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1、iiiContentsSummary iGlobal macroeconomic trends 1Global overview 1Scenarios and regional outlook 3Pandemic destroying jobs 6Trade in goods and services 6Economic pain spreading through global trade networks 6A sudden drop in global tourism and travel 7Commodity prices in a free fall 8Developing coun
2、tries face mounting financial constraints 8Rapid, bold but uneven policy responses 10The world economy after COVID-19: Back to normal or a new normal? 12Online economy the new reality? 13Developed economies: fiscal consolidation or higher taxes? 13Developing countries: a debt crisis, high inflation
3、or both? 14Rising poverty and inequality 14Globalization facing an existential crisis 15Stronger international cooperation for avoiding a debt crisis 16Regional economic outlook 17Developed economies 17North America 17Japan and developed Asia 17Europe 17Economies in transition 18Africa 18East Asia 1
4、9South Asia 19Western Asia 20Latin America and the Caribbean 21References22Commodity prices in a free fallCommodity prices plummeted in early 2020, as the pandemic upended global demand and supply. Crude oil prices in the United States fell into negative territory for the first time in history (Figu
5、re 6), amid falling demand, and rising inventory and storage reaching full capacities, fte recent agreement between the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia to cut output did little to prevent the extreme volatility in oil price, which signals that market participants remain unsure that demand for oi
6、l and economic activity will pick up anytime soon.Figure 6US dollars per barrelUS dollars per barrelWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Front Month Futures (daily closing price)70 _50.30.10 .- 10.Source: New York Mercantile Exchange.- 30 _50 .1-Jan 15-Jan 29-Jan 12-Feb 26-Feb 11-Mar 25-Mar 8-Apr
7、 22-AprOil and commodity prices are likely to remain depressed in the near term, which will push many commodity-dependent economies, especially those who are already saddled with high levels of external debt, closer to an economic crisis. Falling export revenues will also constrain their ability to
8、commit adequate financial resources to fight the pandemic, scale up health preparedness, or extend income support to households most affected by the crisis and stimulate recovery. Most commodity-dependent economies would need to brace for a long, painful recovery, while avoiding a financial crisis (
9、Rashid, Vergara, Afonso and Pitterle, 2020).Developing countries face mounting financing constraintsEquity, bond and currency markets experienced unprecedented volatility during March 2020, reflecting significant uncertainties in the short-run. Monetary and fiscal measures adopted by the United Stat
10、es and countries in Europe are yet to calm investors worldwide. While these measures increased global liquidity, financing conditions tightened, as many developing countries, especially economies with large fiscal and current account deficits and low levels of reserves, are facing significantly high
11、er borrowing costs.Yields on 10-year government bonds of many developing economies, including Brazil, Colombia, Nigeria and South Africa, increased by more than 2.0 percentage points, amid investor panic and increasing flight to safety. In parallel, the Brazilian real, the Mexican peso and the South
12、 African rand have depreciated by about 30 per cent against the dollar between January and March, pushing up debt-to-GDP ratios and amplifying risks of debt distress, as most of their debt is denominated in US dollars.fte fiscal cost of fighting the health crisis and implementing much-needed stimulu
13、s measures will be prohibitive for many developing countries. Many of them are in a much weaker position today to confront the crisis than they were in 2008-2009. During the period 2016-2019, developing countries grew at an average annual rate of 4 per cent, well below the 6.8 per cent in 2005-2008.
