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1、Financial Markets: Lecture 1 TranscriptJanuary 14, 2008Professor Robert Shiller: This is Economics 252, Financial Markets, and Im Bob Shiller. Let me begin by introducing the teaching fellows for this course; and so I have them up here. We have five teaching fellows at this time and theyre from all
2、over. I like to put their pictures up so youll know who they are. The teaching fellows are very international and that reflects my intention to make this a course that is also very international because finance is something about the whole world today, not just the United States. So we cover the wor
3、ld very well with our T.A.s.Usman Ali is from Pakistan, Lahore, and he graduated from the LUMS, Lahore University of Management Sciences. Hes a PhD candidate now in Economics and hes doing his doctoral dissertation on stock analysts recommendations and the relation to returns in the stock market. He
4、s also interested in behavioral finance, which is the application of psychology to finance. The second teaching assistant-l see him right there, if you could raise your hand-Santosh Anagol, who is a representative of the United States, although he seems to have connections to India as well. He actua
5、lly has a publication already in the American Economic Review on the Return to Capital with Ghana. He did this jointly with the Chairman of the Economics Department here, Chris Udry and he has spent time in India looking at the village economies. You were going to be giving away cows, did you do tha
6、t?Student: No, Im still working on cows but were not giving them away.Professor Robert Shiller: Okay, thats the last time youll hear about cows in this course. The idea was to give cows away to village farmers and to observe the outcome. Its a big change in some of these very poor villages to get a
7、cow.Christian Awuku-Budu is from Ghana, Accra, but he, again, went to college in the United States at Morehouse College. He is also a PhD candidate in Economics at Yale and hes been doing research on financial markets in developing countries.Yaxin Duan is from China. She got her undergraduate degree
8、 from Nanjing University. No? You are from Nanjing, did I get a detail wrong? Where did you go to college? Okay, well Im sorry about that. She is also a PhD candidate in Economics and is doing research on the behavior of options prices in a phenomenon called the options smile, as shes smiling at me
9、right now. She is also interested in behavioral finance, which is great to me because thats one of my interests. She is shown here standing precariously on a cliff. It makes me nervous to look at it overlooking Machu Picchu in Peru. She also loves astronomy, which is incidentally an interest of mine
10、 too, but you wont hear about it again in this course.Finally, Xiaolan Zhou is our fifth teaching assistant and shes also from China, Hubei Province. She graduated from Wuhan University and is a PhD candidate in Economics at Yale. She is doing research on bank mergers.Let me say, Ive been teaching t
11、his course now for over twenty years and Im very proud of all of my alumni. Many of them are in the field of finance. In fact, I like sometimes when I give-l give a lot of public talks. When I give a talk on Wall Street or even somewhere else in the world I sometimes ask my audience, Did you take my
12、 course? Its not infrequent that Ill get one or even two people raising their hand that they took Economics 252 from me. But Im also proud of my alumni in this course who are not in the world of finance. I think this course goes beyond-lts not just for people who are planning careers in finance beca
13、use finance is a very important technology and its very important to know finance to understand what happens in the real world. Just about any human endeavor involves finance. Now, you might say, I could be a poet and what does that have to do with finance? Well, it probably ends up having something
14、 to do with finance because as a poet you probably want to publish your poetry and youre going to be talking to publishers. Before you know it, theyre going to be talking about their financial situation and how you fit into it.I believe its fundamental and very important. I think you will find this
15、course as not a vocational course-not primarily a vocational course-but an intellectual course about how things really work. I see finance as the underpinning of so much that happens. Its a powerful force that goes behind the scene and I hope we can draw that out in this course. There is another cou
16、rse-we have two basic courses in finance for undergraduates at Yale. The other one is Economics 251, Financial Theory; this is Financial Markets, that one is Financial Theory. Last year it was taught by Rafael Romeu, because John, Geanakoplos who usually teaches the course, was on leave and so we ha
