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1、World Energy Outlook Special ReportCoal in Net ZeroTransitionsStrategies for rapid,secure and people-centred change每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,
2、gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries
3、,11 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agenc
4、y Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium CanadaCzech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland ItalyJapanKorea Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of Trkiy
5、eUnited Kingdom United StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineForeword 3ForewordAstheenergysectorssinglelargestsourceofcarbondioxideemi
6、ssions,coalisattheheartoftheglobalconversationonenergyandclimate.AllscenariosmodelledbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)forthefutureofenergysupplyanddemandthatareconsistentwithinternationalclimategoalsfeaturearapiddeclineinglobalcoalemissions.Withoutsuchadecline,itwillbeimpossibletoavoidsevereimpact
7、sfromachangingclimate.AsournewanalysisinthisWorldEnergyOutlookSpecialReportmakesclear,morethan95%oftodaysglobalcoalconsumptionoccursincountriesthathavepledgedtoachievenetzeroemissions.Atthesametime,however,thedatashowthattheworldisfarfromheadingdecisivelyinthatdirection.Globalcoaluseandemissionshave
8、essentiallyplateauedatahighlevel,withnodefinitivesignsofanimminentreduction.Infact,coaluseinsomecountrieshasseenamodestuptickasaresultofthecurrentglobalenergycrisis.Evenifthisistemporary,asouranalysissuggests,itisaworryingsignofhowfarofftracktheworldisinits efforts to put emissions into decline towa
9、rds net zero especially the narrowbutachievablegoalofdoingsoby2050.The current situation in energy markets underscores the huge challenges of reducingemissionswhilemaintainingenergysecurity.Renewableenergyoptionssuchassolarandwindarethemostcosteffectivenewsourcesofelectricitygenerationinmostmarkets,
10、butdespitetheirimpressivelyrapidgrowthinrecentyears,theyhavenotyetbroughtaboutadeclineincoalsglobalemissions.Reducingglobalcoalemissionswhileensuringreliableandaffordableenergysuppliesandtacklingthesocialconsequencesofthischangewillrequireadedicatedanddeterminedpolicyeffortbygovernments.Multiplechal
11、lengesremain.Inmanycountries,thewayinwhichmarketsandcontractshavebeendesignedmeanthatcoalplants are effectively shielded from competition.In the industrial sector,acceleratedinnovationiscrucialtobringtomarketthetechnologiesneededtodrivedowncoalemissionsinkeyareassuchassteelandcement.Buildingupcleane
12、nergyassetstoreplacecoalisabsolutelyessentialtoreachenvironmentalgoalsandsupporteconomicgrowthwhilesafeguardingenergysecurity.Atthesametime,carefullydesignedpoliciesandgovernmentcoordinationwithotherstakeholderssuchasindustryandlabourorganisationsarefundamentaltoenableworkersandcommunitiestoadjustto
13、changesaffectingthecoalindustry,whichhasdeeplinkstojobsandeconomicdevelopment in coalproducing regions.These challenges are especially significant indeveloping economies where electricity demand is growing rapidly,coal is often theincumbentfuelforelectricitygeneration,andindustrialusesofcoalareonthe
14、rise.Thisisoneofthereasonswhy,iftheinternationalcommunityfailstomanagecoaltransitionsappropriately,Iseearealriskoffracturesemergingbetweensomeadvancedanddevelopingeconomies,which could lead to damaging geopolitical rifts globally.There are someencouragingsignsofinternationalcollaborationinthediscuss
