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1、Global Research21 May 2020UBS Global I/OAutos/Industrial SemiconductorsQ2 should mark the trough, what pace of recovery?EquitiesGlobalSemiconductorsFocus shifts to recovery - after -15% in *20E we see 26% growth in 121EAs investor focus shifts from short-term/balance sheet resilience towards the pac
2、e of recovery we might expect in 2021E, in this note we revisit our leading indicator analysis and revise our auto semis revenue model. We recognise risks to the pace of recovery and hurdles as Europe/US lockdowns ease but remain positive on the sector. We see a number of catalysts to support stocks
3、 including: 1) Semis y-o-y growth is likely already at trough in Q2/Q3 given the rapid slow-down with a sharp return to growth in view for 2021E; 2) Trends in auto production cant get much worse than Q2 and should improve into Q3; 3) Potential government stimulus plans in autos (as recently discusse
4、d in EU) that also might have some bias towards EV (positive for semis content).Revising our autos semis revenue modelWe revisit our autos semis revenue model reflecting our latest production estimates - we now forecast -15% auto semis revenues in 2020E (was -3%) before recovering +26% in 2021E (was
5、 +13%). We continue to see a very strong content opportunity in auto semis (+8% through cycle) driven by increasing share of EV deployments and rising penetration of ADAS safety systems (both undiminished by COVID-19). There is some potential that auto semis sales could be helped in 2020E by mix shi
6、fting towards premium cars (something being seen in China) and inventory build as Tier 1s / OEMs look to ensure more resilience but our focus is more on the reacceleration in 2021E.State of play - sector leading indicators trending positivelyOur leading indicator work points to: 1) y-o-y semis rev g
7、rowth troughing in Q2120 at -16% y-o-y then recovering in H2. We also note that on a 2-year CAGR basis (given 19 was a challenging year) this 19-20 downcycle is seeing a similar pace of slow-down for the industry as that seen in *08-09. 2) Inventory within semis remains elevated (6 days above normal
8、); autos OEMs/Tier 1s are currently 8 days above normal (though in absolute in-line with normal levels) while industrial OEMs are in-line with normal trends. 3) We believe semis are over-shipping demand in Q2 but should normalise in Q3.Valuation / preferred stocksThe sector is trading on 19x *21E P/
9、E, not cheap compared to 1y forward average of 18x but we see potential for earnings momentum to accelerate as end demand stabilises/recovers. Our most preferred names are Infineon, Renesas, Rohm and STMicro. Least preferred are Melexis and TXN (though we recently upgraded to Neutral).David Mulholla
10、nd, CFAAnalyst +44-20-7568 4069Francois-Xavier BouvigniesAnalyst +44-20-7568 7105Timothy ArcuriAnalyst +1-415-352 5676Nicolas GaudoisAnalyst +852-2971 5681Kenji YasuiAnalyst +81-3-5208 6211Shingo Hirata, CFAAnalyst +81-3-5208 6224Bill LuAnalyst +1-415-352 4696Patrick Hummel, CFAAnalyst +41-44-239 79
11、 23David LesneAnalyst +33-1-4888 3034This report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 17. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have
12、 a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Figure 15: Q1 Industrial OEM inventoriesSource: UBS, Company dataFigure 14: Industrial OEM inventory daysSource: UBS, Company da
13、ta6SZ 3 83Z mo8EZ a Z.EZ mo 二 OZo9SZ mo9SZ 3 sszm。InEz 3 lz go Z0Z5 mEz mo mwz5 zsz sN3Z 5 Absolute inventory levels leave less concern: If we dig into the absolute inventory levels - to remove the impact of the sharp reduction in COGS towards the end of the quarter - this illustrates that COGS are
14、tracking largely in-line with normal levels. Within automotive - we had seen inventory rise a lot in 2017/18 which was then starting to normalise. In industrial the inventory level has fallen in recent years although part of this is due to some disposals which are hard to adjust for.Figure 16: Absol
15、ute automotive inventory level (US$m)200,000180,000160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,0000zo oZ CNl mOf Ofm T- o z cn o寸 T- o z5in in5 SCN CMo CM5ZZ8r- r- oooCM CN CN l m l D D Of6O CM5o CM o CM 5Figure 17: Absolute industrial inventory level (US$m)Industrial OEMs InvAveragezCrzTCrCfrs
16、i cn Oz cn Ofz z z z l m l m Cr Cr Cf CfZZZZZc-rny-mx-rn1-CfCrCfCfCrOfCfOf OfAutomotive OEMs InvLine AverageSource: UBS, Company dataSource: UBS, Company dataWe include below a summary of some of the inventory comments made by OEMs both in the automotive and industrial end markets post Q1. They high
17、light the emphasis being placed on managing inventory near-term to preserve cash and is why we expect Q2/Q3 will likely be challenging quarters for the industry.Figure 18: Comments on inventory from Automotive OEMs/suppliersSource: Company conference call transcripts and Q1 20 press releases, UBSCom
