欧洲如何拯救利比亚外交.docx

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1、EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS ecfr.eub y a o u n t rp o I i t e t i n gope j a r t n ee a n s i n t e s e c uI i s a t c c o u o I dPOLICYSPOILER ALERT: H DIPLOMACY I N L I BTarek M e g e r i s iJanuary 2 0 2 1SUMMARYKey European states need t o make Ltheir competing approaches t o t h e cEu

2、ropeans must reinvigorate t h e U N structure rather than entrench comeThey should focuso n protecting E uconflict, creatinga reliable localT o make t h e U N process work, Europ blocking and isolating domestic and unifying objectives, and supportingEuropeans should also provide stab strengthen Liby

3、a s governance and a new government can successfullyand the E U . Given the many similarities b e tt o inspire confidencet o inspire confidencethat Libya will e s c a pfive years, t h e conflict i n t h e country has t h e door for some o f Europe s biggest s t r a t influence o n i t s doorstep. Li

4、bya s crisis di conflict i n t h e already-insecure Sahel r e g i Mediterranean.A s Europeansseek t o strengthentheirorder,the mannerwhich theyoperate i nThere i sa very realpossibilitythatsecurity. Russiaautonomy i nLibyathan i t needs h i mthan i t needs h i mhas allowed i t t o 1 a y cAfricaAfric

5、aCommand hasalreadyembeddeddenial a iRussianr-defencepresencesystemsi nthisa tJurastrategico r S i r t eairbase. Moreover,i f Russia establishes aMediterraneanFor i t s part, Turkey has shown just how p o v Europe. And the country i s already d e p 1 o y i r i t s support for the E U s Operation I r

6、 i n i a Libya, and that Ankara regards a s unfairly Libyan partners t o use t h e migration issue European states most concerned about the tDespite having these significant interests country i n recent years. Key European c a p i t o f short-term goals, leaving them unable t o them have reinforced

7、t h e trends that have 1There i s n o more glaring example o f this t h i t s defence concerns t o guide i t s approach regional partner, t h e U A E , largely a t t h e e a French counter-terrorism mission i n Libyaspecialspecialforces teamsand t h e U S s u p p oe d a coalitiono f westernIslamic S

8、tate group o u t o f S i r t e .When theL A A F Major Mahmoud ao n chargesi t s own invest!i t s own invest!push for the L A A F t o pursue efforts.I n 2 0 18, whent h e new special representativinstitute a b i g - t e n t approachto Libyan d i conference a tL a Celle-Saint-Cloud that redH a f t a r

9、 . This track was progressivelys k e w e (process byattackingTripoli,France remaindiplomat! ccoverforthe E m i r a t i proxy sd eweapons i nL A A Fweapons caches.Ther e s u 1Libya, anda warthat facilitatedt h ee n t r erand Russia.Italy s policy i n Libya has had a similar d strong ties with Tripoli

10、 t o reduce m i g r a t i o commercial actors, even when doing s o d a m aM i n n i t i doctrinenamed after Italy s t h eLibyan militias t o detain would-be migrants doctrine fomented instability and violence hopes o f controlling i t s security sector. I n focused o n rebuilding a strong relationsh

11、ip i n Tripoli s suburbs, before extending t o b Libyans from potential E U sanctions t o pres for eastern Libyans), collectively blunting t h e U N process. I t was a n event that e n c a p s tactical interests have left Europeans i n e f fUltimately,contributedEuropes competingpolicies o nacutecri

12、sisi n i t s n e i g h band weaknessI f Europeans want t o end the damaging t r e n worsteffects,theyneed t o a c t more s t r a t enamely, ending t h e conflict, protecting E whom i t can work o n migratory, security, eThese goals will only b e achievable i f Fran work i n concert, especially given

13、 that the policy tools. Designing and maintaining a ( require support from t h e top o f European g ( can implement a shared policy while also a ( demonstrated i t s value i n 2 0 2 0 b y helping j collapse o f H a f t a r s offensive o n Tripoli, relationships t o broker deals o r obtain consucheff

14、orts intoa common push i f i t i s t oTowards this end, Europeans should now t a k process b y addressing i t s core deficiencies Despite t h e weakness o f the current U N pro protected, especially given that i t s full c o would further marginalise Europe. Moreover against t h e political elite, t

15、 h e decline i n t h e best opportunity i n five years for progThis dynamic may now b e strengthened b y t h a U N - 1 e d multilateral process. Biden s elec t h e Libya Stabilisation A c t which created suggest that t h e U S could now provide v a 1 uthisEuropeans needt o finally a gpolicy.Franc e