15、ionsonJustEnergyTransitionPartnershipswithSouthAfrica,Indonesiaandothermajoremergingeconomies.Buttheresmuch more to be done to match funding with needs and to make progress onimplementation.IEA.CC BY 4.0.4 World Energy Outlook|Special Report ThisSpecialReportisdesignedtoprovidepragmatic,realworldgui
16、danceonhowpolicymakerscanachieveareductionincoalemissionswithoutharmingtheireconomiesorenergysecurity.Itsanalysiscoversarangeofpolicyandtechnologyareas,includingthepotentialfor carbon capture,utilisation and storage.And it offers recommendations to improvefinancingforthephasingdownofcoalandtoaddress
17、thesocialandemploymentaspectsofthistransition.Thereportmakesitclearthatthereisnoonesingleapproachtoputtingcoalemissionsintodeclinebutarangeofapproachestailoredtonationalcircumstances.The report benefitted not only from the IEAs unparalleled energy data and modellingcapabilitiesbutalsotheinputofaHigh
18、LevelAdvisoryGroupofglobalenergy,climateandfinanceleadersthatIconvenedearlierthisyear.ThisadvisorygroupwaschairedbyMichaelR.Bloomberg,theUNSecretaryGeneralsSpecialEnvoyforClimateAmbitionandSolutions,andcochairedbyArifinTasrif,MinisterofEnergyandMineralResourcesofIndonesia,whichcurrentlyholdstheG20Pr
19、esidency,andTeresaRiberaRodrguez,DeputyPrimeMinisterandMinisterfortheEcologicalTransitionandtheDemographicChallengeofSpain.Iwouldliketothankthechair,cochairsandallthemembersoftheadvisorygroupfortheimportantperspectivesandstrategicinsightstheyprovidedforthereport.TheIEAisdeeplycommittedtosupportinggo
20、vernmentsaroundtheworldastheynavigatethecurrentglobalenergycrisisandseektotackleclimatechange.Ibelievethisreportwillbeavaluabletoolineffortstodesignpoliciesthatsupportsecure,affordableandfairtransitions to clean energy.In particular,the social and employment aspects of thesetransitionsisanimportanta
21、ndexpandingareaofworkfortheIEA,asreflectedbyourGlobalCommissiononPeopleCentredCleanEnergyTransitions,ourCleanEnergyLabourCouncilandourWorldEnergyEmploymentreport.ImverygratefulforthededicationandexpertiseoftheIEAteamwhoproducedthisSpecialReport under the exemplary leadership of my colleagues Laura C
22、ozzi and Tim Gould.Istronglythankandcommendthemforthisvitalcontributiontotheinternationalenergyandclimateconversationatsuchapivotalmoment.DrFatihBirolExecutiveDirectorInternationalEnergyAgencyIEA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements 5AcknowledgementsThisstudywaspreparedbytheDirectorateofSustainability,Technol
23、ogyandOutlooksincooperationwithotherdirectoratesandofficesoftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).ThestudywasdesignedanddirectedbyLauraCozzi,ChiefEnergyModellerandHeadofDivisionforEnergyDemandOutlook,andTimGould,ChiefEnergyEconomistandHeadofDivisionforEnergySupplyandInvestmentOutlooks.Principal IEA auth
24、ors of the report include:Thomas Spencer(coal transitions),CarlosFernndezAlvarez(coal),BrentWanner(power),PaulHugues(industry),PeterLevi(industry),Christophe McGlade(supply),Peter Zeniewski(investment)and TanguydeBienassis(investment).MainIEAcontributorsinclude:YasmineArsalane(power),BlandineBarreau
25、(justtransitionpolicies),SimonBennett(hydrogen,energytechnologies),JustinaBodlkov(historicalcoaltransitions),OliviaChen(employment),YunyouChen(power),LeonardoCollina(industry),DanielCrow(airpollution),DavideDAmbrosio(datascience,power),AmritaDasgupta(criticalminerals),TomsdeOliveiraBredariol(critica
26、lminerals,methane),DarlainEdeme(geospatial analysis),Eric Fabozzi(power),Mathilde Fajardy(geospatial analysis),PabloGonzlez(investment and finance),Emma Gordon(investment and finance),AlexandreGouy(industry),LouisHennequin(justtransitionpolicies),PabloHeviaKoch(investment and finance),Bruno Idini(pr
