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1、ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARYIVINTRODUCTION 1DEFINING SPACE WARFARE AND SPACE WEAPONS 3FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING SPACE WEAPONS 5EXISTING INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS 9PROPOSED INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS 12RECENT ACTIVITIES AND STATEMENTS 17CONCLUSIONS 22ABOUTTHE AUTHOR 24Framework for Evaluating Space WeaponsW
2、hile there is no universally agreed upon definition for what constitutes a space weapon, it is useful to begin by establishing a broad framework (with some boundaries) for what could potentially be considered a space weapon and then evaluating how different definitions fit into this framework. Using
3、 a broad view of space weapons, something could be considered a space weapon if it either originates in space or has effects in space. Weapons that originate on Earth and have effects on Earth are generally not considered space weapons even if they transit through space, such as intercontinental bal
4、listic missiles. Ibid., 14.While there is no universally agreed upon definition for what constitutes a space weapon, it is useful to begin by establishing a broad framework (with some boundaries) for what could potentially be considered a space weapon and then evaluating how different definitions fi
5、t into this framework. Using a broad view of space weapons, something could be considered a space weapon if it either originates in space or has effects in space. Weapons that originate on Earth and have effects on Earth are generally not considered space weapons even if they transit through space,
6、such as intercontinental ballistic missiles. Ibid., 14. Space systems that are merely used for passive support to other forces, such as communications, PN or intelligence collection, are also generally not considered to be space weapons. A space weapon is used to apply force directly against an adve
7、rsary (force application) or to directly interfere with an adversary/s ability to conduct military operations in, through, or enabled by space (space control). While it is true that any satellite could theoretically be used as a crude weapon to collide with another satellite, it is also true that an
8、y hard object could be used as a weapon to strike another person. This line of logic leads to the trivial conclusion that everything is a weapon regardless of intent or use. This analysis looks instead at how objects are used or are intended to be used.The proposed framework, shown in Table 1, categ
9、orizes potential space weapons by the domains in which they originate and have effects (Earth-to-space, space-to-space, and space-to-Earth) as well as the physical means by which these effects are achieved (kinetic and non-kinetic). For the purposes of this analysis, Earth is defined as anything bel
10、ow 100 km altitude and space is anything 100 km and above, including the moon and other celestial bodies. Of the six categories, three categories of space weapons have been demonstrated by nations either through testing, deployment, or operational use (Earth-to-space kinetic, Earth-to-space non-kine
11、tic, and space-to-space kinetic).While there are many other ways to categorize and subdivide the broad range of possible space weapons, the six resulting categories in this framework prove useful for highlighting differences in definitions, how countries view space weapons, and the current state of
12、space weaponization. For example, within each category, the effects created can be permanent or temporary, depending on the means of attack. Another important subcategorization within kinetic attacks is between conventional and nuclear.This framework illustrates that unless one takes a rather narrow
13、 definition of space weapons that excludes space-to-space kinetic forms of attack, space has already been weaponized.Earth-to-space weapons include direct-ascent ASAT missiles (kinetic), uplink satellite jamming (non-kinetic), directed energy ASAT weapons (non-kinetic), and cyberattacks against sate
14、llites (non-kinetic). The United States, China, Russia, and India have all demonstrated direct-ascent ASATTable 1: Framework for Types of Space Weaponsgeds，ovgedsJZteUJorgedsKineticExampleDirect-ascent ASATHow do they work?A missile fires a warhead or projectile into space to directly strike or deto
15、nate near a target satellite. The warhead can be conventional or nuclear.What are the effects?A kinetic Earth-to-space weapon produces space debris that can affect the safe operation of other satellites in affected orbits. Nuclear detonations in space increase the radiation exposure of other satelli
16、tes and can significantly shorten their lifespan.Have they been demonstrated?Earth-to-space kinetic weapons have been tested by the United States, Russia, China, and India. The United States and Soviet Union tested nuclear weapons in space in the 1960s.ExamplesCo-orbital ASAT Space-based Missile Def
