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1、2022 LIDAR INNOVATION TECHNOLOGY AND INDUSTRY全球自动驾驶和激光雷达市场趋势分析标普全球资深首席分析师 陈光远Owen.Chen20 Sep 2022每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。Outline Global Light Vehicle Production Forecast Market Analysis of Global Automated
2、 Driving Automotive LIDAR Technology and TrendsCopyright 2022 by S&P Global Mobility, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved.2Our six divisions focus on distinct markets-and together, they deliver unmatched breadth and depth.3We provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotiv
3、e data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility.4Part 1:Global Light Vehicle Production ForecastDemand recovery out of COVID is impacted by other
4、 new headwindsGlobal light vehicle production Sept 2022110Pre-COVID forecast January 2020September 2022 forecast10090807060201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Source: S&P Global Mobility Light Vehicle Production 2022 S&P GlobalForecast revisions by yea
5、r and factor versus Feb 20222022202320242025202620272028202920300-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 Direct Loss, Russia & Ukraine Prod Supply Chain Losses Demand DestructionSource: S&P Global Mobility Light Vehicle Production 2022 S&P GlobalTechnical or not, industry is operating at recessionaryFollowing Ukraine cris
6、is, the long term outlook islevels with 38M vehicles cut from 2020-22dominated by demand destruction effectsS&P Global Mobility 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry6Analog chip supply pressure continues, especially as the industry electrifiesAverage number of MCU and Analog chips per carAna
7、log chipsMicrocontrollers (MCUs)Source: S&P Global Mobility, WSTS (Jul-22) 2022 S&P GlobalAverage number of Analog chips per car by segment and propulsion system Electric Hybrid-Full Hybrid-Mild ICE: Stop/Start ICEABCDEFSource: S&P Global Mobility 2022 S&P GlobalIndustry should not be fooled by fals
8、e signs of relief on chip supply constraintsChip shortage will not solve itself with economic slowdown and higher automotive allocation is momentaryS&P Global Mobility 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry7Supply-side factors constrain industry capacity Supply chain challenges abound COVID l
9、ockdowns, Ukraine conflict, raw materials availability, energy prices and inflation, extreme weather, and Chip shortage remains central undercurrent to overall production outlook Lead times are still at historic highsbetween 3x and 4x the long term average Average number of chips per car heavily ori
10、ented towards analog over microcontrollernow and future Burst of CAPEX in 2022/23 will only add significant new capacity from 2024/25 Chip industry concerned about potential over-capacity imbalanceinventory burning vs buildingS&P Global Mobility 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry8Part 2:M
11、arket Analysis of Global Automated Driving全球自动驾驶政策和商业化Cruise和百度在美国、中国实现无人robotaxi商业化运营； 本田和奔驰在日本和日德国投放乘用车SAE Level 3自动驾驶功能2022年8月：中国深圳允许乘用车SAE LEVEL 3级自动驾驶汽车上路；2022年6月：美国批准Cruise L4无2022年8月：武汉和重庆允许L4无人robotaxi商业人robotaxi在加州的商业化运营化收费运营，百度为国内首家获准的企业；2021年：德国允许乘用车SAE LEVEL 3级自动驾驶汽 车上路；最高限速60km/h；2022年：
12、梅赛德斯-奔驰推出Drive Pilot功能S级轿车实现L3级自动驾驶；所用激光雷达为Valeo Scala Gen 2;ALKS法规拟将L3场景下最高限速从60km/h提升到130km/h; 潜在的激光雷达提供商包括Valeo, Luminar,Innoviz截至到2022 Q3, 已商业化的L3/L4车型全部搭载激光雷达 2020年：日本允许乘用车 SAE LEVEL 3级自动驾驶汽车上路；2021年：本田宣布投放100量 Lengen Sensing Elite功能具备SAE Level 3级自动驾驶车型，供消费者租赁；最高限速40km/h, 所用激光雷达为Valeo Scala Gen
13、 1;S&P Global Mobility 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry10Autonomy Level Forecast shows steady transition towards automated drivingQ4 forecast updates will add L2+ features and continue to reflect aggressive shift towards L2 and L2+Autonomy Level Sales Forecast, GlobalAutomated Driving L
14、evel Share, Global2021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033202120272033L0-L1L2L3L4L2L3L4Source: IHS Markit, Autonomy Forecasts, August 2022 2022 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit, Autonomy Forecasts, August 2022 2022 IHS MarkitS&P Global Mobility 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry11