27、oject management),George Kamiya(criticalminerals),HyejiKim(affordability),MartinKueppers(industry),RachaelMoore(carboncapture utilisation and storage),Faidon Papadimoulis(industry),DianaPerez Sanchez(industry),RyszardPospiech(coalsupplymodelling),NasimPour(carboncaptureutilisationandstorage),MaxScho
28、enfisch(power),TiffanyVass(industry),andWonjikYang(datavisualisation).Othercontributorsinclude:CaleighAndrews,MichaelDrtil,LeonieStaasandAnthonyVautrin.EdmundHoskercarriededitorialresponsibility.DebraJustuswasthecopyeditor.Valuable comments and feedback were provided by other senior management andnu
29、merous colleagues within the IEA.In particular,Mary Warlick,Keisuke Sadamori,Alessandro Blasi,Paolo Frankl,Masatoshi Suguira,Sara Moarif,Brian Motherway,RebeccaGaghenandTimurGl.ThanksgototheIEAsCommunicationsandDigitalOfficefortheirhelpinproducingthereport and website materials,particularly Jad Moua
30、wad,Curtis Brainard,Jon Custer,HortenseDeRoffignac,AstridDumond,TanyaDyhin,MerveErdem,GraceGordon,JethroMullen,IsabelleNonainSemelin,JuliePuech,ClaraVallois,GregoryViscusiandThereseWalsh.IEAsOfficeoftheLegalCounsel,OfficeofManagementandAdministrationandEnergyDataCentreprovidedassistancethroughoutthe
31、preparationofthereport.TheworkbenefitedfromthesupportandcooperationprovidedthroughtheIEACleanEnergyTransitionsProgramme.IEA.CC BY 4.0.6 World Energy Outlook|Special ReportHighLevelAdvisoryGroupTheHighLevelAdvisoryGroupprovidedstrategicguidanceforthisreport.Theopinionsandjudgementsexpressedinthisrepo
32、rtaresolelythoseoftheIEA,butwebenefitedgreatlyfromthetimeandexpertiseofthedistinguishedGroupmembers:Chair:MichaelR.Bloomberg UNSpecialEnvoyforClimateAmbitionsandSolutionsandFounderofBloombergLPandBloombergPhilanthropiesVicechair:ArifinTasrifMinisterofEnergyandMineralResources,Indonesia,currentholder
33、ofG20PresidencyVicechair:TeresaRiberaRodrguezDeputyPrimeMinisterandMinisterfortheEcologicalTransitionandtheDemographicChallengeofSpainPatrickGraichenStateSecretaryforEconomicAffairsandClimateAction,GermanyJonathanWilkinsonMinisterofNaturalResources,CanadaKadriSimsonCommissionerforEnergy,EuropeanUnio
34、nDanielMmineleHeadofthePresidentialClimateFinanceTaskTeam,SouthAfricaAhmedSaeedVicePresidentoftheAsianDevelopmentBankMafaldaDuarteCEOoftheClimateInvestmentFundsAdityaMittalCEOofArcelorMittalGaryNagleCEOofGlencoreGurdeepSinghChairmanandManagingDirectorofNTPCLeiZhangCEOofEnvisionGroupPeerreviewersMany
35、seniorgovernmentofficialsandinternationalexpertsprovidedinputandreviewedpreliminarydraftsofthereport.Theircommentsandsuggestionswereofgreatvalue.Theyinclude:RafayilAbbasovAsianDevelopmentBankSalehAbdurrahmanMinistryofEnergyandMineralResources,IndonesiaDougArentNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,Unite
36、dStatesFlorianAusfelderDECHEMAVarunBhargavaArcelorMittalAbhishekBhaskarClimateInvestmentFundsMickBuffierGlencoreIEA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements 7KobenCalhounRockyMountainInstituteXavierChenBeijingEnergyClubRebeccaCollyerEuropeanClimateFoundationRussellConklinUSDepartmentofEnergyDavidElzingaAsianDevel
37、opmentBankAndrewFikkersGlencoreCodyFinkeBrimstoneEnergyNikkiFisherThungelaLaurenFlanaganEnvisionGroupDavidFritschUSEnergyInformationAdministrationMichaelHackethalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandEnergy,GermanyYuyaHasegawaMinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry,JapanLillyHhnFederalMinistryofFinance,GermanyLiJ
38、iangtaoStateGridEnergyResearchInstitute,ChinaShivaPrashanthKasinaNTPCFranciscoLaveronIberdrolaPeterMorrisMineralsCouncilofAustraliaIsabelMurrayDepartmentofNaturalResources,CanadaLauriMyllyvirtaCentreforResearchonEnergyandCleanAirAndiNoviantoCoordinatingMinistryforEconomicAffairs,IndonesiaPakYongdukK
