澳大利亚铁矿石价格修订.docx

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1、Deutsche Bank ResearchAustralasiaAustraliaM&M - Diversified ResourcesIndustryAustralian metals and miningDate31 January 2019Industry UpdateAustralian Iron Ore: Revised PriceForecasts.James Gurry Research Analyst +61-3-9270-4104Resetting the Forecast Trend After BrazilTim HoffResearch Analyst +61-2-8

2、258-1424Key Changes CompanyTarget PriceRatingBHP.AX28.00 to 28.30-RIO.AX80.00 to 82.50-FMG. AX3.30 to 4.90-Source: Deutsche B ank|Top picksBHP (BHP.AX),AUD34.60SellRio Tinto (RIO.AX),AUD87.30HoldFortescue Metals (FMG.AX),AUD5.42SellMineral Resources (MIN.AX),AUDI 5.42BuySource: Deutsche BankTim Hoff

3、Research Analyst +61-2-8258-1424Following the tragic occurrences in Brazil and a revision to our Supply Demand estimates, our forecast surplus for iron ore in 2018 remains, but is lower now at 29Mt (43Mt previously) in 2019 and 36Mt in 2020 (65Mt) (Refer: Vale cut plan limited ir impact, supply risk

4、s still support higher price deck ). In a 1.5bn tonne market this appears less than significant but prices are now at a much higher level and risk remains to downside in our view. Our revised price forecast now calls for $68/tonne in 2019 for a declining trend from todays $81 /t to $75 then $70, $65

5、 and $63 over Q1-Q4 this year. Steel production growth of 1% in China the key driver of the bearish view and supply side reliability the recurring risk to our call.The situation remains fluid and our best estimate at this time is production cuts from Brazil are likely not immediate, but shall take p

6、lace over months as decommissioning plans are reviewed and approved with authorities. At the same time we see efforts to lift production elsewhere as VALE seeks to satisfy its customers and the market. Nonetheless we recognise the near term impact on prices for Fortescue and the Australian majors an

7、d we upgrade near term our forecasts accordingly.But FMGs valuation now factors in much positive newsFor FMG we see the lower grade discounting of iron ore versus benchmark fading as an issue and remove our additional sentiment discount we applied to our previous valuation to arrive at target price.

8、 Our revised DCF of $4.95/tonne reflects the higher iron ore price forecasts and we set our target price inline ($4.90). However with the near 40% share price rise YTD we see a lot being factored into FMG and long term prices (unchanged in our forecasts) would need to be 15% higher (closer to $66/t

9、rather than our $57/t) to justify the current share price. Our SELL rating retained, and recognise the discount for low grade ore has narrowed significantly and should be evident from Q3 onwards. EPS up 24% in FY19.For Rio Tinto - we lift estimates for EPS by 15%, 17% and 4%. Our valuation and targe

10、t price from $80 to $82.50/share. HOLD retained as it is strongly positioned for shareholder returns into February full year results, and has guided iron ore production this year to a range of 12Mt (338-350Mt) and with VALE now likelyDeutsche Bank AG/SydneyDistributed on: 31/01/2019 08:39:09 GMTDeut

11、sche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should considerSupply risk premium supports higher price deck, trend lower

12、 still projectedFollowing the collapse of the Feijao tailings dam (part of Vales Paraopeba complex in Minas Gerais State) and tragic human impact, Vale announced on Tuesday evening a move to decommission 10 of their upstream tailing dams over a 3-year period, which posited an average annual 40Mt pro

13、duction-cut impact as part of this move. This sizeable volume figure, equivalent to our entire supply growth and surplus for 2019, triggered an initial surge in iron ore prices on expectations of a material tightening in the global balance. On closer inspection, however, the details of the plan sugg

14、est to us that this is an overreaction.The company themselves have indicated the following: 1. the cut figure is an estimate, 2. it will not be immediate, and 3. Management expect limited net fines losses. We still estimate some lost volumes, cutting our Vale output forecast by 10Mt for 2019 and 5Mt

15、 for 2020 to reflect inefftiencies in sequencing volumes. Although those are limited volumes in the broader seaborne market context, we, nonetheless, increase our iron ore 62% fines forecast for 2019 (USD 68/t) and 2020 (USD 65/t) due primarily to an elevated supply-disruption risk premium in the po

16、st-Feijao dam disaster environment. We expect iron ore prices to moderate (see figure 13), but at a higher level than projected.Vales cut plan limited in net fines impact, pellet impact much more material The volatility in iron ore prices last two session has reflected the markets interpretation of

