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1、房地产评估与房地产经济学马里兰大学丁成日 Still waters run deep.流静水深流静水深,人静心深人静心深 Where there is life,there is hope。有生命必有希望。有生命必有希望What is Real Estate Economics什么是房地产经济学什么是房地产经济学Is about people and how their actions affect real estate values房地产经济研究人以及人的行为影响房地产价值Real estate economics is a study that uses economic princip
2、les,both macro and micro,to analyze the impact that national,regional,community,and neighborhood trends have on real estate values.房地产经济学使用微观和宏观经济学原则分析国家、区域、社区和邻里对房地产价值的影响It helps people to understand what causes fluctuations in real estate activity and how these changes can affect local real estate
3、 markets.房地产经济学帮助人们理解影响房地产市场涨跌以及这些变化又如何影响地方房地产市场What are Factors that Affect the Value of a Property影响房地产价值的因素影响房地产价值的因素Capital marketssupply side资本市场供给方面Labor marketsdemand side劳动力市场需求方面Population growthdemand side人口增长需求方面Market segmentationlocality of supply and demand,types or uses,characteristic
4、s of property etc.市场分割供需的地方性，类型或使用，房地产特性等What are Factors that Affect the Value of a Property影响房地产价值的因素影响房地产价值的因素Interrelationship between sub-markets of properties房地产子市场的相关性Regulations and laws(taxation,land use regulation)规定与法律（税收、土地利用规定）Urban infrastructure and neighborhood amenity城市基础设施和社区舒适度Pol
5、itical,social,and economic forces政治、社会和经济力量Capital Market and Property Market资本市场和房地产市场资本市场和房地产市场Supply of structure对结构（建筑面积）的需求Market prices and net operating income of a property(rent)市场价格和房地产净运营收入（租金）Interrelationship between capital market and real estate market(short run and long run)资本市场和房地产市场
6、的相关性（短期和长期）Real Estate Market and Market Equilibrium房地产市场和市场平衡房地产市场和市场平衡Capital market induced increases in supply,decrease in rents资本市场导致的供给增加，租金降低资本市场导致的供给增加，租金降低The impact of decrease in the market capitalization rate on real estate marketLocation and Value of a Property房地产区位和价值房地产区位和价值Supply of
7、landUrban land rent gradient and land priceRelation between urban land price and capital densityLand price and urban land use(spatial structure)土地供给城市土地租金梯度和土地价格的关系城市土地价格和资本密度的关系土地价格和城市土地利用（空间结构）Urban Land Market城市土地市场城市土地市场Supply of land is inelastic,demand is elastic土地供给是非弹性的，需求是弹性的PQSDTranslating
8、 rents to land prices将租金转化为土地价值将租金转化为土地价值Rents are a function of:Agricultural land valueValue of the structuresLocation valueExpected growth in location value租金是包括如下因子的函数：农用土地价格建筑结构价格区位价格预计区位价格的增长Translating rents to land prices将租金转化为土地价值将租金转化为土地价值Prices are a function of:Interest ratesExpected rent
9、 growthRisk of rental paymentTax regime价格是一个如下因素决定的函数：利率预计租金增长租金支付风险税收体制Land use efficiency indicated by high-degree of land-capital input substitution土地和资本投入的 相互替代程度,关系到城市土地使用效率的高低Density Profile with Land Markets土地市场下的城市密度土地市场下的城市密度 空间变化空间变化ParisLand Price(rent gradient)and Spatial Structure级差地租与空
10、间结构级差地租与空间结构CommercialIndustrialResidentialAgriculturalLand use is determined by the highest bidder.Shows economic determinants of land use segregation.Land values in multi-nuclear cities City Spatial Form and Growth City Spatial Form and GrowthHousing Economics住房经济学住房经济学Characteristics of housing c
11、ommodity and housing marketsHeterogeneity(style,rooms,location,amenity,urban services etc.)Immobility A change in housing consumption means a change in residential locationHigh transaction costsMarket segmentations房屋及其房屋市场的特性异质性（风格，房间数，位置，城市服务等）不可移动性住房消费的变化意味着驻地的变化高的交易成本分割的市场Housing Economics住房经济学住房
12、经济学What is consumed?It is attributes of housing that includes structural factors and locational amenityWide range of variation in price change across cities as well as across locality within a cityBuying a house=investment?Maybe.住房消费？消费的是房屋的属性（结构，大小，区位属性等)城市间，一个城市内部不同地理位置房屋价格基期价格的变化相当不同买房不等于投资Housin
13、g Economics住房经济学住房经济学房屋价格函数P=Housing price;房屋价格S=Vector of structure variables;结构矢量L=Vector of locational(access)variables 区位矢量N=Vector of neighborhood variables;邻里矢量 Housing Economics住房经济学住房经济学房屋价格函数What is the meaning of this partial derivatives?Marginal prices偏导的意义？边际价格Spatial drift of coefficien