17、d to find someone else. I assume that next fall John Geanakoplos will be teaching 251 again.So what happened? Why do we have these two courses? Well it was something like eight years ago that we reached the present situation with two finance courses. John Geanakoplos and I had a meeting and we tried
18、 to divide up the subject matter of finance into two courses. We thought Financial Theory and Financial Markets would be the two. But the problem was that both John and I are interested in both theory and applications. John Geanakoplos is actually Chief Economist for a large investment called Elling
19、ton Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, which youll see a lot in the news. It has been very successful. He is very much interested in the real world and I am interested in financial theory, so we find it-we decided, after talking about it, that we really cant divide up the subject matter of finance i
20、nto separate courses on theory and practice. If you tried to do one alone it would not work, so we decided to divide it up imperfectly and there may be some repetition between our two courses. Both of them are self-contained courses, so you could take either 251 or 252, or you could take both. I thi
21、nk maybe the best option is to take both if youre really interested in the subject matter. It is true though that his course is more tuned into theoretical detail than mine. John is a mathematical economist and we both love mathematics, but maybe John is going to do more of it than I am.This course
22、actually will not use a heavy amount of mathematics. I try to keep it so that people who are not comfortable with a lot of math can take this course and I wanted to emphasize that this is-lve said that its-l think this course is vocational preparation in a sense. I pride myself on the fact that peop
23、le who have taken this course find it useful in their subsequent lives, but on the other hand, I think that its really interesting. At least I find it really interesting and so I hope that you will too. Now I dont know, I may be different than other people, but I think organic chemistry is really in
24、teresting. How many of you have that feeling? Can I get a show of hands, who is interested in organic chemistry? Im not getting a lot of hands raised. Unfortunately, Ive never taken a course in it, but Ive started reading it lately out of just my broad intellectual interest. That is a course that ha
25、s a bad reputation, doesnt it? Because people say Ive got to take that if I want to be pre-med. But, you know, to me theres a lot of detail in organic chemistry. To me, when you read the detail youre getting into something deep and important about the way everything works and so I start to find it i
26、nteresting.So I dont know how people feel about taking-maybe Im turning you off by saying this-Theres going to be a lot of detail in this course. Maybe I made a big mistake by likening it to an organic chemistry course-1 dont mean to turn you off. The idea in this course is that by being a financial
27、 markets course, you have to know how the world works. Were going to be thinking about that in connection with Financial Theory, but we have to get into the details; so we are going to be learning about facts.Let me start by talking about the textbook. So the principal textbook is Frank Fabozzi, the
28、 other authors are Modigliani, Jones and Ferri, Foundations of Financial Markets and Institutions. This textbook is very detailed and it may be-lve had some reaction by students-more than you wanted to know.I actually had a great experience reading it. Actually, it was an earlier edition, when I fir
29、st assigned this book in the year 2000, I took it with me on vacation. I was going to the Bahamas with my family and with Jeremy Siegels family-well come back to Jeremy Siegel in a minute. I sat down by the pool with this book. Other people were reading novels and I dont know what else, but I was re
30、ading Fabozzi. I had such a great time with it, so Im telling you my experience. Maybe it was because it was filling in gaps in my knowledge-things Ive always wanted to know and was always curious about. Thats partly what you have to develop when you get interested in a field: some sense of curiosit
31、y about all the details. So I read the whole book, 650 pages, maybe I kind of read fast because I knew a lot of it. It might take you a little longer to get through it, but I wanted you to have the same experience.Ive been assigning this book, now its in another edition and-Fabozzi is working on a f
32、ourth or next edition, I forget what number. Ive been assigning-lve gotten some complaints from students that this book is tough going because theres so much information in it. I used to tell people, Im assigning the whole book and you have to know everything in the book. Thats a little ambitious. I
33、 finally backed down because I met a man on Wall Street, a very prominent Wall Street person, and he said, You know, my son started to take your course. I said, What do you mean started the course? He said, Well, he dropped out when he saw this book and the requirements. I didnt like that. I dont wa
