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1、-第 1 页经济学人中英对照America27simproved giant-第 2 页Americas Improved Giant美国巨人又长高了美国巨人又长高了The insurer has done a good job of rehabilitating itself.Can it stand on its ownfeet?保险公司恢复元气的工作做得还不错。它能靠自己站起来吗？保险公司恢复元气的工作做得还不错。它能靠自己站起来吗？AMERICANS are often asked by politicians if they are better off now than they
2、were four years ago.Anyone involved with American International Group(AIG),an insurance company felled by the financialcrisis,can safely answer“yes”to that question.In just four years it has freed itself from a$182 billionbail-out;gone from being publicly owned back to the private sector(the Treasur
3、y sold the last of its stake inDecember);and turned itself into a leaner,simpler business.Now that it has successfully shaken offgovernment ownership,AIGs next task is to prove its worth as a stand-alone,listed company.政客们常常这样问美国民众：相比四年前，现在的生活是不是更好了？任何参与到美国国际集团（AIG，曾于 2008 年金融危机严重受挫的一家保险公司）活动中的人，这个时
4、候都能挺起胸膛回答“是”。公司用了整整四年来摆脱 1820 亿美元的救助款；不再由大众控股重回私人手中（12 月财政部卖掉了手中最后一支 AIG 股）；自身业务也发生变化：更精简、更简易。既然 AIG 摆脱了政府这样一个所有者，那么下一个任务就是要以独立上市公司的身份来为自己正名。That AIG is around at all is remarkable.By piling into what would emerge as the most rotten part of thefinancial system(insuring investors against losses on se
5、curities linked to American subprime mortgages)during the credit bubble,it ended up owing billions of dollars to those holding the other side of its bets.BenBernanke,the Federal Reserves chairman,famously derided AIG as a hedge-fund attached to a large andstable insurance company.AIG 所取成就可以用鹤立鸡群来形容。
6、信贷泡沫期间，AIG 闯入金融系统中最腐朽不堪的行业防止投资者在美国次贷环境下受损失。最终 AIG 竟然得到几十亿美金，这些钱都来自买有 AIG 保险业务股票的股民。美联储主席本伯南克曾公开嘲笑 AIG 就是背靠着一个庞大、稳定的保险公司的一支对冲基金。Todays AIG is different.The buccaneering financial-products unit,whose need for collateral caused thegovernment to intervene in September 2008,is all but shuttered.Many of A
7、IGs prized units have been soldto help finance its rescue,notably Alico and AIA,both non-US life-insurance businesses with brightprospects.An aircraft-leasing arm is in the process of being flogged.今天的 AIG 大有不同。掠夺式的金融产品部门，其对于附属品的需求曾引得政府 2008 年 9 月介入，而现在差不多关停了。为了出资自我救赎，AIG 卖掉了许多有价值的部门，最出名的就是美国人寿保险和美国
8、友邦保险，二者都经营非美国本土的人寿保险业务而且前景光明。出售飞机租赁部门也在洽谈中。The transition back to private ownership has been pretty smooth.Much of the credit for the transformationfalls to Bob Benmosche,a former boss of MetLife,an insurance rival,who was pulled out of a retirementspent cultivating grapes in Croatia to take the rei
9、ns in August 2009.Known for his blunt,speak-your-mind-第 3 页approach(a month into the job,he said he was avoiding“those crazies down in Washington”),he hashelped turn a demoralised group with a radioactive brand into a company with a renewed sense of self.重回私人掌控的过程异常顺利。转换过程大部分信贷任务落在竞争对手美国大都会人寿保险公司的前任
10、老板鲍勃本默切肩上。2009 年 8 月，AIG 将还在克罗地亚享受种葡萄退休生活的鲍勃请出山。以“口直心快”出名的鲍勃（接手一个月，他表示就一直在避免“华盛顿那些蠢货情绪低落”），他帮助士气低落、附带着一个放射性品牌的小组重塑自我意识并且组建公司。The happy ending to this corporate fairy tale is still some years away,however.What remains of AIG ishardly a world-beating company.Return on equity,at 5%,is just about the lo
11、west of its American peers.Margins are lousy at both the general-insurance division(known as property-casualty,which insures homes,cars and the like)and the life-insurance bit(which offers bank-like savings products).不过，公司童话般的快乐结局是很久以前的事了。AIG 当务之急要解决的是拯救跌出世界一流团队的公司。股本收益率在 5%，几乎是全行业最低水平。无论是一般性保险（一般为财
