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1、The Global Risks Report 201712th EditionInsight ReportWorld Economic Forum91-93 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.:+41(0)22 869 1212Fax:+41(0)22 786 2744contactweforum.orgwww.weforum.orgThe Global Risks Report 2017,12th Edition is published by the World Economic Forum within the
2、 framework of The Global Competitiveness and Risks Team.The information in this report,or on which this report is based,has been obtained from sources that the authors believe to be reliable and accurate.However,it has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty,express or impl
3、ied,is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from third parties.In addition,the statements in this report may provide current expectations of future events based on certain assumptions and include any statement that does not directly relate to a historical fact or a cur
4、rent fact.These statements involve known and unknown risks,uncertainties and other factors which are not exhaustive.The companies contributing to this report operate in a continually changing environment and new risks emerge continually.Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these stat
5、ements.The companies contributing to this report undertake no obligation to publicly revise or update any statements,whether as a result of new information,future events or otherwise and they shall in no event be liable for any loss or damage arising in connection with the use of the information in
6、this report.World Economic ForumGenevaWorld Economic Forum 2017 All rights reserved.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted,in any form or by any means,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,or otherwise without the prior permission o
7、f the World Economic Forum.ISBN:978-1-944835-07-1 REF:050117 The report and an interactive data platform are available at http:/wef.ch/risks2017Figure 1:The Risks-Trends Interconnections MapSource:World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2016Note:Survey respondents were asked to select th
8、e three trends that are the most important in shaping global development in the next 10 years.For each of the three trends identified,respondents were asked to select the risks that are most strongly driven by those trends.The global risks with the most connections to trends are spelled out in the f
9、igure.See Appendix B for more details.To ensure legibility,the names of the global risks are abbreviated;see Appendix A for the full name and descriptionFigure 2:The Evolving Risks Landscape,2007-2017Breakdown of critical information infrastructureBreakdown of critical information infrastructure2008
10、200920102011201220131stAsset price collapseAsset price collapseAsset price collapseFiscal crisesMajor systemicfinancial failure Major systemicfinancial failure 2ndRetrenchment from globalization(developed)Retrenchment from globalization(developed)Retrenchment from globalization(developed)Climate cha
11、nge Water supply crisesWater supply crises3rdSlowing Chinese economy(6%)Oil and gas price spikeOil price spikesGeopolitical conflict Food shortage crises4thOil and gas price spikeChronic diseaseChronic diseaseAsset price collapseimbalances5thPandemicsFiscal crisesFiscal crisesExtreme energy price vo
12、latilityExtreme volatilityin energy and agriculture pricesDiffusion ofweapons of mass destructionEconomicEnvironmentalGeopoliticalSocietalTechnologicalFailure of climate-change mitigation and adaptationBreakdown of critical information infrastructureBreakdown of critical information infrastructure20
13、08200920102011201220131stAsset price collapseAsset price collapseAsset price collapseStorms and cyclonesSevere income disparitySevere income disparity2ndMiddle East instabilitySlowing Chinese economy(6%)Slowing Chinese economy(6%)FloodingChronic fiscalimbalancesChronic fiscalimbalancesChronic fiscal
14、imbalances3rdFailed and failing statesChronic diseaseChronic diseaseCorruptionRising greenhouse gas emissionsRising greenhouse gas emissions4thOil and gas price spikeGlobal governance gapsFiscal crisesBiodiversity lossCyber attacksWater supplycrises5thChronic disease,developed worldRetrenchment from
15、 globalization(emerging)Global governance gapsClimate change Water supply crisesMismanagement of population ageing2014Fiscal crisesClimate change andunderemploymentCritical information infrastructure2014Income disparityeventsUnemployment and underemploymentClimate changeCyber attacks Extreme weather
16、Water crises Unemployment breakdown2015Water crisesRapid and massivespread of infectious diseasesFailure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation2015Interstate conflictwith regionalconsequencesFailure of nationalgovernanceState collapse orcrisisHigh structuralunemployment orunderemploymentExtreme
17、 weathereventsWeapons of massdestructionInterstate conflictwith regionalconsequences2016Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptationWeapons of mass destructionSevere energy price shock2016Large-scale involuntary migrationFailure of climate-change mitigation and adaptationInterstate conflict w