18、paniesCommentsBMW1/ A key indicator for us in this will be monitoring our inventories.2/ The first quarter also saw a seasonal increase in inventories, which was amplified by the closure of retail outlets. While the plants are ramping up production, we will focus on systematically reducing our inven
19、tory levels as soon as sale channels reopen.3/ So why did inventory build up? Well, because we had a very, very good level of incoming orders in the first couple of weeks. So we were really running full steam on top. If you look at the value of our products, we had a very positive mix effect, X7 for
20、 the first time with a full year effect. So in Q1 2019, no X7, 8 series fully available. So this definitely didnt help. However, of course, clear focus is on reducing inventory level in order to reduce our working capital.4/ On the inventory management, almost any plant currently produces cars for C
21、hina.5/ If we look as of 31st of March, where - in which markets did we have inventory? Number one, U.S.; number two, U.K.; number three, China. 6/ And then in U.K. full stop and in the U.S., plus/minus 70% of the dealers closing, and this is why we had most of our inv in those 2 markets. 1/ InConti
22、nentalterms of inventories, elevated tire stocks from retail projects that started in March have been mitigated by production shutdowns, putting us in a position to have a lower year-on year inventory figures in Tires in Q2.2/ Some inventory buildup at the OEM level may have occurred as well in Q1.3
23、/ There also was a slight raw material tailwind, but this was partially offset by inventory valuation effects.4/ To start with the inventory buildup, we have seen it on 2 dimensions. One was just an overall inventory buildup of finished cars, which we observed in the U.S. I think there was a 5% inve
24、ntory increase from February to March, which is probably something where we had a level of effects, which might - and this is your following question, which might impact then the ramp up phase because this buildup in inventories at the ramp-up phase will probably be used.5/ (.) we -1 mean we dont kn
25、ow one by one, but we suppose there was some inventory buildup specifically at electronic components.6/ But we want to make sure that at the end of each month and basically (inaudible) each month and for you important at the end of each quarter, we achieve on the sales last - of the last month of th
26、is quarter and the sales of the next month following the quarter, which is obviously for the inventory is important, that there, we are on the same level and the same quarters, which we have had before.Daimler1/ In terms of production, it follows a similar pattern as we see it on the cars and vans s
27、ide, that we manage a balance between the demand and the production to not run out the inventories.GM1/ We also had finished goods inventory in transit of $2 billion, which we expect to liquidate during the same time period.2/ Our inventory levels remain lean and well positioned as we came out of th
28、e strike. We ended April with 550,000 units of inventory.3/ And John, as we think about coming back online here, we obviously have a close eye on dealer inventory by vehicle line. And all the geographies as well, not all of them are created equal, and we have different levels of inventory in differe
29、nt regions. So as we come back online, we will prioritize, to Marys point, trucks as well as the specific terms and the mixes of the most profitable vehicles as well as geographies that are running right from an inventory standpoint.4/ From a dealer inventory and sales perspective, I would say that
30、you cannot paint the entire country with the same brush. In the geographies that are not the coasts, Brian, we*re continuing to see strength in trucks and therefore, lower levels of inventory.5/1 would say, Ryan, in addition to what I already said, the other data point I would give you is just comin
31、g out of the strike, as you pointed out, the dealers have done an exceptionally good job of selling from a low inventory base. They*re selling pretty deep, and they learned to - learned how to operate at a low inventory level.PSA1/ After closing its production sites in China, the group was very reac
32、tive in closing all its European plants in order to control its inventories and protect its cash.2/ As a result, the level of inventory at the end of March was slightly below the level of last year in spite of the very low sales in March.3/ But the question is what is the speed in which we ramp up b
33、ecause we definitely want to avoid building more inventories thats what we have. We will be helped by the fact that we entered the crisis with a huge order book.4/ So it*s difficult to say what will be the final working capital effect. And clearly, the payable - among the 3 factors, payable inventor