16、and Italy shouldabandon t h einclusive a nd comprehensive U Ne d a p p r o a ccentre o n s hepherding Libya towardspermshould d oshould d os o b y corrallingcompetingfrom outside spoilers. I f Europeans are t o bargain with one another o n certain issues broker i n this. I t should seek t o convince

17、 diplomatic accommodation with Ankara i st h part o f this, Berlin should raise the p r o s p e play a constructive role. For France t o bee become more French i n other aspects o f i t that a European alliance will not undermineunity, E U actors sI f they can achieve such areas.1 . CounteringIntern

18、ationaEuropeans need t o undertake significant d i f settlement such a s Turkey and Egypt a n c onslaught from a maximalist U A E and a high states that sponsor actors i n Libya, n o p o 1 various foreign powers are hardening the m actors even a s t h e political process unfoldA n effective European

19、 strategy will have t o acceptable multilateral agreementt o bindFrench and Italian impulse for more a s s e r t i give Turkey and Egypt a stake i n t h e deal a for example, formalising their roles i n rec also involve t h e threat o f E U sanctions i f i could also use broader relationships with t

20、 and energy.Alongside this, Europe will need t o i m p 1 e m from spoiling t h e process. Given that t h e U should use E U and U N af o re ug m d iwoa rL oc hr ai pa si n tchiandandpress-gangin gi n ot fo Smu i dl a id a is y dneepnloymentsU N Security Council arms embargo. The E U U A u in sd K u

21、g s i a n deployments i n Libya that p o states should condition any future arms s a 1A collective push b y France, Germany, and block t h e sale o f F - 3 5 s and other military Abu Dhabi s interference i n Libya too p o 1 i t support for H a f t a r , along with i t s f i n a n c i n capacity t o

22、a c t a s a spoiler. Meanwhile, a and o n building a unified Libyan military, and addressing the grievances o f Libyan g r cThisThiscombined approachwouldallow Europebilateralrelationships with keydevelopmentst h e situationi n Libya affect core Europeanthere would damage bilateralA s part o f this

23、international approach, E u r ceasefire agreement and the L P D F road map. that Europeans need t o help address, a UNS spoilers, including b y providing a legal b a mercenaries. Here i t will b e critical t o m oworking a 1like-mindedstates, suchindividuals o rindividuals o rcompaniesthat disrupt t

24、 h e pR e i n f o r c in g national u nThe key vulnerability o f the U N process i s politicians, retreating t o parallel i n s t i t u t t h e lack o f effective governance i s easier parties t o t h e conflict, divided institution influence. This approach t o governance a 1 s c dysfunction. Overal

25、l, Libya s d e facto parteffortseffortsreinforce astabilisingpoliticalproblem willEuropeEuropeshouldprioritise efforts t o end t h i $enhance t h e L P D F road map t o more c o m p r e h o f parallel institutions and working t o pre governing each half o f the country. Simply t h e who instead o f

26、t h e how. This requires a system o f t h e new authority, cleanly d i v i d iwork togetherwork togetherinstead o f creatingcompapproachthat doest o o littleincentiviseThe reality o f Libyan politics i s that elite that i s a s lucrative for them a s i t i s d e b i 1 unifying executive, Europe will

27、 increase i t attempts t o spoil the process. Europe s h o u 1 revenue, tying access t o state funds t o par road map.A s a subsequent step, t h e E U should only r c legitimate national authorities resulting f i retain a parallel army, bank, and o i 1 c o r p o resolutions could act a s a foundatio

28、n for sCompany i f i t continued t o unilaterally t r a help Europe incentivise t h e unification o f from key stakeholders o n the ground. B u t E political legitimisation, stabilisation s u p p successful adoption o f a national project.IncreasedengagementA key component o f this unifying approach

29、 institutions which are now being cannibal and the U A E o n t h e other into a single b o political vehicle). Unifying t h e security s e H a f t a r s spoiling capacity, and diluting R uAnd i twillengagementrequire t h efrom actorsestablishment o f asuch a st h e E u r o p e aT o help the J M C bu

30、ild u p a national s e c u r i foreign forces, Europeans should b e willing creation o f a new body given that O p e r a t i o r western Libyans; NATO i s viewed with s u s p Border Assistance Mission t o Libya i s i n c a j Italian-French-German vehiclewith Italyrelationships with eastern military

31、groups, neutral country t o gain t h e backing o f v a r iA European technical mission could help d e institution, integrate o r demobilise militia give theJ M Cs workwiderresonanceo n L ibsuccess.Themissioncouldalso helpLibyaEgyptian involvement i n Libya, offering th, institution which could prese