18、ith regional consequencesMajor natural catastrophes Extreme weathereventsWater crisesLarge-scale involuntary migration2017Weapons of mass destructionExtreme weather eventsFailure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation2017Extreme weather eventsMajor natural disastersLarge-scale terrorist attacks
19、Massive incident of data fraud/theftLarge-scale involuntary migrationWater crisesMajor natural disasters2007Breakdown ofcritical informationinfrastructureChronic diseasein developed countriesOil price shockChina economic hard landingAsset pricecollapseTop 5 Global Risks in Terms of LikelihoodTop 5 G
20、lobal Risks in Terms of Impact2007Asset price collapseRetrenchment from globalizationInterstate andcivil warsPandemicsOil price shockSource:World Economic Forum 20017-2017,Global Risks ReportsNote:Global risks may not be strictly comparable across years,as definitions and the set of global risks hav
21、e evolved with new issues emerging on the 10-year horizon.For example,cyberattacks,income disparity and unemployment entered the set of global risks in 2012.Some global risks were reclassified:water crises and rising income disparity were re-categorized first as societal risks and then as a trend in
22、 the 2015 and 2016 Global Risks Reports,respectively.The 2006 edition of the Global Risks Report did not have a risks landscapeFigure 3:The Global Risks Landscape 2017Source:World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2016Note:Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the ind
23、ividual global risk on a scale of 1 to 7,1 representing a risk that is not likely to happen and 7 a risk that is very likely to occur.They also assess the impact on each global risk on a scale of 1 to 5(1:minimal impact,2:minor impact,3:moderate impact,4:severe impact and 5:catastrophic impact).See
24、Appendix B for more details.To ensure legibility,the names of the global risks are abbreviated;see Appendix A for the full name and descriptionFigure 4:The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2017Source:World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2016Note:Survey respondents were asked to ident
25、ify between three and six pairs of global risks they believe to be most interconnected.See Appendix B for more details.To ensure legibility,the names of the global risks are abbreviated;see Appendix A for the full name and descriptionThe Global Risks Report 201712th EditionStrategic Partners Marsh&M
26、cLennan Companies Zurich Insurance Group Academic Advisers National University of Singapore Oxford Martin School,University of Oxford Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center,University of Pennsylvania Contents4 Preface By Klaus Schwab5 Foreword6 Executive Summary8 Introduction10 Part 1
27、:Global Risks 2017 Economy:Growth and Reform Society:Rebuilding Communities Technology:Managing Disruption Geopolitics:Strengthening Cooperation Environment:Accelerating Action22 Part 2:Social and Political Challenges23 2.1 Western Democracy in Crisis?29 2.2 Fraying Rule of Law and Declining Civic F
28、reedoms:Citizens and Civic Space at Risk35 2.3 The Future of Social Protection Systems42 Part 3:Emerging Technologies43 3.1 Understanding the Technology Risk Landscape48 3.2 Assessing the Risk of Artificial Intelligence53 3.3 Physical Infrastructure Networks and the Fourth Industrial Revolution58 Co
29、nclusion 60 Appendices Appendix A:Description of Global Risks,Trends and Emerging Technologies 2017 Appendix B:Global Risks Perception Survey 2016 and Methodology68 Acknowledgements The Global Risks Report 20174The year 2016 has seen profound shifts in the way we view global risks.Societal polarizat
30、ion,income inequality and the inward orientation of countries are spilling over into real-world politics.Through recent electoral results in G7 countries,these trends are set to have a lasting impact on the way economies act and relate to each other.They are also likely to affect global risks and th
31、e interconnections between them.Against the background of these developments,this years Global Risks Report explores five gravity centres that will shape global risks.First,continued slow growth combined with high debt and demographic change creates an environment that favours financial crises and g
32、rowing inequality.At the same time,pervasive corruption,short-termism and unequal distribution of the benefits of growth suggest that the capitalist economic model may not be delivering for people.The transition towards a more multipolar world order is putting global cooperation under strain.At the
33、same time,the Fourth Industrial Revolution is fundamentally transforming societies,economies,and ways of doing business.Last but not least,as people seek to reassert identities that have been blurred by globalization,decision-making is increasingly influenced by emotions.In addition to these gravity