15、Maslows hierarchy of needs in automated drivingS&P Global Mobility Q3 database will include L2+ highway/urban, L3 highway/urban, L4 highway/urban/parkingComfort NeedsSafety NeedsSAE L5Fully autonomous driving(ODD w/o limitation)SAE LEVEL 4Robotaxi/Robotruck Machin-only drivingSAE LEVEL 3Human-machin
16、e co-drivingIndustry LEVEL 2+L2+ in ChinaNOA HighwayNOA UrbanSummon/Memory parkingSAE LEVEL 2ACC+LCAPASAE LEVEL 1ACCLCSAE LEVEL 0AEBFCW12Feature evolution within Level 2 without crossing over into Level 3 liabilityL2+ Highway ScenarioL2+ Urban ScenarioPoint-to-point pilot feature in highway roadPoin
17、t-to-point pilot feature in urban roadConstruction zoneRoundabout go throughToll / service stationRight/U turnL2 FunctionMerge / Cut inUnprotected left turnVRU avoidance & nudgeOvertake system initiatedLane change driver initiatedTraffic light stop/goLane centeringOn/off ramp system initiatedPull ov
18、erAdaptive cruise controlLane change system initiated Vehicle can control longitudinally andEnhancements to the L2 ApplicationEnhancements to the L2 Applicationlaterally to adjust velocity or distance System reacts to and controls both System reacts to and controls both axeswithin the same driving l
19、aneaxes of travel in more situations andof travel with greater awareness: Lane change possible whenwith deeper situational awarenesso Traffic signals and intersectionstriggered by driver with limitations on Often removes driver requirement tooWider VRU detection arearoad types, separation of oncomin
20、ginteract with steering at set intervals(cyclist, two-wheel, pedestrian)traffic, intersections, signals and more Lane change triggered by systemo Follow in absence of lane markingsoTurns, roundabouts, and more13L3 technology demonstration vs L2+ highway / urban navigation pilotSAELevelsL3Technology
21、DemonstrationL3 within driving laneplayersHondaMBBMWLegend L3 S&EQS L3I7 L3Under DevelopmentNomenclature:NOA: Navigate On AutopilotNGP: Navigation Guided PilotU-ANP: Urban-Apollo Navigation PilotNAD: NIO Autonomous DrivingNDA: Navigational Driving AssistNOA: Navigate On AutopilotH-ANP: Highway-Apoll
22、o Navigation PilotL3 w/ lane changein 130km/hMBBMWL2 + Highway pilotNGPGACWEYNGPNOHTeslaXpengNIOLiNOAXpilot 3.0NOPNOACadillacVW L2+MB L2+Ultra-CruiseL4highway/urban/parkingL2 + Urban pilotArcfox Changan GACTeslaXpengNIOJIDUU-ANPFSD Beta Xpilot3.5/4NADL2Extended User Experience with More Driving Scen
23、ariosACC+LCHighway w/o lane changeHighway Use CaseUrban Use Case14Next-generation cars are 2x as likely to assist and automateBased on 46 tracked applications from basic ADAS to automated driving use casesApplication growth driven by mandates will impact other regions2018L2-Highway16represents a mor
24、e14traditional optiongrowth trajectory121086420EU - AEBNA - AEBCN - AEBEU - AEBNA - AEBCN - AEBEU - DMSNA - DMSCN - DMSEU - L2HNA - L2HCN - L2HPEDPEDPEDNote: AEB: Automatic Emergency Braking AEB-PED: AEB Pedestrian20212027DMS: Driver Facial Monitoring System L2H: Level 2 Highway AutomationEU: West,
25、Central, East Europe NA: North America CN: Greater ChinaSource: IHS Markit, Autonomy Forecasts, August 2022 2022 IHS MarkitAverage Apps per Vehicle1614121086420EUNACN20212027Source: IHS Markit,Autonomy Forecasts,August 2022 2022 IHS MarkitS&P Global Mobility 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Indu
26、stry15Consumer adoption is critically importantbut so is proper consumer educationFeature Desirability for Automated Driving Use Cases Percent of total responsesFully automated parking (L2)Highway automated driving (L2)City automated driving (L2)Remote automatic parking (L2)Unsupervised highway auto
27、mated driving (L3)Unsupervised city automated driving (L3)Remote valet automated parking (L4)Self-driving car (L4)01020304050607080Note: N=7,812 (US 1,000; UK 1,003; DE 987; CN 994; JP 933; TH 906; IN 1,010; BR 979)Very or Somewhat DesirableSource: S&P Global Mobility, Autonomy Consumer Survey 2022
28、2022 IHS MarkitS&P Global Mobility 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry16Opinions on autonomous vehicles73%of China based respondents wouldride in and purchase a self-drivingvehicle that does not require a driveror driver supervisionNote: 1,000 new vehicle intenders per countrySource: IHS MarkitPercent of Respondents Who Would Ride In and PurchaseVersus Respondents Who Would Not80