17、ense InterceptorsHow do they work?A satellite is placed into orbit and maneuvers to intercept its target by striking it directly or detonating a conventional or nuclear warhead in its vicinity.What are their effects?A kinetic space-to-space weapon would produce space debris that can affect the safe
18、operation of other satellites in similar orbits. A nuclear detonation in space would increase the radiation exposure of other satellites and significantly shorten their lifespan.Have they been demonstrated?The Soviet Union tested co-orbital kinetic ASAT weapons repeatedly during the Cold War.Non-Kin
19、eticExamplesUplink Jammer, Laser Dazzler/Blinder, CyberattackHow do they work?Non-kinetic counterspace weapons can be stationed on ground, maritime, or airborne platforms and used to affect the operation of satellites or the sensors they carry, without making physical contact.What are the effects?No
20、n-kinetic weapons disrupt or degrade the ability of satellites to function properly. They can have temporary or permanent effects, but they do not generally produce orbital debris or other collateral damage.Have they been demonstrated?Multiple nations have demonstrated these capabilities, including
21、Russia, China, Iran, and others.ExamplesSpace-based Global Strike (eg,Rods from God)How do they work?Weapons are placed in orbit and, when commanded, deorbit and reenter the atmosphere to strike a target on the Earth. Damage can be inflicted using the kinetic energy of the weapon itself, or a warhea
22、d can be deployed from the reentry vehicle (either conventional or nuclear).What are their effects?The effects depend greatly on the type of warhead used (conventional or nuclear) but would be like terrestrialbased ballistic missiles in terms of their ability to hit targets anywhere on Earth with li
23、ttle warning.Have they been demonstrated?While the idea of using space-based weapons for prompt global strike has been contemplated by the U.S. military, there are no open-source examples of such a system being tested.ExamplesCo-orbital Crosslink Jammer,Co-orbital High-powered MicrowaveHow do they w
24、ork?A satellite is placed into orbit and uses non-kinetic means (such as a high-powered microwave or jammer) to disrupt the operation of another satellite.What are their effects?They can degrade, disrupt, or destroy a target satellite without making physical contact, producing orbital debris or othe
25、rwise affecting other satellites. The effects can be temporary or permanent depending on the form of attack used and the protections on the target satellite.Have they been demonstrated?No open-source examples could be found of such a system being demonstrated, although such tests could look like rem
26、ote proximity operations to outside observers.ExamplesSpace-based Downlink Jammer,Space-based High-powered LaserHow do they work?A satellite equipped with a non-kinetic weapon could target forces on Earth, such as a laser used to intercept missiles or aircraft in-flight or a jammer used to interfere
27、 with radars or satellite ground stations.What are their effects?When used, the effects would be localized to the target area, but such a system could theoretically strike anywhere without warning.Have they been demonstrated?While the U.S. military has contemplated space-based lasers for boost-phase
28、 missile defense, there are no open-source examples of such a system being tested.capabilities. Todd Harrison, Kaitlyn Johnson, and Thomas Roberts, Space Threat Assessment 2019 (Washington, DC: CSIS, April 2019), 3,11-12,19-20, s:/ csis.org/analysis/space-threat-assessment-2019. Missile defense syst
29、ems can also double as direct-ascent ASAT weapons against satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO), as the United States demonstrated in 2008 with its use of an SM-3 missile interceptor to strike its own malfunctioning satellite. Staff Reporters, Navy Hits Satellite with Heat-Seeking Missile/ Space , Feb
30、ruary 21, 2008, s:/ space /5006-navy-hits-satellite-heat-seeking-missile.html. Uplink jamming of satellite communications signals, which interferes with the signal received on the satellite, is a more commonly available means of attacking space systems. Iran, Libya, and Egypt, for example, have each
31、 been accused of using uplink jammers to interfere with satellites. Harrison, Johnson, and Roberts, Space Threat Assessment 2019,28-29,35,39. Directed energy weapons, such as lasers designed to dazzle or blind the sensors on satellites, can also be used to attack satellites in space from Earth. Chin
32、a has demonstrated the ability to dazzle a satellite with a laser from Earth, and Russia is reportedly developing new land and airborne lasing systems to replace its older Sokol Eshelon airborne lasing aircraft. Andrea Shalal-Esa/China Jamming Test Sparks U.S. Satellite Concerns* Reuters, October 5,
33、 2006, as quoted in Yousaf Butt, “Effects of Chinese Laser Ranging on Imaging Satellites/ Science & Global Security 17, no. 1 (2009): 20-35; Pavel Podvig, Russia Has Been Testing Laser ASATf Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, October 8,2011, :/russianforces.org/blog/2011/10/russia_has_been_testing_la