17、Vales limited statements regarding the dam decommissioning plan and associated production cuts. With greater clarity, the key points on the production cut figure quoted are as follows: (1) Vale believe they can limit any net loss in fines by increasing output at 50Mty of spare capacity in Southern/S

18、outh Eastern system (no flex in Northern system aside from their S11D) though there could be some negative impact on quality; (2) the dam decommissioning (and therefore the cuts) will not occur instantly, it could be several months (plan must be submitted in 45 days to the authorities; (3) 40Mt cut

19、is an average annual loss estimate, and the starting cut could be well below this and may never reach that figure; and (4) Pellet production cut of 11 Mt will be material as that is 10% of seaborne pellet market and cant be replaced by other pellet supply (by Vale), only 4Mt sinter feed to partially

20、 offset.Source: Deutsche Bank, Wood MackenzieSource: Deutsche Bank, Wood MackenzieSource: Deutsche Bank, Company DataIn sum, Vales dam decommissioning plan and related output-reduction strategy points to a negligible net impact on fine production, no immediate impact to production (for fines or pell

21、et), but a material impact on pellet supply when the cuts do eventually emerge. This view of the strategy is at odds with the initial bullish market reaction to the press release that Vale issued on Tuesday. We do, however, still expect some reduction in Vales output this year and next, given there

22、will inevitably be inefftiencies in attempting to sequencing offeetting production increases to cuts at other operations.Policy risks to Vale supply still exist, expected Samarco delay cuts 2020 supply growthThe detail on Vales cut plan suggest the related surge higher in iron ore prices on its init

23、ial read was misplaced. Iron ore prices peaked at close to USD 86/t early on Wednesday before closing the day 6% lower. Although the realisation that Vale plan to keep their guidance on fines close to 400Mty will offer a negative jolt in the context of the 40Mt cut figure, we equally think it is wro

24、ng to assume there is no risk of supply losses in Brazil. In terms of Vale and the tragic Feijao dam disaster, the production cuts announced so far have been a reflection of Vales response strategy and recognizing that there will be an acute focus on tailing dams safety. The Minas Gerais government

25、and judiciary have yet to respond with their penalties, financial or operational, which still leave some risk of other cuts being imposed. The authorities could reject Vales dam decommissioning plan and demand deeper cuts, or even block any offsetting production increases whilst the cuts are execute

26、d.In addition beyond just Vale and their production risks, we now expect a much more challenging environment for mining licensing in Brazil and particularly for tailing licenses. In this respect, we have pushed back our assumptions on the restart of the Samarco mine from 2020 to 2021, as well as cut

27、ting initial volumes. This is important in terms of moderating expected supply growth in 2020 and in turn our increase in price levels for that year (to USD 65/t from USD 58/t previously).Pellet market looks set to remain tight on 10% cut to seaborne market Although the risks of material cuts to fin

28、es supply lie outside Vales own production plan, the impact of their 11 Mt cut in pellet feed for pellet production cannot be replaced by Vale. Given that represents close to 10% of the global seaborne pellet market (116Mt In 2018), if that volume was taken out, it would be significant tightening ef

29、fect on the balance and support for prices. Although the pellet cuts should be caveated by the same uncertainty on time frame of application, given there is no offeetting source of volumes, we would expect pellet premiums to discount this tightening effect in advance.Iron ore fines market set to rem

30、ain in modest surplus, price moderationIron ore prices have surged higher since the tragic dam collapse occurred at the end of last week. The immediate uncertainty of the situation has supported this price path. We see prices well supported in the short term, given the elevated risk of further cuts

31、emerging. However, based on our current assessment of the fundamental outlook, unless a far more substantive operational constraints are introduced for Vale, benchmark iron ore prices should moderate over the course of the year and supply-disruption risk premium dissipates.Figure 19: Premium grade p

32、ricing likely to be supported in short term401003080207010605004030-202010-300Jan-19Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LPSource:Deutsche Bank, Vale estimates460Figure 21 :Vale possess 50Mty of spare iron ore production capacity to offset cuts-40Nov-17Iron 58% (nigh alumina) versus 62% discount

33、Iron 58% (low alumina) versus 62% discountIron 65% versus 62% premiumNominal capacity 450Jan-18 Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18 Nov-18222017552018e019e2020eFigure 20: S11D production seen as key source of Vale volume growth 2019-20440Mt420400380360340320300280Figure 22: Pellet premium expected to see stron

34、g1 Pellet premium (USD/t)Source:Deutsche Bank, Vale estimatesSource: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LPFigure 23:Vale pellet capacity (Mtpy)Figure 24: Vale dominant supply force in the seaborne pellet market70 Seaborne602020800700600500400300200100Tubarao I / II/ VIIISao Luis+33%4521065141166022025

