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1、Unpacking Impact of COVID-19 on Vietnamese Firms: Evidence from a Novel SurveyEra Dabla-Norris, Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen, Yuanyan Sophia Zhang, Thuy Dinh Pham, Nga Huong Phi, Duong Thuy Nguyen, and Tuan Danh DuongIMF Working Papers describe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit
2、comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management.2022SEP每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号
3、回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。 2022 International Monetary FundWP/22/201IMF Working PaperAsia and the Pacific DepartmentUnpacking Impact of COVID-19 on Vietnamese Firms: Evidence from a Novel Survey Prepared by Era Dabla-Norris, Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen, Yuanyan Sophia Zhang,1 Thuy Dinh Pham, Nga Huong Phi, Duong T
4、huy Nguyen, and Tuan Danh DuongAuthorized for distribution by Era Dabla-NorrisSeptember 2022IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not
5、necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.ABSTRACT: Using a unique representative panel survey of Vietnamese enterprises in 2020, we find that the pandemic and associated government support package had a heterogenous impact across firms. The government suppor
6、t package, particularly tax cuts and deferrals, helped alleviate short term stress, but tight ineligibility criteria and cumbersome procedures impacted take-up. Econometric analysis suggests that the likelihood of accessing support was associated with firm size, with larger firms more likely to rece
7、ive support compared to smaller firms, even after controlling for sector, firm ownership and financial health. Credit support was effective in alleviating liquidity constraints and allaying firm pessimism only for large firms. Interestingly, firms experiencing sales losses and those with lower pre-c
8、risis productivity were more likely to resort to digitalization, suggesting that the pandemic could help narrow productivity gaps.JEL Classification Numbers:G30, G38, H71, L25, L53COVID-19; policy support; firms copingKeywords:strategies; digitalizationAuthors E-Mail Address:edablanorrisimf.org, ang
9、uyen4imf.org, yzhangimf.org, duongntgso.gov.vn, ngaphgso.gov.vn, tuanddgso.gov.vn1 The authors are grateful to Nguyen Thi Van Anh for the excellent coordination, Anne-Marie Gulde-Wolfe, Francois Painchaud, and participants at the IMF APD department seminar, the Interdepartmental Working Group on Cor
10、porate Sector Issues, and the General Statistics Office of Vietnam seminar for discussions. All remaining errors are our own.INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND2WORKING PAPERSUnpacking Impact of COVID-19 on Vietnamese Firms: Evidence from a Unique SurveyPrepared by Era Dabla-Norris, Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen, Yua
11、nyan Sophia Zhang, Thuy Dinh Pham, Nga Huong Phi, Duong Thuy Nguyen, and Tuan Danh DuongINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND3Table of Contents1. Introduction _52. Data and Empirical Approach _7 Survey Description _7 Empirical Approach _83. Survey Results at First Glance _10 Impact of COVID-19 on Business Act
12、ivities _10 Response to the Crisis: Self Coping Strategies and Government Support _124. Empirical results _15 Likelihood of Receiving Government Support _15 Effectiveness of Government Support _16 What Firms Engaged in Digitalization? _195. Concluding Remarks _20 References _28INTERNATIONAL MONETARY
13、 FUND41. IntroductionCOVID-19 presented an unprecedented shock to firms around the world. In response, governments put in place a range of fiscal and financial support measures to keep businesses afloat and limit the economic fallout.2 Which firms benefited from policy support? How effective were fi
14、rms self-coping strategies and government support measures in alleviating liquidity constraints, reducing uncertainty, and allowing firms to survive? Was the impact heterogenous across policies and adjustment strategies? Answers to these questions are critical to understand the reallocation channels
15、 at work and to design better policies that can help smooth the impact of future shocks.In this paper, we address these questions by relying on a large-scale representative survey of enterprises in Vietnam, a dynamic emerging market economy. Although Vietnam was among the top performing countries in
16、 2020 due to its early and decisive pandemic containment policies, the corporate sector was hit hard. Business sales plunged by 60 percent in the first four months of 2020 (GSO, 2020). In response, the government of Vietnam introduced wide-ranging measures to support affected firms. Fiscal support f
17、or firms (estimated at around 3.7 percent of GDP in 2020) largely took the form of tax cuts and deferrals (IMF, 2021). In addition, a credit support package of around 3.9 percent of GDP comprising loan restructuring and interest rate reductions was also rolled out in early 2020.We exploit two waves
18、of an enterprise survey conducted in 2020 to examine the impact of COVID-19 on firms and evaluate the efficacy of government support. The survey provides information on the impact of the pandemic on businesses as well as firm access to policy support by size, sector and firm ownership, including sel
19、f-reported constraints for over 100,000 firms in each round. Further, the survey includes information on self-coping adjustments undertaken by firms. We first empirically examine how the likelihood of receiving support differs by firm characteristics and economic performance. We then examine the lik
20、elihood of firm survival in light of government support measures and various self-coping strategies adopted by firms. Finally, we examine how the likelihood of adopting digitalization varies across firms and sectors.Our findings reveal that policy take-up rates were initially low mainly due to tight
21、 ineligibility criteria and cumbersome procedures.3 Results from a probit regression model show that the likelihood of receiving policy support was generally higher for contact-intensive sectors and larger firms compared to other sectors and firms. We also find evidence that fiscal support2 Accordin
22、g to the IMF, fiscal measures introduced since January 2020 amounted to 16.4 percent of total global GDP; of which, almost 40 percent were in the form of below-the-line measures. IMF Fiscal Monitor Database of Country Fiscal Measures in Response to the COVID-19 pandemic (https:/www.imf.org/en/Topics
23、/imf-and-covid19/Fiscal-Policies-Database-in-Response-to-COVID-19)3 As the pandemic progressed, firms in Vietnam seem to have used government support policies better, with more firms reporting having received some support from the government in September 2021 compared to 2020 (World Bank, 2022).INTE