14、ts(marginal prices),implying that the cost of one additional room varies across locality.边际价格的空间“漂移”,如，加一个房间的价格在不同地方是不一样的Housing Economics住房经济学住房经济学房屋市场均衡(Rosen,1974)决定房屋的价格影响房地产价格的外在因素影响房地产价格的外在因素1.Impact of Political,Social,and Economic Forces政治、社会和经济力量的影响External Factors of Property Markets房地产市场的
15、外在因素房地产市场的外在因素 2.Regional and Community Analysis 区域与社区分析3.Neighborhood Value Analysis 邻里单元价值分析4.Land Use Planning 土地利用规划 Political Forces influencing Value 政治因素影响价值 Property rights and ownership 财产权和所有权 The fifth and Fourteenth Amendments in US 美国第五和第十四修正案 Federal financing aids and fiscal policy co
16、ntrols 联邦财政补助和财政控制 Rate of interests 利率1.Impact of Political,Social,and Economic Forces政治、社会和经济力量的影响政治、社会和经济力量的影响 Social Forces influencing Value 社会因素影响价值 Population growth rate(timely and spatially)人口增长率（时间与空间）Demographic composition(age,race,gender,income)人口构成（年龄、种族、性别和收入）Housing preference(Housin
17、g/per 1000 people)住房偏好（住房/千人）1.Impact of Political,Social,and Economic Forces政治、社会和经济力量的影响政治、社会和经济力量的影响 General Economic forces Influencing Value 影响价值的经济因素Gross national product 国民生产总值Per capita income and real wage levels人均收入和实际收入水平Unemployment as a measure of full employment.Correlation between un
18、employment,property foreclosures,and property tax delinquencies失业率衡量就业水平。失业率，丧失赎回权和拖欠财产税的相关性Personal saving and investments个人存款和投资General business and real estate activity主要商业和地产活动 State and Regional Forces Influencing Value国家和区域因素影响价值 Differentials of policy and law政策和法律差异 Differentials of economic
19、 prospective 经济远景差异 etc.等等Government Tools in the Real Estate Market房地产市场中的政府手段房地产市场中的政府手段Analyze how government actions affect property value and make appropriate changes分析政府行为如何影响房地产价值并促其变化Monitor market activity to queue proposals,lessening the boom/bust cycle监控市场行为以排序发展次序，减缓涨跌循环Use economic deve
20、lopment policies to attract uses that fit with the regions master plan 使用经济发展政策来引导土地使用，其方式与强度与区域总体规划相一至Local Government and Property Value地方政府和房地产价值地方政府和房地产价值Ability to provide service affects value服务能力影响价值Crime rate 犯罪率Fire protection 火警预防Ease of doing business affects value从事商务活动的方便性影响价值Property t
21、ax rate 房地产税率Regulatory environment 政策规范环境Liquor license 酒精饮料销售许可Zoning requirements 分区要求Local Government and Property Value地方政府和房地产价值地方政府和房地产价值Externalities from nearby uses affect value周围环境等外在因素影响环境Noise from airports 机场噪声Pollution from factories 工厂污染Monitoring Land Market Activity监控土地市场活动监控土地市场活动
22、Goal is to prevent overbuilding that leads to vacancies,disinvestment,and blight目标在于防止建设过度而导致空置、蚀本和经济衰落Still need to encourage commercial development to increase property tax base and promote economic development仍需要鼓励商业开发以增加房地产税基数和促进经济发展Monitoring Land Market Activity监控土地市场活动监控土地市场活动Policy Tool:Deve
23、lopment Queuing政策工具：开发次序Planners accept proposals and grant permission to build only if market conditions indicate that demand can absorb the new space规划师审查规划方案，仅审批那些市场可以消化的建设Planners estimate market conditions through traditional means gathering data about rents,vacancy rates,current construction,j
24、ob growth,and spending patterns规划师采用传统方式收集租金数据，空置率，建设现状，就业率增长和消费模式来估计市场形势 The Real Estate Market 房地产市场Immobility 固定性Indestructibility 不可破坏性Non-homogeneity 异质性Property dissimilarity imposes special market conditions房地产的差异性形成了特殊的市场条件 2.Regional and Community Analysis区域和社区分析区域和社区分析 The Real Estate Mark
25、et 房地产市场Durability of real estate causes mal-adjustments in both supply and demand on a local market level房地产的持续性导致对地方市场供求的不当调整Studying the underlying forces creating supply and demand for real property研究形成房地产供求的潜在力量2.Regional and Community Analysis区域和社区分析区域和社区分析 Cause of Urbanization 城市化的结果 City Sp
26、atial Form and Growth 城市空间形态和增长 Regional Analysis 区域分析Regional analysis techniques:economic base analysis,regional input-output analysis 区域分析方法：经济基础分析，区域投入产出分析Regional and Community Analysis区域和社区分析区域和社区分析Population Trends and Characteristics人口趋势和特征 Economic Measures of Community Growth社区增长的经济量化 Land
27、 Use Pattern 土地利用模式Regional and Community Analysis区域和社区分析区域和社区分析 Neighborhood Defined 邻里的定义 The Neighborhood Age Cycle 邻里单元的周期3.Neighborhood Value Analysis邻里单元价值分析邻里单元价值分析临街土地价值时间成熟期成长期衰退期向次级经济活动转变老化期Neighborhood Characteristics 邻里单元的特征 Physical features 物质特征 Demographic characteristics 人口特征 Economi