34、ies and receivable are the most volatile one in the coming 3 months.5/ The top priority in the coming days and weeks is the restart of the production and to manage correctly the cash flow to avoid generating too many inventories.6/ But on the short term, I think what is logical is to have a decrease
35、 in total inventories. So the level of production compared to the level of sales should be lower, which should not be a huge issue in the coming weeks and months.Renault1/ (.) global inventories stood at 660,000 units versus 656,000 units a year ago.2/ Well, on the inventory, I think it looks maybe
36、high, but versus other references, and, Denis, correct me if Im wrong, we have a lot of orders, very strict orders, strong orders, which were supposed to be delivered in this 660,000 - that could not be delivered at the end of the minute. So it looks high but a big portion of that is really orders w
37、hich were about to be delivered and could not be delivered. So thats the first point I would say on the inventory.Volkswagen1/ In relation to inventory, we ended Q1 with a certain amount of overstock when comparing the balance sheet level of inventory at the end of Q1 versus the amount at the end of
38、 2019.2/ However, we need to be very carefully - we need to very carefully balance ramping up production with inventory management.3/ Certainly, one of the areas where we need to do probably even a little better than in the past is certainly on inventory management, but we have a clear focus, and I
39、think in my elaborations earlier this afternoon, I made it very clear that we will continue to balance very carefully, deliveries and production.4/ So from todays perspective, I dont think that the school book on proper inventory management needs to be rewritten.5/ And in terms of money tied up, I w
40、ould need to dig into the numbers a bit deeper. I think generally speaking, yes, we had a quite relevant build-up of inventories.6/ But we will watch like hawks, the balance between production, inventory and sales and deliveries.Figure 18 (cont): Comments on inventory from industrial OEMs / Distribu
41、torsCompaniesComments1/ On the stocking side, yes, I think we mentioned on the stocking side a little bit on the discrete automation side that we thought there were some increases on the inventory. That probably might be some of our partners that also wanted to secure their businesses. Its difficult
42、 to know exactly in the details what that has coming. We have also seen a small buildup in inventory within the group, but that is more related to these difficult trading ABBconditions and the logistic issues that you are getting to move goods and people all around the world as we have said. But I d
43、ont think we see theinventory buildup among all our partners as the biggest issue. I think ifs more the demand on the other side, which - the end customer demand that is going to be challenged during the second quarter.1/ As Chinas economic activity continues to improve, the recovery in vehicle prod
44、uction has been relatively slow as dealer inventories remain high Aptivand retail demand is slowly improving.1/ Through January, operations were relatively normal and undisturbed by COVID-19, although broader electronic component and IT demand were softening exiting the 2019 inventory correction and
45、 tariff-driven market slowdown.2/ The portion of customers saying they had appropriate levels of inventory increased compared to last year. The portion of customers saying they A, ei tr njhad too much inventory remained higher than normal but decreased compared to last year. To-date, we have not fac
46、ed significant challengesnow ec ionicssecurjng the parts our customers need when they need them. Nor do we see signs of hoarding or excess inventory accumulation.3/ And you have to kind of remember that weve been in a 5-quarter decline already with what was the market slowdown prior to CO VID hittin
47、g. And so customers were reducing their inventory. Now albeit, are they still reducing their inventory? Possibly.4/ So when you have a drop like that of year-over-year sales, just be cautious, that book-to-bill is less meaningful because customers are positioning their inventories to match what thei
48、r MRP requirements are.1/1 would also say that we also maintain 50% of the capacity in our distribution centers. So everything that was available from inventory, we could Atlas Copco shift to customers as well.1/ The same goes with inventory. Our global teams focus daily on managing inventory, and we have various contractual arrangements with suppliers should our inventories become aged, obsolete or affected by changes in market prices.2/ Going forward, we want to remind you that we have a countercyclical b