24、RNATIONAL MONETARY FUND5helped reduce uncertainty and allowed both large and small firms to remain afloat, but the size bias was particularly pronounced for credit policies. Controlling for firm size and industry, the likelihood of receiving policy support was not significantly associated with chang
25、es in sales during the crisis, or with pre-pandemic weaknesses. However, we find evidence that support was tilted towards firms reporting larger employment losses and those with higher pre-pandemic productivity. These results suggest that the effectiveness of the support package was mixed.Our paper
26、also sheds lights on the effectiveness of firms self-coping strategies. Adjustment along the extensive margin by ceasing operations was limited. Instead, firms initially adjusted along the intensive margin (e.g., by granting leave, reducing working hours). The nature of adjustment, however, shifted
27、from short-term employment responses in the early stage of the pandemic to longer-term measures (e.g., layoffs, developing new products, services or processes, transforming their supply chain, and becoming more digital) as the pandemic progressed. Among firms self-coping strategies, measures to redu
28、ce labor costs were most effective in alleviating liquidity constraints, but larger firms also focused on developing new products, services or processes, and transforming their supply chain. Both small and large firms resorted to digitalization to manage the fallout, but the likelihood of investing
29、in digitalization was higher for less productive firms and those experiencing sales losses, particularly in contact-intensive sectors.Our paper is related to studies that examine firm-level impacts and the ex ante effectiveness of government support using pre-pandemic data. Gourinchas et al. (2020,
30、2021) estimate the impact of the crisis on business failures among European SMEs and evaluate government support using a cost minimizing theoretical framework. Shivardi and Romano (2020) use firms balance sheet data from Italy; Miyakawa et al. (2021) use a simulation exercise to estimate firm exits
31、in Japan. Kroeger et al. (2021) use similar simulations to infer the impact of COVID-19 on Vietnamese firms using the corporate census data. In this paper we assess whether support actually reached intended beneficiaries, identify reasons for not accessing policy support, and link policies with firm
32、 performance.Our paper is more closely related to recent studies that explore the effectiveness of policy support and self-coping strategies using direct evidence from pandemic-related surveys. Cirera et al. (2021) using firm-level data for 120,000 firms in 60 developing countries, find that policy
33、support has been limited to a small number of firms. Apedo-Amah et al. (2020) using the same data show that a large number of firms worldwide increased the use of digital platforms or invested in new digital solutions in response to the pandemic. Other studies have focused on advanced or large emerg
34、ing market countries. Dai et al. (2020) document revenue loss, business closures, and layoffs in China; Bartik et al. (2020), and Fairlie (2020) provide evidence for the United States; Harasztosi et al. (2022) for a sample of European countries; and Lalinsky and Pal (2022) for Slovakia. Our paper fo
35、cuses on firm characteristics and the effectiveness ofINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND6government support using evidence from a large-scale, representative COVID-19 survey in a developing economy.4The remainder of the paper proceeds as follows. Section 2 describes the dataset and methodology used for the
36、 empirical analysis. Section 3 presents stylized facts. Section 4 presents the results of the empirical analysis, while Section 5 concludes.2. Data and Empirical Approach Survey DescriptionTo assess the impact of COVID-19 on firms, two waves of the COVID-19 Enterprise Survey were conducted in 2020 b
37、y the General Statistics Office (GSO) of Vietnam. The survey was first carried out in April 2020, and the second wave in September 2020. Figure 1 plots the Google mobility index in 2020-21, with shaded areas indicating the periods when the two rounds of the survey were conducted. As shown in the fig
38、ure, economic activity fell sharply as strict containment measures were implemented during the first survey round in April. By September, most containment measures had been lifted, and domestic activity rebounded strongly. However, while the domestic economy fared well, other trading partners strugg
39、led with infection surges and lockdowns. This translated into lower external demand and supply chain disruptions, disproportionately impacting larger, export-oriented firms.Figure 1: Vietnams Google Mobility Index(7-day moving average)Sources: Google LLC Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. A
40、ccessed 16 November 2021. IMF Staff Calculations.4 Beck et al (2020) survey 630 listed firms across ten emerging market economies, including Vietnam, to gauge how firms responded to the pandemic. By contrast, our survey covers both listed and non-listed firms and is nationally representative.INTERNA
41、TIONAL MONETARY FUND7The purpose of the survey was to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on firm operations and to assess awareness of and access to government support. The survey was announced and distributed online for all formal enterprises who were either operating or had temporarily ceased operati
42、ons. The survey was conducted over 10 days on a voluntary basis, but care was taken to ensure that it was broadly representative. The survey covered 126,000 firms and 162,000 firms in April and September, respectively, accounting for 20 percent of the total formal enterprises in the country. As can
43、be seen in Table 1, the survey sample is broadly representative with 91.6 percent of the sample comprising micro and SMEs, tracking closely the firm distribution in the national corporate census.5 Importantly, the two rounds of survey allow us to construct a panel of approximately 25,000 firms to ex
44、amine firm survival.The surveys contain detailed information on firm characteristics including ownership, size, industry, and location and the impact of the pandemic on revenues, employment, input shortages, and access to consumption markets. In addition, the surveys capture information on adjustmen
45、ts to cope with the fallout, including changing operating status/business scales, layoffs, change in key products, and adoption of digitalization as well as access to policy support.Empirical ApproachWe employ a number of empirical approaches to evaluate the impact of policy support and firms own coping strategies. In the baseline estimation strategy, we estimate the likelihood of the firm receiving policy support using a probit regression:Probit( ) = + + + + + + + + (1)where takes the value of 1 if firm i received policy supp