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1、互联网发展趋势探讨互联网发展趋势探讨大纲 趋势 挑战 动向 探讨2趋势3Cloud computing4Mobile Internet5Internet of things6Triple play7Smart grid8Network based battlefield9挑战10IPv4地址耗尽问题11IPv4路由表爆炸问题12年宽带用户、0 0 4-2 1 broadband 、收入、andTraffic(GB)宽带用户（万）宽带接入收入（亿）流量爆炸和经济模型问题2Number0of1 年宽带用户users,income流量增长5000040000traffic宽带流量（GB）47217N
2、umber of broadbandusers(10K)30000Broadband income(10M)219402000010000014202201221307459039461263470322011019464685598473773232004200520062007200820092010201113安全问题14动向15GENI16Internet217IPv4 address depletion18探讨1920IPv6地址分布（1）http:/www.ipv6actnow.org/info/statistics/#alloc21IPv6地址分布（2）http:/ as of
3、04/09/2009CERNET十年来的过渡实践Dual-StackNFSCNETSAVI IETF WG IETF RFC5210TunnelIPv6 over IPv4CERNET-6BoneIPv4CERNET 1500 universities 20M subscribersTunnelIPv4 over IPv6IETF softwire WGRFC5565IPv6 onlyCERNET2 100 universities 1M subscribersTranslationIVIBi-direction StatelessTranslationIETF Behave WG1994199820012004200520062007200825ServiceNetworkUserIPv4/IPv6过渡策略IPv4IPv4 areaSupportIPv4V4 only NetworkSupport IPv4IVITransitionIPv6 areaSupportIPv6(IVI)V6 only NetworkSupport IPv6(IVI)IPv6SupportIPv6(non-IVI)Support IPv6(non-IVI)2728互联网技术的重要优势一、为用户开发创新性应用搭建了开放平台IPv4IPIPv6二、包容和使用几乎所有通信和网络技术