34、nt students to drop out. So what I decided is that you need to know the whole book in the sense that you need to know all of the key terms and key points. Now if you look at the structure of this book, it has sections that say Key Points and Key Terms. Anything thats mentioned there is fair game for
35、 me in an exam and thats the way Ive done it. There are key points and key terms. Also, anything in my lecture is of course fair game for the exam. Let me also add that I have a reading list that has clickable things on it and also things that are on reserve in the library. Anything thats clickable
36、is required reading. I dont expect you go to the library, however, because I think that were moving into an age where you tend to want to be online, right? So the library books are all optional background.Fabozzi, a faculty member here at Yale, has offered to give me-we have at least one chapter fro
37、m the new edition that hasnt come out yet. Im going to put that on reserve in the library; but again, I think that the edition that you have is reasonably up to date and so thats all that Im expecting you to read. The other author, Franco Modigliani-in the book, the second author-was my teacher at M
38、IT. He died in 2003. He is also a Nobel Prize winner and I think has a remarkable intellect. So this book, Fabozzi, et al.-Fabozzi, Modigliani, Jones and Ferri-is a very solid book about financial markets.The second book that Im assigning is Jeremy Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run. This is an old fri
39、end of mine. I met him in graduate school. Funny story, I met him because at MIT they signed us all up for chest x-rays alphabetically-thats the wayMIT does things, an orderly way. Shiller and Siegel are next to each other in the alphabet, so I was standing in line with him for an x-ray and was talk
40、ing with him and Ive known him ever since. A funny coincidence is that since our names are close in the alphabet-you often find our books right together in bookstores because Shiller and Siegel-if theyre shelving alphabetically-would end up together. He wrote a book called Stocks for the Long Run, s
41、tarting in 1993. It just came out with the fourth edition and that book was a best seller. I think it sold over a half million copies. Im not sure where it is now but it has done very well. Its been a perennial classic. It emphasizes the long run performance of the stock market, but its really a gen
42、eral treatise of financial markets. I get a very good reaction from students about this book. This one is very readable. Its not as intense as Fabozzi, et al. Jeremy Siegel holds the unique distinction-Business Week did a poll asking MBAs about their favorite professor. This was about ten years ago.
43、 They ranked business school professors according to their popularity. He came out number one in the United States as business school professor. I think youll like this book.The next book is my own and called Irrational Exuberance.This is the last book-Thats a phrase that was coined by Allen Greensp
44、an in 1996 and it refers to the stock market boom of the 2000s-of the 1990s and the boom and the bust-well I think its related to the bust that came out later, after 2000. I wrote this book in 2000 right at the peak of-fortunately right at the peak of the stock market. But what Im assigning to you i
45、s the second edition, which came out in 2005, pretty much at the peak of the housing market. Were going to talk about both the housing market and the stock market in these different books.These books are all on sale at Labyrinth Books, which is an independent bookstore here in New Haven. I put it th
46、ere because, well, I think the major chain bookstores fulfill an important function but I also like to support independent bookstores. I dont know if you know the story, but Labyrinth Books is independent, its not a chain, and independent bookstores are trying-struggling-to survive. This is finance.
47、 In the book business, theres something difficult about maintaining an independent operation. Labyrinth was at Columbia University and Yale. For some reason they shut down their Columbia bookstore, but theyve opened up now inPrinceton. There was this famous bookstore in Princeton onNassau Street cal
48、led Micawbers, which is a wonderful bookstore. Ive been in there a number of times. But they just went out of business. Labyrinth has moved in to take their place. Anyway, thats where all the books are and they are available now.Were going to have these lectures on Mondays and Wednesdays. Were going
49、 to have T.A. sections in the second part of the week. Were going to ask you to look at your schedule sometime before our next lecture and think about when you can come to a teaching assistant section. They will be Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday and we have six problem sets. The six problem sets are due generally on Mondays and well go over the problem sets in the teaching sections, several days after you turn them in. This is