34、 centres,this years Global Risks Report presents deep-dive discussions of risks posed by ongoing political and societal transformations,including challenges to democracy,closing space for civil society,and outmoded social protection systems.It also discusses risks related to emerging technologies of
35、 the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the associated governance challenges.As in previous years,the analysis contained in this Report builds on the annual Global Risks Perception Survey,completed by almost 750 members of the World Economic Forums global multistakeholder community.The year 2017 will
36、present a pivotal moment for the global community.The threat of a less cooperative,more inward-looking world also creates the opportunity to address global risks and the trends that drive them.This will require responsive and responsible leadership with a deeper commitment to inclusive development a
37、nd equitable growth,both nationally and globally.It will also require collaboration across multiple interconnected systems,countries,areas of expertise,and stakeholder groups with the aim of having a greater societal impact.We hope that The Global Risks Report 2017 and the subsequent deliberations a
38、t the World Economic Forums Annual Meeting 2017 will contribute to a debate about pragmatic solutions.PrefaceKlaus SchwabFounder and Executive Chairman World Economic ForumForewordAs one of the Forums flagship reports,The Global Risks Report has been a collaborative effort since its first edition in
39、 2006.It draws on the unique expertise available within the Forum itself and its different communities and knowledge networks.It also builds firmly on the Forums ongoing research,projects,debates and initiatives.As well as reflecting the views of leaders from our various communities through the Glob
40、al Risks Perception Survey,the insights presented here are the result of numerous discussions,consultations,and workshops.With this in mind,we would like to thank our Strategic Report Partners,Marsh&McLennan Companies and Zurich Insurance Group,represented on the Steering Board by John Drzik,Preside
41、nt,Global Risk and Specialties,Marsh;and Cecilia Reyes,Group Chief Risk Officer,Zurich Insurance Group.Furthermore,Professor Schwab is grateful to our Academic Advisers the National University of Singapore,Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford,and the Wharton Risk Management and Decision
42、Processes Center at the University of Pennsylvania.The Report has greatly benefited from the dedication and valuable guidance of the members of the Global Risks 2017 Advisory Board.Members are Rolf Alter,Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD);Sharan Burrow,International Trade U
43、nion Confederation(ITUC);Winnie Byanyima,Oxfam International;Marie-Valentine Florin,International Risk Governance Council(IRGC);Al Gore,Generation Investment Management;Donald Kaberuka,Harvard University;Steven Kou,National University of Singapore;Julian Laird,Oxford Martin School;Pascal Lamy,Jacque
44、s Delors Institute;Ursula von der Leyen,Federal Minister of Defence of Germany;Maleeha Lodhi,Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Pakistan to the United Nations;Gary Marchant,Arizona State University;Erwann Michel-Kerjan,Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center,University of Penns
45、ylvania;Nicolas Mueller,Federal Chancellery of Switzerland;Moiss Nam,Carnegie Endowment for International Peace;Kirstjen Nielsen,George Washington University Center for Cyber and Homeland Security;Naomi Oreskes,Harvard University;Jonathan Ostry,International Monetary Fund;Nouriel Roubini,New York Un
46、iversity;John Scott,Zurich Insurance Group;Richard Smith-Bingham,Marsh&McLennan Companies;Michelle Tuveson,Centre for Risk Studies,University of Cambridge Judge Business School;Ngaire Woods,University of Oxford;and Sandra Wu Wen-Hsiu,Japan Asia Group Limited.We are also grateful to Aengus Collins,Pr
47、actice Lead,Global Risks for his leadership of this project and the Global Risks 2017 core project team members Ciara Browne,Nicholas Davis,Attilio Di Battista,Daniel Gomez Gaviria,Thierry Geiger,Galle Marti,Thomas Philbeck,Katharine Shaw,and Stphanie Verin for their contributions to this Report.Las
48、t but not least,we would like to thank the Global Risks Perception Survey 2016 review group,respondents who completed the Global Risks Perception Survey and the participants in the Global Risks workshops.5The Global Risks Report 2017Margareta Drzeniek HanouzHead of Competitiveness and Risks and Memb
49、er of the Executive CommitteeRichard SamansHead of the Centre for the Global Agenda,Member of the Managing BoardGlobal Risks 20156Executive Summaryfive.Hence the next challenge:facing up to the importance of identity and community.Rapid changes of attitudes in areas such as gender,sexual orientation
50、,race,multiculturalism,environmental protection and international cooperation have led many voters particularly the older and less-educated ones to feel left behind in their own countries.The resulting cultural schisms are testing social and political cohesion and may amplify many other risks if not