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1、编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第68页 共66页飞轮电池生产计划的制定 市场需求预测-4 实际产品的生产工艺路线分析-10 生产方式的经济分析和比较-11 制定综合生产计划-13 生产能力的粗平衡-14 制定主生产计划-14 制定MRP,CRP-14 生产能力的精平衡-39 零件工序卡编制-39 产品装配工序卡编制-411.市场需求预测（Market forecast）实验数据month1month2month3month4month5month6month7month8month9month10month11month12year9182421102027
2、2311222926quarter？根据给出的数据，选择一种模型来预测下一年的市场需求量，属于长期预。从给出的数据分析可以得出，每年的同一月份市场需求量比较接近，而同一年份的不同月份之间存在较大的差异，市场需求量与时间季节因素有关。方案一：Seasonalized Time Seiries Regression的模型来进行市场预测。预测结果如下： Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%) * SEASONALIZED TIME SERIES REGRESSION FORECASTING *-PROBLEM NAME: Untitled- FORECAST Sales -
3、 ABSOLUTE YEAR MONTHACTUAL REGRESSION SEASONALIZED ERROR 1 1 9.000 17.533 8.766 0.234 1 2 18.000 17.982 17.982 0.018 1 3 24.000 18.430 24.573 0.573 1 4 21.000 18.879 22.025 1.025 1 5 10.000 19.327 9.664 0.336 1 6 20.000 19.776 19.776 0.224 1 7 27.000 20.224 26.966 0.034 1 8 23.000 20.673 24.118 1.11
4、8 1 9 11.000 21.121 10.561 0.439 1 10 22.000 21.570 21.570 0.430 1 11 29.000 22.018 29.358 0.358 1 12 26.000 22.467 26.212 0.212- Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%) YEAR MONTH FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 2 1 11.458 10.910 12.006 2 2 23.364 22.268 24.460 2 3 31.750 30.289 33.212 2 4 28.305 27.026
5、29.584REGRESSION EQUATION: Y = a + bX WHERE: Y = Sales X = TIME PERIOD a = 17.0844 b = 0.4486FORECAST = Y * SEASONAL INDEX (i)R = 0.942R-SQUARE = 0.8872MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 0.333MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.283MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERI
6、ODS = -0.131STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 0.605SEASONAL INDEX (1) = 0.500SEASONAL INDEX (2) = 1.000SEASONAL INDEX (3) = 1.333SEASONAL INDEX (4) = 1.167由决定系数R=0.942和相关系数R2=0.8872，预测结果准确性很高。预测的误差在合理的范围内，预测结果如下：month1month2month3month4year212243228方案二：TIME SERIES REGRESSION 模型进行预测预测结果如下： Sales CONFI
7、DENCE INTERVAL ( 90%)* TIME SERIES REGRESSION FORECASTING *-PROBLEM NAME: Untitled- Sales Sales ABSOLUTE PERIOD ACTUAL FORECAST ERROR 1 9.000 14.846 5.846 2 18.000 15.783 2.217 3 24.000 16.720 7.280 4 21.000 17.657 3.343 5 10.000 18.594 8.594 6 20.000 19.531 0.469 7 27.000 20.469 6.531 8 23.000 21.4
8、06 1.594 9 11.000 22.343 11.343 10 22.000 23.280 1.280 11 29.000 24.217 4.783 12 26.000 25.154 0.846- Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%) PERIOD FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 13 26.091 14.974 37.208 14 27.028 15.911 38.145 15 27.965 16.848 39.082 16 28.902 17.785 40.019REGRESSION EQUATION: Y = a + b
9、X WHERE: Y = Sales X = TIME PERIOD a = 13.9091 b = 0.9371R = 0.500R-SQUARE = 0.2501MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 2.303MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 31.369MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.0STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 6.1354误差分析：R = 0.500 R-SQU
10、ARE = 0.2501MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 2.303MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 31.369MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.0STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 6.1354从预测结果可以看出这种预测方法与过去的数据相差很大，因此，两种方法相比较，第一种预测误差精度更高误差更小，所以我采取第一种预测方法。2. 实际产品的生产工艺路线分析(Product