12、险，包括房屋险、车险，等等类似险种），还是人寿险（提供类似于银行储蓄利息），盈利情况都是一塌糊涂。Mr Benmosche claims AIG now has the right structure and positioning to thrive.“We had to cut somebranches off the tree,but the tree is still there and its a big trunk,”he says.Even after the cuts,AIG hassome 62,000 staff(down from 116,000)in 90 countr
13、ies.Despite the wild swings of the recent past,it is stillAmericas largest insurer by market capitalisation(see chart).本默切宣布 AIG 如今结构良好、定位准确，已经做好蓬勃发展的准备。“我们不得不像园丁一样剪掉一些枝丫，但是树还在，树干仍然粗壮。”他说道。即使精简裁员之后，AIG 仍在 90 多个国家有6.2 万名员工（之前为 11.6 万）。抛开近几年公司剧烈震动不谈，就市值而言（见图表）AIG 仍是美国最大的保险公司。With less management time
14、spent fire-fighting and negotiating with politicians,more attention is beinglavished on the nuts and bolts of running each unit.The goal is to reach a 10%return on equity by 2015,thus matching its rivals.Mr Benmosche relishes detailing the humdrum measures AIG is taking to get there:consolidating da
15、ta centres to cut costs,tweaking the product mix towards more profitable lines,offeringmore tailored pricing by crunching customer data more intelligently.This is a world away from dabbling incredit derivatives,he implies.没有把太多管理时间花在同政客斗嘴和协条上面，而是集中精力做好每个部门细节之处。公司目标是在 2015 年时资本回报率可达到 10%，因此也就是同竞争对手水平
16、相当。本默切津津有味地细化谈及 AIG 正在向目标前进的方法：整合数据中心以降低成本，调整产品结构向利润更大的方向发展，通过更智能地处理客户数据信息从而提出更具针对性的价格。他暗示说，这是一个远离信贷衍生品的世界。Both sides of AIGs business need nourishing.The general-insurance arm currently pays out slightly morein claims than it receives in premiums,once costs are factored in.Profits come from investi
17、ng the cash floatit holds to pay out claims as they arise,which is not the most lucrative business when interest rates(andthus returns)are at rock bottom.Chronic underinvestment in IT systems has left it trailing rivalsstoriesabound of AIG units bidding against each other for contracts.Bad luck hasn
18、t helped.Hurricane Sandy willhave dented fourth-quarter profits to the tune of$2 billion before tax,the most of any American insurer(italso flooded AIGs Wall Street offices).-第 4 页AIG 两方面业务都需要投资。成本一旦考虑进来，那么一般性保险部分近期索赔支出便会稍大于其保险费收入数额。利润来源于投资浮存资金，公司用这笔资金支付需要理赔的保险金。当利率（当然还有回报率）跌落谷底时，保险业也就称不上是最有利可图的行业了。
19、信息技术领域长期投资不足导致步了对手后尘AIG 各部门之间为同一份合同竞标的报道比比皆是。坏运气理应不会帮忙。飓风桑迪破坏了第四个季度的税前总额可达 20 亿美元的利润利润超过美国所有的保险公司（桑迪还淹了 AIG 在华尔街的办事处）。The good news is that insurance prices in America are rising,and that AIGs higher-margin internationalfranchise(despite asset disposals,half of the firms general-insurance sales are
20、made abroad)is growingfast.More controversially,the company is also cutting reinsurance coverage,which is how insurers offloadtheir own risks.This will juice margins but could lead to AIG shouldering larger one-off losses.好消息是美国投保费用在上升，而且 AIG 国际上获利颇丰得特许经销店（尽管出让资产，但是公司一般性保险业务有一半是在国外实现的）也在快速发展。更具争议的是公
21、司砍掉了再保险业务范围，这也是现在保险公司规避风险的一般做法。虽然可以挤出一些利润来，但是也会让 AIG 承受更多的永久性损失。The impact of low interest rates is even greater for its life-insurance and retirement-planning business,which makes up the other half of the groups earnings.Many of its life products offer customers fixedreturns on premiums paid.AIG ha
22、s limited flexibility to lower the rates it extended in frothier times.Incommon with rivals,it is now changing its focus towards products which are less sensitive to interest rates.But lower returns and a still-soft economy also has the effect of dampening interest from consumers,whoappear keener to