14、 fte slowdown in economic activity has been much more pronounced for commodity-dependent developing countries, which recorded annual growth of only 0.6 per cent in 2016-2019, compared to 5.7 per cent in 2005-2008.At the same time, their external financing needs are significantly larger today, with m
15、ost developing countries running larger current account deficits than in 2008. Gross external financing requirements - consisting of short-term debt, amortization of medium- and long-term debt, and the current account deficit -have significantly increased, exceeding 20 per cent of GDR for example, f
16、or Argentina, Kenya, Malaysia, South Africa, Tunisia and Turkey. For most developing countries, particularly for commodity-dependent economies, the fiscal situation is tighter now than it was in 2008 (Figure 7).Figure 7Fiscal indicators prior to the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisisAfr
17、icaEast Asia and PacificSouth AsiaWestern AsiaSIDS-6-2Commodity-dependent developing countriesCommodity-dependent developing countriesA. Fiscal balancePercentage of GDPLatin America and the Caribbean2008 2019B. Gross government debtAfricaEast Asia and PacificSouth AsiaWestern AsiaSIDSLatin America a
18、nd the CaribbeanSource: UN DESA calculations, based on IMF, World Economic Outlook database.Note: Regional figures are median values of country-level data.Developing country governments are spending an ever-increasing share of their revenues on interest payments, despite a decade of ultra-low intere
19、st rates in developed countries (Figure 8). An increasing share of public debt is owed to private creditors, denominated in foreign currencies, partly explaining rising debt servicing costs (Figure 9). In many countries, the interest burden has reached levels not seen since the large-scale debt writ
20、e-offs of the early 2000s. Last year, seven African countries2 were spending more than 20 per cent of government revenues on interest payments.Angola, Burundi, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Zambia.Source: UN DESA, based on IMF, International Debt Statistics database. Note: Regional figures are si
21、mple averages of countrylevel data.Source: UN DESA, based on IMF, International Debt Statistics database. Note: Regional figures are simple averages of countrylevel data.Figure 8Interest payments as a share of government revenueCaribbeandevelopingcountriesSource: UN DESA calculations, based on the W
22、orld Banks International Debt statistics database.Figure 9Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt, by creditor typeRapid, bold but uneven policy responsesfte pandemic has hit the world economy at a particularly difficult time, fte global economy grew at an average of 2 per cent during the past
23、10 years, compared to an average growth rate of 4 per cent during the decade before the global financial crisis. As robust economic recovery remained elusive during the past decade, most governments accumulated fiscal deficits and higher levels of debt to stimulate economic growth.Developed economie
24、s largely relied on monetary policy measures -near zero policy rates and quantitative easing to steer recovery from the Great Recession of 2009. While these measures steadied financial markets, they generally failed to boost investment and growth. Global liquidity per capita increased by 116 per cen
25、t in real terms during 2007-2018, while global GDP per capita increased only 15 per cent during the same period (Figure 10). Buoyed by additional liquidity of nearly $70 trillion, stock prices worldwide saw unprecedented increases while fixed capital formation and FDI stagnated. In real terms, per c
26、apita fixed investment increased by only 5 per cent between 2007 and 2018, while FDI per capita declined by 66 per cent.Figure 10Per capita liquidity (broad money), GDP, fixed investment and FDIFigure 10Per capita liquidity (broad money), GDP, fixed investment and FDISource: UN calculations, based o
27、n data from World Bank, World Development Indicators database.Most governments around the world are ramping up fiscal spending, providing cash transfers and tax relief to protect employment and income, and prevent bankruptcies of firms. Collectively, fiscal measures worldwide stand at $9 trillion -
28、more than 10 per cent of the 2019 total gross world product. fte United States Government rolled out emergency relief packages worth over $2.5 trillion, more than double the size of the fiscal stimulus enacted in 2009. European countries have also adopted large and multiple fiscal measures. In addit
29、ion, the European Union (EU) governing bodies temporarily suspended the rules that limit budget deficits of the EU member states. Many countries in Europe have pledged to protect employment with wage-support schemes. In Japan, the Government unveiled a stimulus package worth nearly $1 trillion (arou
30、nd 20 per cent of GDP), despite having a public debt to GDP ratio of more than 230 per cent, the highest in the world.Developing countries have limited fiscal resources to address the economic impact with large relief and stimulus measures, fteir fiscal space is limited, access to external finance i
31、s constrained, and their external balance is increasingly fragile. Most developing country governments are implementing fiscal stimulus between 1 and 2 per cent of GDE and in many cases, even less than 0.5 per cent.Monetary policy responses are complementing and reinforcing fiscal measures, as there