11、Process Analysis)零件代号零件名称零件材料零件工艺过程生产提前期12345MLF-03外壳Q235-A锻造车削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-05外转子电机套筒Q235-A锻造焊接车削钻孔、扩孔2MLF-11底板Q235-A锻造车削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-12电器定位板铝合金铸造车削铣削钻孔、扩孔2MLF-07-03电磁铁外侧夹紧发兰铝合金铸造车削精车钻孔、扩孔线切割2MLF-07-04电磁铁铁芯DW314-50锻造1MLF-07-05电磁铁内侧夹紧发兰铝合金铸造车削精铣钻孔、扩孔精车2MLF-07-06电磁铁夹紧装置铝合金铸造铣削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-09-01盘片45铸造热处理车削精车钻孔、
12、扩孔2MLF-09-02磁环电工纯铁模锻车削铣削1MLF-09-03压环45铸造车削铣削钻孔、扩孔23.生产方式的经济分析与比较(Alternative Plans Comparison)Machine capacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemble capacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每月最多生产28台。首先,计算计划一年雇用、解雇的工人数量和在这一年的平均库存。1234567Aggregate planMonthAggregate demandPanned outputsWorkers requiredWo
13、rkers hiredWorkers laid offLevel capacity with inventory1122472018224247200332247200429247200Matching demand11212360542242472360332328412042929840089101112Inventory adding or subtraction Beginning inventoryEnding inventoryAverage inventory per monthAverage inventory per year1210221616.8750222222(8)2
14、21418(5)14911.500000000000000000然后,计算两种方案的成本： 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Aggregate planTotal annual number of workers hiredTotal annual number of workers laid offAverage annual inventoryAnnual hiring and layoff costAnnual inventory carrying costTotal annual subtraction costTotal annual incremental operating costL
15、evel capacity01816.87510805332.506412.5Matching demand4854037200(4+1)*180012720备注：（4）=（1）*10+（2）*60；（5）=（3）*4*79：（7）=（4）+（5）+（6）在matching demand生产计划中第三月和第四月的需求量超过了本厂的最大生产能力，如若要满足要求需要采用外协或者加班的方式解决。如果采用外协第三月份有32-28=4台需要外协，第四月份有29-28=1台需要外协。总的Cost=（4+1）*1800=9000再考虑到工人工资，总的费用如下：Cost of level capacity=6
16、412.5+72*4*2*200=121612.5Cost of matching demand=12720+(36+72+84+84)*2*200=123120相差的费用Cost of matching demand- Cost of level capacity =123120-121612.5=1507.5。 Level capacity比Matching demand的花费更少。如果采用加班加班：每台成本是600*2.5=1500外协：每台是1800因为对于matching demand 中第三月和第四月共缺5台，所以两者共相差（1800-1500）*5=1500通过外协和加班两者的比
17、较可以看出，两者的费用差不多，但考虑到Level capacity的生产方式比Matching demand生产方式更加稳定； Level capacity生产方式在解雇和招聘工人方要比Matching demand的变动更小，有利于和工会之间关系的维持；在Level capacity生产方式中有8台的安全库存可以保证在市场变动时满足市场需求。综合以上因素，我选择Level capacity生产方式。4.制定综合生产计划(Aggregate Planning)1234567Aggregate planMonthAggregate demandPanned outputsWorkers requ
18、iredWorkers hiredWorkers laid offLevel capacity with inventory11224720182242472003322472004292472005.生产能力粗平衡(Rough-Cut Capacity Planning)生产能力粗平衡Month final assembly hours1234Production24242424Final assembly hours4200420042004200Load(hours)4200420042004200Capacity(hours)4900490049004900由上表可知生产能力满足要求，
19、不需要加班或者外协。6制定主生产计划(Master Production Schedule) 主生产计划Month 1Month 2Month 3Month 4周数1234123412341234总需求量12243229期初库存10222214需求数量6666期末库存22221497.1 MRP7制定MRP,CRP(Material Requirement Planning,Capacity Requirement Planning)012数量MLF-001MLF-031MLF-051MLF-071MLF-07-033MLF-07-043MLF-07-053MLF-07-066MLF-091M
20、LF-09-011MLF-09-021MLF-09-031MLF-111MLF-121各个零件选择用Lot For Lot的生产方式，用软件POM计算可得： * MATERIALS REQUIREMENTS PLANNING (MRP) *=PROBLEM NAME: Untitled=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size00 0 0 10 8 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6
21、6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22、0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size03 1 1 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0
23、0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 6* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6
24、 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 0* RUSH ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size05 1 2 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 16 6 6 6 6 6 6 6* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0