas, Harvard Business Review9 September 2003, pp. 109-114)This article discusses how difficult it is f
24、or project managers to predict all the activities and work streams that will be needed to complete a project and to integrate all of the disparate activities of a project. The author recommends the use of rapid-results initiatives to produce a measurable result for a small project rather than recomm
25、endations, analyses, or partial solutions fbr a larger project.Reading: Why Bad Projects Are So Hard to Kill (I. Royer, Harvard Business Review, February 2003, pp. 48-56)This article analyzes why companies continue to invest time and resources in projects that are destined for failure. The author di
26、scusses how collective belief among a projects champion and team members lead them to ignore increasingly negative feedback. The author recommends that companies include project skeptics on project teams, establish an early warning system for projects, and recognize the role of the exit champion.Rea
27、ding: Lessons for an Accidental Profession (J.K. Pinto et al.9 Business Horizons, March-April 1995, pp. 41-50)This easy-to-read article gives good general advice about a dozen generic pitfalls in project management for new project managers. Of value to review for old project managers also.Reading: F
28、rom Experience: Linking Projects to Strategy (R.L. Englund and R.J. Graham, Jr. of Product Innovation Management Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 58-69, 1999)An excellent article explaining how Hewlett-Packard used the Project Portfolio Process to winnow its project set down by 70% to just those that were strate
29、gically important to the firm and then managed them to success.Reading: Planning for Crises in Project Management (L.M. Mallak et aL Project Management Journal Vol. 28, No. 2, June 1997)Excellent suggestions for how to handle crises in a project, and how to prepare for the inevitable crises that are
30、 sure to come. Good information for preparing for crises in general.Reading: What it Takes to Be a Good Project Manager (B.Z. Posner, Project Management Journal March 1987)This classic article reports the results of a survey that determined the common problems that project managers face in running t
31、heir project and the skills they found most valuable, then links the two as appropriate.Reading: Balancing Strategy and Tactics in Project Implementation (D.P. Slevin et al” Sloan Management Review, Fall 1987, pp. 33-41)This research paper presents the results of two studies, one about the ten criti
32、cal factors in successful project implementation and another about the role of tactics versus strategy in running a project, with some surprising results. Also, four examples are given of actual firms and their experiences for each of the combinations of tactics/strategy emphasis.Reading: Knowing Wh
33、en to Pull the Plug (B.M. Staw and J. Ross, Harvard Business Review March-April, 1987, pp. 68-74, Reprint #87212)A superb article that identifies the disconnect between managerial logic and human psychology in terminating a failing project. Points out the problem with the hero-worship phenomenon in
34、our society and the troubles it causes.Reading: Matrix Management: Contradictions and Insights (E.W. Larson et al.9 California Management Review, Vol. 29, No. 4,1987)Clearly explains the different types of organization for projects, from Functionally organized to Weak, Balanced, or Strong Matrix, to
35、 Project Team, and the advantages and disadvantages of each. Concludes with recommendations about which to use in various circumstances.Reading: Using Microsoft Project 2000 (T. Pyron et al.9 Que Pub., 2000)Well-rated book for learning MS Project 2000.Reading: Microsoft Project 2000for Dummies (M. D
36、oucette, Hungry Minds, Inc., 2000)Part of the Dummies“ series that explains MS Project 2000 in a clear and straightforward manner.Reading: Critical Chain (E. M. Goldratt, North River Press, 1997)An interesting and controversial approach to project management.Answers to ExercisesPathTimeA-C-I7 daysA-
37、D-G-J13 daysB-E-G-J11 daysB-F-H-J10 daysThe critical path is A-D-G-J at 13 days. The activities on this path should be monitored most closely.The time to complete the 4 paths is now:PathTimeA-C-I5.5 daysA-D-G-J11.5 daysB-E-G-J12.5 daysB-F-H-J11.5 daysThe critical path is now B-E-G-J. The project com
38、pletion is expected to be 12.5 days.Activities G & J from the original critical path are still critical, while A & D are no longer critical.ActivityTesTefTlsTlfSlackA04040B03252C4510116D49490E37592F34673G9129120H497123I5711136J121312130Path Slacks:PathSlackA-C-I6 daysA-D-G-J0 daysB-E-G-J2 daysB-F-H-
39、J3 daysExercise 3Precedence Diagiam:Activity Expected Times, Variances, & Standard Deviations:ABCDEFG1Standard2ActivityOptimisticMost LikelyPessimisticteVarianceDeviation31-251111101141-3101010100051-425851162-6171374273-6441051183-7471071193-5222200104-506651111572814842126-71474111314Formulas:15Ce
40、ll E3=(B3+(C3*4)+D3)/6 copy tocdlsE4:E1216Cell F3=(D3-B3)/6)八2 copy to cells F4:F1217Cell G3=9QRT(F3) copytocellsG4:G12Path Expected Times, Variances, & Standard Deviations:PathPath Expected TimePath VariancePath Standard DeviationPath Expected Time + 2.33 Standard Deviations1-2-6-72162.4526.711-3-6
41、-71921.4122.291-3-7171119.331-3-5-7204224.661 -4-5-71862.4523.71B. Project life cycleStretched-S life cycle formProgress is slow at first, gathers speed during implementation, and then slows down as project completion draws near because people are being drawn off the projectTermination near the end of the project or cutting the budget of this type of project will have minimal impact1. Exponential formAfter project initiation, there is continuous activity, but there is no final output until the end when all of the elemental parts come togetherTermination near the end of the