23、 squirrel away money into savings products when they feel rich.Profits in this area of thebusiness are expected to be flat for the foreseeable future.低利润率之于人寿保险和退休计划业务影响更大了，同理填补了其他部门利润收益。许多人寿部门推出产品可以给予客户固定保险金回报。AIG 限制降低在泡沫时期延伸后利率的灵活度。与竞争对手相同的是，公司现在将自身的关注点转向对利率并不敏感的产品。但是更低的回报和仍显疲态的经济会产生影响抑制消费者利益，而此时消
24、费者会把钱转而投向他们认为能获利的储蓄产品。在未来可以预见情况下，这方面业务利润仍将不景气。Bits of AIG continue to baffle outsiders.It still holds$158 billion of credit derivatives on its books,a smallslice of its pre-crisis$1.8 trillion portfolio but still nearly three times its market capitalisation.The firm alsoholds more sub-investment-gra
25、de securities on its balance-sheet than any of its life-insurance rivals,according to J.P.Morgan.Much of this exposure comes from mortgage-backed securities taken over by thegovernment during the crisis and subsequently repurchased by AIG.AIG 一些产品持续让外行人迷惑不解。账目上看来它仍然握有 1580 亿美元的信用衍生品，和一小组金融危机前且仍然是几乎三
26、倍于其市值 1.8 万亿美元组合产品。而且据 JP 摩根大通称，AIG 公司比任何一家竞争对手在各自的资产负债表上都更多的控有次投资级债券。大部分内幕曝光是因为金融危机时期政府买入抵押贷款支持证券，随后由 AIG 买回。“We have a detailed understanding of these assets,”says Mr Benmosche.Maybe so.His most obvioussuccessor(Mr Benmosche is 68 years old and was diagnosed in 2010 with an unspecified cancer)is P
27、eterHancock,who now heads the general-insurance division but is famed in financial circles for havingpioneered credit derivatives at J.P.Morgan two decades ago.But however well AIG understands itself,-第 5 页many analysts quietly admit that parts of the groups finances are still hazy to them.“对于这些资产我们
28、都十分了解，”本默切说。或许就像他说的一样吧。本默切头号继承人（本默切先生今年 68 岁，2002 年诊断出患有新型癌症）是彼得汉考克。彼得现在是一般性保险业务领域的领头人；20 年前金融危机时期在 JP 摩根大通，他采用金融衍生品而出名。不过，无论 AIG 对自身了解得如何透彻，许多分析家私底下都认为 AIG 对于部分金融业务还是进行着模糊化处理。Investors are nonetheless bullish on the shares.That is partly because they trade at just over half AIGsbook value,whereas o
29、ther insurers are trading closer to or above book value.Investors like the regularrecent payouts of excess cash to shareholders,although the firms focus is now expected to be on payingdown debt to maintain its A-credit rating.Huge accounting losses during the crisis will lower AIGs tax billfor the n
30、ext few years,bolstering profits.And although some fret about a tighter regulatory regime,with theFed likely to impose bank-like“stress tests”from 2014,others see stricter supervisory oversight as areassuring plus given the groups recent history.然而，投资者仍看好 AIG 股票。这也是为什么他们仅仅在超过 AIG 账面价值一半做交易的部分原因；然而，其
31、他保险公司做交易一般都是接近账面价值或超出。近来投资者喜欢定期将多出的现金支付给股东，尽管公司致力于偿还债务以期维持 A 级信誉度。由于金融危机期间大量的账目流失，在未来几年里 AIG 税单数额会减少，收入会增加。与此同时，尽管一些人担心更严格的监管制度，2014年起美联储似乎会强迫银行相关行业进行“压力测试”。鉴于公司近来发展历程出台更严格的监管制度，但是其他公司看待新制度倒像是吃了一颗定心丸。AIG certainly has a new-found air of confidence.A recent ad campaign featured its employees thanking
32、America for the bail-out,implying that this unpleasant episode is now firmly in its past.The firm hasreverted to selling general insurance under the AIG brand,having opted for the generic“Chartis”at theheight of the crisis.By any measure,this has been a remarkable comeback.But it will be sealed only
33、 whenthe insurance company that those Washington crazies deemed fit to salvage shows it can compete withrivals who did not benefit from taxpayer largesse.信心之源，肯定是因为 AIG 找到新的发展空间。近来广告活动的特色就是员工感谢政府的紧急救助，暗示出那一段不愉快的插曲现在的确已成为历史了。公司转变经营策略：以 AIG 的品牌销售一般性保险产品，并且以金融危机下的危机感选择“美亚保险”。无论以什么样的衡量标准，这都是一个引人关注的强势回归。但是，只有华盛顿那些蠢货认为可以救助的保险公司显示出能与那些没有从纳税人慷慨之下获利的对手抗衡的能力时，AIG 回归才能成为板上钉钉的事。