32、rve t h e i n f 1 i constructive engagement. This process w o u 1 they will need t o work closely with t o mana future.Europeans should simultaneously widen and t h e ground. This will help increase popular Stabilisation Facility for Libya, Europeans infrastructure. European missions could d e elect

33、ric and o i 1 companies t o enhance Libyz o f widespread popular discontent.A s part o f their support for t h e new unity o f t h eroadmap. For instance, theyc o u1 dpgreater r e s p o n s i b i 1 i t yf o r t h e provision o f ensurethatt h eLibyan publicshared i n thetrack. Additionally, European

34、s could i n c r e a expanding civic education campaigns and w o B y working alongside Libyan civil society (government s activities. This could involve mechanisms. Such support would help b u t t r e map:a transitional justice and reconciliatisanctions and travel bans t o coerce i n d i v i dCONCLUS

35、IONThere i s a fleeting opportunity t o finally e fails and Libya returns t o war, t h e country increase their presence theret o the d e t r iThe reality i s that i t i s long past time for their shared interest i n stabilising Libya, shortcomings o f t h e U N process and working approach will req

36、uire a major effort b y a pt h e investmentt h e investmenta stable Libya, a bulwarkEuropeEuropes geopoliticalcredentialsshouldABOUT THE AUTHORTarek M e g e r i s i i s a policy fellow with t h e Council o n Foreign Relations. H e has w o r k eACKNOWLEDGEMENTSIwouldlike t o thanka number o f i n t e

37、 r I o c uEast and North Africa f o r their considered i n thispaper. JulienBarnes-Dacey, JeremyForeign Relations also deserve special t h a process.This paper was made possible through t h e foreign ministries o f Denmark, Norway, and programme.Spoiler alert: How6(8ansavediplomacy i nl 8L i b y cIN

38、TRODUCTIONO n 2 3 October 2020, military delegations f r ceasefire, officially ending a conflict that Hyde nature o f the U N political process i n had worked hard behind t h e scenes since h otriumph. They had helped pull Libya back f international political pressure o n t h e com However, Libya s

39、political elites and t h e s sides appeared, once again, t o b e using t h i game i n Libya. And t h e current round o f di S k h i r a t Process, i n which some o f t h e same a n earlier iteration o f the same war.Many observers now fearthat t h e current 1 i1 e d b y a missrisk i s that t h e U N

40、 processexternal pressureexternal pressureobstacles t o 1 ai s prioritising the s e m ti n g stability. U N e f f o working towards a comprehensive politicalStill, while t h e current diplomatic process much the same way a s they d i d i n 2015, this pressure o n Libyan leaders from both i n t e esc

41、alation and Libyan citizens who are w e a serviceshas created a fleeting b u t real oconfronting Libyans and external players i s nothing ambitions o f the incumbent Libyan needs t o acknowledge t h e lessons o f past f a and Europeans need t o pressure key spoilers disrupting t h e diplomatic proce

42、ss.Here, Europeans arewellplaced t opolitical transition backo n track,supportespecial1 e d diplomatic initiative1 e d diplomatic initiativethat unfolded lastweaknessesweaknesseso f t h e currentapproach,EuropeSpoiler alert: How BEGiF6c8a n save diplomacy i n 2 L i b y as q n s 4juqujqqjpSUOIJU9AJ0J

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46、u j A j i u n b u o i j u u s u K q i q )J O J J 9 pQJEUlpJOOO UISP9J0Ul X()UP9IJIUIS i s s i tu Nfl9 q j j o s 9 1 x o j d u u K q 1 qo j poou suuodojng 6 p A q 1 q u 1 s p o 1 9 ) p j j s 9 ) 1 u fj 9 q ) sb q o n s s j o ) o p ujojj9 q ) u 1 u 1 ) j n s o j j 9 q j o u p quoUlS90U9J9JJIpI p u n o

47、 j u u o 1 j 1 i v o o 0A0-uiJ9jsiuiiu e p 1 n q9 j v ) u q j s 9 j n ) s uu9dojng 9 o j q j 9 q j 9 j 1 n b 9 j u 1 j oi p 9 9 u im suudojng 6 s s 9 o o j d ) u 0 j j n o C q i q u 19 1 o A o s n o 1 o 1 a oqi p u 0 o )01? K 9 q ) js n o 1 ) p j j A j S up9p99u-qontuForum ( L P D F ) which created a new road mw product o f months o f diplomacy b y the UN, designed t o avert a showdown between Turke failed 1 4 - m o n t h assault o n Tripoli b y Field (L A A F ) . Tha (offensive collapsed i n s p e c t a counterattack b y forces aligned with LibyaThe nature o f H a f t a r s defeat, i n wh