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1、Me如Morga Sta leyYIELDbf6Stanley |RESEARCH。隹0 P5副3 9耳9期Cross-asset expected risk/reward for 2023As of Nov 10, 2022Q4 2023 ForecastBearBaseBullEquitiesS&P5003,9563,5003,9004,200MSCI Europe1,7401.4851,7902,060Topix1,9371,6702,1502.450MSCI EM8907301,0001.130FXUSD/JPY141127140147EUR/USD1.021.041.081.14GB
2、P/USD1.171.091.16121AUD/USD0.660.670.700.75USD/INR81.872477.080.1USD/ZAR17415.516.317.0USD/BRL5.384.805.105.70Rates (% percent)UST 10yr3.814.503.502.10DBR 10yr2.011.801.50120UKTlOyr3.293.403.102.80JGB lOyr0.250.750.450.10Credit (bps)US IG147210155125US HY468700575400EURIG204|300190150EURHY554F 85065
3、0450 IEM Sovs511650460350US Agency MBS56855035CommoditiesBrent9465110135Copper3.83.03.34.1Gold1,7451,485Tj5561,980Q4 2023 Return ForecastAverage VolatilityBase Case Return/RiskBearBaseBullTotal Returns-10%0.3%8%21%0.01-11%6.3%22%18%0.34-11%13.6%29%20%0.68-14%15.9%30%21%0.76Total Returns-9%-4.4%-6% 1
4、0%-0.45 .-1%3.3%9%9%0.388%-1.8%3%11%-0.160%4.5%12%12%0.395%8.8%15%7%1.30 .4%8.9%14%16%0.561%12.5%19%18%0.69Total Returns-1%6.3%18%8%0.814%7.0%9%8%0.862%5.2%7%10%-4%-1.0%2%4%-0.26 1Excess Returns-3%0.9%3%4%0.21-6%-0.5%7%8%-0.06-2%2.7%5%3%0.85-5%1.9%9% 7%0.28-5%8.9%17%8%1.09-1%0.9%2%2%0.38Total Return
5、s-26%26.0%55%43%0.61-21%-12.4%9%26%-0.47-17%-8.2%10%17%-0.48Source Yield Book,凶迎 Bloomberg Morgan Stan9 xht average of 1y impl td vol (where available) and 10y realized volar*2023 OutlooksThe cemrabzed colLectcr for all 2023 Cutlook，Gleba及 Global Asset Allocation -+Equities.CreditGovernment BondsCom
6、moditiesCash.Within these asset classesz our relative allocations:Equities-+US.Europe.JapanEM.Credit-+Inv. GradeHigh YieldLoansEM.匚匚塞SecuritizedGovernment Bonds-+USEuropej ，uk二mj_厂Japan.EM Local: ZOZQBSfx-+USDEUR:GBP ； JPY.1em TTlB-Stanley | researchEquitiesCreditGovernment BondsCommoditiesCashQI001
7、 h女 ，QHbb 峥9曲d日-m*B 口 e0933.Q300BB529Q9Stanley |RESEARCHJ网-8Jw SJ -0Jw -2Jr 2mJr -7-a抽睥fag61睁bs0 _|L.o/ww gzce/neqxg1zg-fd -2bl -2a -2P -au -aAvg Fwd N12MAyaExp-ion2% 一.1%KS*H50QUST10Y US HYDWtionnuggfkhhg-tgpvqwveqoguOof qypx/pgwwn#iu/wwj kmg of qy|TNAtpi kog qhWqwf eetiti(BMtrcai Stanley |RESEARCH
8、sPb . AbL Fb Hk ，Kh o，-tgeguukqpwwoJcnfVeqpfkvkqpuww j cuww ocwgligf* nguu *vj kpmww 3 ; =7+CTogpfqfewwlifcLFriterpJwwnguuwwJgnrhfl-0-9 5-6ox/w r-fcgugp/gfk/ugnhwwhq-fc*神 tfirtrh ijrri M BIM 1 TJbYb76 中w6 中w1d -0 A -0 d - d -3 d -6 d -9 d -2Stpwiouwwcww1:guciqB01lookrm ik byaL FA1的皿乃I PONT CARE IF 7
9、MT X后即 1LP TAKES 23 mo卬叫 OR 2g YaRI1/ BE HEREyou HAVE 2Q /ARS LfFF ONA 2.75% 向o灯GA6EDnYoV ?No CommENtQw Jqwug j qrifu dsttzg wwwpf gtygk j z，A / -0 -0 -0 -0 -9 -0 -Q g) -QGYg，g*ge/哪外鼬/柳Stanley |RESEARCH9,tiw*5Wb第 印ouw* -tgeguukqp kuB7 oqt:gw* ug-b-笛-W由3goeI七oegbkRwqo盛fg UNO”-a-el/Riii Hih .工工电 Sg，电 Oxg j gnf ukpeg nouxzA ouww Qw/nc|C|mOww Cww ygomgf WUFWW j gn ru _ dw/*w -fcc|y/j -tkumuww opf dgwgl:b g -ab k -gfeWflM；d o/wwoc/vg-tzOwwU/qemuwwcpfdqpf uwwj c-fcpciwvux/cp-fkp i gc_tO0A -0 A -9 d -0 d -6 d - A -5 d -0-h -0-卯a-bd-助ki-ttih -W