34、ser.shtml.Unless one takes a rather narrow definition of space weapons that excludes space-to-space kinetic forms of attack, space has already been weaponized.Space-to-space methods of attack include a broad range of kinetic and non-kinetic coorbital ASAT weapons and space-based missile defense syst
35、ems. A kinetic co-orbital ASAT can be used to crash into another satellite or to detonate a conventional or nuclear explosive near another satellite. During the Cold War, Russia conducted some 20 tests of its IstrebitelSputnikov co-orbital ASAT system, and since then it has continued to develop and
36、test kinetic co-orbital ASAT weapons. Asif A. Siddiqi, The Soviet Co-Orbital Anti-Satellite System: A Synopsis/ Journal of the British Interplanetary Society 50, no. 6 (1997): 225-40, :/faculty.fordham.edu/siddiqi/writings/p7_siddiqijbis_is_histo- ry_1997.pdf.Sputnikov co-orbital ASAT system, and si
37、nce then it has continued to develop and test kinetic co-orbital ASAT weapons. Asif A. Siddiqi, The Soviet Co-Orbital Anti-Satellite System: A Synopsis/ Journal of the British Interplanetary Society 50, no. 6 (1997): 225-40, :/faculty.fordham.edu/siddiqi/writings/p7_siddiqijbis_is_histo- ry_1997.pdf
38、. A non-kinetic co-orbital ASAT weapon could use jamming to interfere with satellite-to-satellite communications links or a high-power microwave weapon to damage electrical components on other satellites. Non-kinetic space-to-space weapons could be difficult to detect because their use may not be re
39、adily observable from Earth, and on-orbit tests against ones own satellites could look like remote proximity operations to outside observers. Space-based missile defense systems, while not intended to target other satellites, would also have an inherent space-to-space capability. For decades the Uni
40、ted States has studied and debated developing a constellation of space-based kinetic interceptors and space-based high-powered lasers capable of intercepting missiles in flight, although nothing has been deployed or demonstrated to date. See: Bob Preston et al., Space Weapons Earth Wars (Santa Monic
41、a, CA: RAND, 2002), s:/ rand.org/ pubs/monograph_reports/MR1209.html.Space-to-Earth weapons can be used to hold targets at risk across broad areas of the Earth. Kinetic space-to-Earth weapons can be armed with conventional or nuclear warheads, or they can use sheer kinetic energy to destroy targets.
42、 For example, the so-called “Rods from God” concept called for a constellation of satellites armed with tungsten rods that would deorbit and strike targets on Earth with explosive force, although no such system was ever developed or tested.23 Non-kinetic space-to-Earth weapons include space-based ja
43、mmers that could disrupt the downlink signals from satellites over large regions and space-based high-powered lasers that could target objects in the air or on the surface, although the technology required for this remains challenging.Four of the six categories listed above involve weapons designed
44、to attack satellitescommonly referred to as counterspace weapons. Not all counterspace weapons, however, are included in this framework. Weapons that are based on Earth and have effects on Earth are not considered space weapons under this framework, even if they may affect the ability to use space s
45、ystems. An example of this would be a cruise missile or cyberattack against a satellite ground station. The attack originates on Earth and has effects on Earth, which means it would not be considered a space weapon under this framework, even though it would be a counterspace weapon.Existing Internat
46、ional AgreementsExisting international agreements that limit different types of space activities provide insight into other nations* perspectives on space weapons and which activities and capabilities they want to restrict. No agreements exist today that completely limit space weapons within any of
47、the six categories of the framework. However, some agreements limit certain types of space weapons that are subsets within the categories listed above.One of the first international agreements to limit activities in space was the Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963. The treaty came about in part because
48、 both the United States and Soviet Union were testing nuclear weapons in space and, in the process, discovering the grave effects these weapons had on the overall space environment. In 1961 and 1962, the Soviet Union conducted a series of high-altitude nuclear tests with relatively low-yield warhead
49、s (1.2 to 40 kilotons), which prompted the United States to begin a high-altitude test program of its own. On July 9,1962, the United States detonated a massive 1,400-kiloton warhead at an altitude of 400 km over the Pacific in a test known as Starfish Prime. Phil Plait,“The 50th anniversary of Starfish Prime: the nuke that shook the world/ Discover, July 9,2012,