35、e2014-20172018Source:Deutsche Bank, Vale estimatesSource:Deutsche Bank, Vale estimatesDeutsche Bank Iron ore price forecastsIron ore price forecastsUSD201flQI 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 1920112020202120222023Long term real priceIron Ore Spot Landed Fines Price in China CIF (t)7075706563686460606257% Change from

36、 previous forecast0.0%It.4%11.1%8.3%t.o%10.1%9.9%2.7%O.O%0.0%0.0%Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Bloomberg Finance LP, WINDFigure 25: Seaborne Iron Ore Supply Demand modelSeaborne Exports201420172018120198202U20244BraziMt44645045546449Q但483478growth%8%4%-2%6%3%1%1%6%1%0%-1%-1%AustraliaMt747BOCB5，87

37、4B94B9890S926921934934932growth%24%7%6%3%2%1%1%2%-1%1%0%0%South AfricaMt8381588157BEBEBEBEBEBE52growth%11%-3%-5%4%-6%-3%0%0%0%0%0%-4%ndiaMt02151fi00000000growth%-100%0%667%20%-100%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%South East AsiaMt1700000000000growth%-55%-100%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Midd e EastMt1791418ie13643222growth%-18

38、%-46%50%31%-12%-20%-56%-28%-32%-11%-12%-14%South America ex BraziMt2g2g32313133S404040403Sgrowth%-3%1%10%-3%2%13%10%2%-1%1%-1%-1%EuropeMt27232322222E2e272C262626growth%4%-12%0%0%-5%10%7%4%-6%0%0%0%Africa ex South AfricaMt372021力2C1S2C2C2020202Cgrowth%9%-47%6%5%-9%-4%3%0%0%0%0%0%Other exports的626261印

39、635847Tota Traded iron ore supp y growth%14.1%3.1%4.2%4.4%1锻屣眈“辨觑例Seaborne Imports20142017201812D112moimu2022fam2O242tQfiflChina stee production (crude stee|)Mt865844883875923937952947943938933928China Hot Meta (BF)Mt7B176478279E78278778477C786760751743growth%7%0%2%2%0%-1%0%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%ChinaMt974

40、10331101113(11135113511351125110S1D9Finm107Fgrowth%23%12%7%3%0%0%0%-1%-1%-1%-?%-1%Japan13F1/1iati1/11/117fl17fl12717Fgrowth%0%-3%-1%-2%0%0%0%0%0%0%-2%-1%S. KoreaMt78797778777E787E787878growth%14%2%-3%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%TaiwanMt24247F7F7F7F7fi7F2fi7fi7figrowth%8%0%4%0%0%2%2%0%0%0%0%0%ndiaMt20003579661

41、32Cgrowth%0%-100%0%0%0%69%35%18%-35%1%125%55%South East AsiaMt00058131F2127%acgrowth%0%0%-6%929%82%58%33%20%20%6%6%6%EuropeMt12S17511S12112312312512712812813013Cgrowth%1%0%-3%2%1%1%2%1%1%0%1%0%Other importsMt5242725242119182222159Tota firaded iron ce importsMt1J!961.4181.4821.B141.52212E531.5301.523

42、1.5121.5011.492growth%20%9%5%2%1%0%1%0%0%-1%-1%0%Notiona market ba anceMt7S-1-e28202SaeBe9411G114104China imported fines (62% CER)USD/tQ7717。RfiAdRfRfR2fURRSource:Deutsche Bank estimates. Company Data. Wood MackenzieModel updated: 31 January 2019Running the numbersAustralasiaMWaliBiversified Resourc

43、esBHPReuters: BHP.AXBloomberg: BHP AUoeiiPrice (30 Jan 19)AUD 34.60I arget PriceAUD 28.30隧 Wteteteapm 响AUai2Bjai1738QUSDe 125,887啕prBRftdtyifRW眠is an international resources company. The companys principal business lines are mineral and petroleum production, including coal (thermal and coking), iron

44、 ore,copper, and oil & gas (conventional and unconventional, LNG).BHP ALL ORDINARIES (Rebased)EBITDA Margin -4- EBIT MarginFiscal year end 30-Jun2016201720182019E2020E2021EFinancial SummaryDB EPS (USD)0.231.261.671.902.041.83-1.201.100.691.922.041.83DPS (USD)0.300.831.182.391.221.10加朝S (USD)10.2010.7610.449.6310.2910.97Valuation MetricsPrice/Sales (x)2.52.52.72.82.82.9