28、c influences 经济影响3.Neighborhood Value Analysis邻里单元价值分析邻里单元价值分析Highest and Best Use Principle最高与最好使用原则最高与最好使用原则Highest and Best Use Principle最高与最好使用原则最高与最好使用原则ConceptsPresent valueAmortizationValue,capital rate,and rent(Net operating incomerent)Future value(=0)Highest and best use analysis概念现在价值分期偿还价
29、值，资金率和租金（净收益租金）未来价值最高与最佳使用分析Highest and Best Use Analysis最高与最好分析最高与最好分析The highest and best use of vacant land闲置土地的最高与最佳使用The highest and best use of the improved site已开发土地的最高与最佳原则Highest and Best Use Analysis最高与最好分析最高与最好分析Four criteria:Physical possible:size,shape,terrain,capacity,availability of u
30、tilities etc.Legally permissible:restriction,zoning,building codes,environmental regulations and others laws.Financial feasible:if the project produce an income or return equal to or greater than the amount needed to cover costs.Maximally productive.四项条件：物质上可行：尺寸，形态，地形，容量，服务设施等法律上允许：限制，分区，建筑规范，环境规则和
31、其他法律经济上可行：如果项目产出等于或大于投入最大生产率ApartmentOfficeRetail公寓办公零售Cost of construction$1,021,600$928,000$817,300建设投资Effective gross income有效毛收入$265,000$200,000$180,000Operating expenses -$135,000 -$80,000 -$69,000运营费用 -$130,000$120,000$111,000Assuming a 20 year-year life for the building,then PV=the cost of co
32、nstruction,FV=0,i=1,n=20.Highest and Best Use for a Vacant Lot闲置土地的最高与最佳使用闲置土地的最高与最佳使用For Apartment:NOI to land=NOI of total-building amortization cost$10,000=$130,000-$120,000Site Value:V=R/I=10,000/0.10=$100,000ApartmentOfficeRetailIncome to building 10%$120,000$109,000$96,000Income to site$10,000
33、$11,000$15,000Indicated site value 10%$100,000$110,000$150,000So Retail has the highest value for the siteHighest and Best Use of A Property as Improved房地产更新的最高与最佳原则房地产更新的最高与最佳原则The alternatives are:Renovate the existing stores,spending$20,000Convert the existing space to offices,spending$40,000Demo
34、lish and construct a new building不同方案:更新现存商店，花2万美元 改成办公，花4万拆除，建设新办公楼Highest and Best Use of A Property as Improved房地产更新的最高与最佳原则房地产更新的最高与最佳原则ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNew BlgAcquisition price$200,000$200,000$200,000Renovation cost$20,000$40,0000Construction cost00$700,000Dem
35、olish cost00$30,000Total costs$220,000$240,000$930,000The acquisition price will be allocated 80 percent to improvement and 20 percent to land.PV=building costs,FV=0,i=10,n=estimated economic life.ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct (retail)OfficeNew BlgBuilding cost(80%)$160,000$160,000$0New con
36、struction 20,000 40,000 700,000Total Allocated to$180,000$200,000$700,000BuildingEconomic life 15 yr15 yr20 yrReturn to Building$23,665$26,295$77,118 10%Highest and Best Use of A Property as Improved房地产更新的最高与最佳原则房地产更新的最高与最佳原则ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNew BlgEffective gross
37、income$41,000$47,000$123,000Operating expenses-12,000-16,000 -20,000-Net operating income$29,000$31,000$103,000Return to building 10%-23,665-26,295-77,118-Income to site$5,335$4,705$26,582Adjustment for 10%returnOn cost of land acquisition-4,000-4,000-23,000-Residual income to land as Adjusted resid
38、ual income$1,335$705$3,582Additional land value createdAt 10%capitalization$13,350$7,050$35,820Total land value created(original purchase+additional)$53,350$47,050$265,820Note:$200,000*20%=40,000 for the first two cases.The last case:the total land cost becomes the initial purchase plus the demolish
39、 cost(200,000+30,000=$230,000)Real Estate Market Cycle房地产市场周期房地产市场周期“Unbalance”of demand for and supply of real estate Different market cycles of different real estate marketsValue change in different segment in market cycle房地产市场供求不均衡房地产市场供求不均衡不同房地产市场的不同不同房地产市场的不同周期周期市场周期中不同部分的市场周期中不同部分的价值变化价值变化Mark
40、et Cycle 市场周期市场周期Toronto Real Estate Markets 多伦多房地产市场多伦多房地产市场Summary 总结总结It is very important to understand real estate markets,the development of real estate,and factors(forces and markets)that influence real estate prices and evaluation了解房地产市场，房体产的发展，以及他们的影响因素对房地产评估是非常重要的Forces behind market cycling is too complicated and we still do not understand市场周期背后的力量复杂，我们尚不很清楚