39、oreaEnergyEconomicsInstituteAndrewPurvisWorldSteelMauricioRiverosTheCarbonTrustJustineRocheWorldEconomicForumAnaBelnSnchezInstitutefortheJustTransition,SpainHansWilhemSchifferWorldEnergyCouncilJesseScottDeutschesInstitutfrWirtschaftsforschung(GermanInstituteforEconomicResearch)ChristineShearerGlobal
40、EnergyMonitorChrisStephensTheCarbonTrustRahulTongiaCentreforSocialandEconomicProgessAdairTurnerEnergyTransitionsCommissionTomVanIerlandDGforClimateAction,EuropeanCommissionMichaelWaldronIndependentconsultantAilunYangBloombergPhilanthropiesIEA.CC BY 4.0.8 World Energy Outlook|Special Report Thisdocum
41、entandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.Commentsandquestionsarewelcomeandshouldbeaddressedto:LauraCozziandTimGouldDirectorateofSustainability,TechnologyandOutlo
42、oksInternationalEnergyAgency9,ruedelaFdration75739ParisCedex15FranceEmail:weoiea.orgWeb:www.iea.orgIEA.CC BY 4.0.Table of Contents 9TableofContentsForeword.3Acknowledgements.5Executivesummary.13Coalincleanenergytransitions211.1 Whyfocusoncoalemissions?.221.2 Anewcontextforthenetzeroemissionstransiti
43、on.231.2.1 Coalandenergysecurity.231.2.2 Globalcoaldemandhasbeenstableforadecade.271.2.3 Emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesdominatecoaluse.281.2.4 Coaluseisdeeplyembeddedinafewsectors.301.3 Coaldependentcountriesandregions.321.3.1 Countries.321.3.2 Regions.341.4 Outlookforcoaldemandandemissions.36
44、1.4.1 Coaldemand.371.4.2 CoalwithCCUS.391.4.3 Coalsupplyandtrade.421.4.4 Greenhousegasemissionsandairpollution.45Coalinelectricitygeneration532.1 Introduction.542.2 Overview.552.3 Recentpolicydevelopmentsandcommitments.572.4 Ceaseconstructionofunabatedcoalplants.592.5 RisksoflockedinCO2emissionsfrom
45、existingcoalplants.612.6 Tackleemissionsfromtheexistingcoalfleet.662.6.1 Repurposeforflexibility.662.6.2 Retrofitwithcarboncapture.682.6.3 Retrofittocofirewithammoniaorbiomass.732.6.4 Retirecoalfiredpowerplantsearlyandconvertsites.752.7 Scaleupalternativesourcesofelectricity.772.8 Ensureelectricitys
46、ecurity.822.9 Maintainelectricityaffordability.8312IEA.CC BY 4.0.10 World Energy Outlook|Special Report Coalinindustry873.1 Introduction.883.2 Coaluseinindustrytoday.903.2.1 Regionaltrends.913.2.2 Coalintensiveindustrialapplications.943.3 Keymeasurestoaddresscoalemissionsfromindustry.973.3.1 Reducec
47、oalrelatedemissionsintheironandsteelindustry.1023.3.2 Reducecoalrelatedemissionsinthecementindustry.1093.3.3 Reducecoalrelatedemissionsintheotherindustrialsectors.1143.4 Keyactionsforpolicymakersto2030.1173.4.1 Policiestostimulatepromptreductionsinemissions.1203.4.2 Laythegroundworkforrapiddeploymen
48、tofinnovativetechnologies.121Financingthecoaltransition1254.1 Introduction.1264.2 Coalinvestmentandfinancing:stateofplay.1274.2.1 Trendsincoalinvestment.1274.2.2 Sourcesoffinance.1294.2.3 Challengesandhurdlesfacinginvestorsinthecoaltransition.1334.3 Coaltransitioninvestmentoutlook.1364.3.1 Cleanener
49、gyinvestment.1364.3.2 Unrecoveredcapitalrisksforexistingcoalfiredpowerplants.1414.4 Securetheneededinvestmentoutcomes.1444.4.1 Facilitateearlyretirementofcoalpowerplants.1464.4.2 Provideincentivestorepurposecoalpowerplants.1564.4.3 Stimulateinvestmentincoalpowerplantretrofits.1584.4.4 Unlockinvestme
50、ntfortransitionsincoaldependentindustries.162Implications1675.1 Introduction.1685.2 Threelessonsfromprevioustransitions.1685.2.1 Transitionsincoaldemandhaveoftenbeenrelativelyquick.169345IEA.CC BY 4.0.Table of Contents 11 5.2.2 Economicfactorshavebeenthemaindriversoftransitionsincoalemployment.1715.