32、 is less room to manoeuvre now with already low interest rates. In three months during September-December 2008, developed country central banks had cut policy rates by about 4 percentage points before hitting the zero lower bound, ftis time, interest rate cuts are hitting the zero lower bound after
33、a reduction of policy rates by about 1 percentage point, fte Federal Reserve in the United States (Fed) has launched an unlimited bond-buying programme to ensure the flow of credit in the economy, fte emergency loans provided by the Fed may reach up to $2.3 trillion, fte European Central Bank (ECB)
34、announced purchases of 750 billion in bonds in 2020 to reduce borrowing costs for the euro area governments, fte Bank of Japan decided to expand its asset purchase program and provide emergency zero-interest loans to businesses short of cash. In China, the central bank, apart from cutting interest r
35、ates, decided to provide payment relief to firms especially hurt by the crisis.Monetary conditions in major economies are expected to remain accommodative during the outlook period. However, it is unlikely that monetary measures would stimulate productive investments, without appropriate targeting o
36、f funds and requiring businesses to boost investments as a condition for receiving monetary and fiscal support.The world economy after COVID-19: Back to normal or a new normal?fte COVID-19 crisis demonstrates that the economic health and the public health of a country are inextricably linked and mut
37、ually reinforcing. An economy can quickly come to a standstill if public health concerns and uncertainties prevent people from participating in everyday activities. fte longer the uncertainties persist, the harder it gets for an economy to return to its normal, pre-crisis trajectory. Uncertainties a
38、bout the future course of the pandemic and its economic and social repercussions remain high. While lockdowns have generally slowed the spread of the virus, the public remains fearful and anxious about the possibility of a second wave of the pandemic in the coining months, ftere is still no breakthr
39、ough in treatment and vaccine development. Public health experts generally agree that some form of social distancing impacting some economic activities will need to remain in place until definitive vaccines, treatment and antibody testing become readily available to all.If uncertainties about vaccin
40、e, testing and treatment persist, people will return to work with a high degree of caution and risk aversion, which will depress both consumption and investment. People will get used to a new lifestyle, leading to a permanent shift in demand for certain goods and services. Demand for restaurant meal
41、s, sporting events, movie theatres, live entertainment and tourism will likely remain low, while demand for existing and new online services will continue to rise dramatically. Social distancing can become the new normal, entrenching and possibly reinforcing fear, mistrust and prejudice among people
42、, communities, societies and countries. Countries may seek to reduce interdependence, and shorten supply chains, as many may consider the potential costs of a crippling pandemic too high relative to the benefits they receive from economic integration and interdependence, fte fight against the pandem
43、ic if it continues for too long and its economic price becomes too high - will fundamentally reshape trade and globalization.Online economy the new reality?fte crisis, amid new realities of lockdowns and social distancing, has been a boon for online retailers, social media, digital communication pla
44、tforms and streaming services. Conversely, the online ride- and accommodation-sharing gig economy is facing sharp declines in demand, fte adverse impact on the sharing economy could be long-lasting, especially if social distancing becomes the new norm (Kissler, et al., 2020), hurting the livelihood
45、of millions employed in the gig economy worldwide. Faster digitalization and the surge of economic activities online will likely eliminate many existing jobs, while creating many new jobs in the digital economy. Net employment effect could be negative or neutral depending on the current size and sco
46、pe of the digital economy and the pace, as well as permanence, of the transition to online activities.Like in any crisis, there will be winners and losers. Firms that invested in digital technologies and training have been relatively more successful in coping with the crisis than those that did not.
47、 Most notably, the ability to work remotely has become vital to ensure business continuity, fte relative operational advantage of larger firms in the digital sphere may contribute to further entrenching inequalities between large and small businesses, as many will fail during the current crisisftere
48、 is also the risk of a widening educational divide, both within and across countries, as 120 countries closed schools and other educational facilities nationwide, with far-reaching implications for an estimated 1.25 billion children and youth. Countries with high levels of digitalization and broadba
49、nd access will likely manage to minimize the impact of school closures on long-term learning. Countries with more developed digital capacities enabling contact tracing and surveillance may also fare better to prevent the resurgence of the pandemic.Developed economies: fiscal consolidation or higher taxes?In the aftermath of the crisis, most countries will face