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1、 经营分析与估值克雷沙G.帕利普 保罗M.希利摘自书籍“Business Analysis and Valuation”第五版第一章节1.简介本章的目的是勾勒出一个全面的财务报表分析框架。因为财务报表提供给公共企业经济活动最广泛使用的数据，投资者和其他利益相关者依靠财务报告评估计划企业和管理绩效率。各种各样的问题可以通过财务状况与经营分析解决，如下面的示例所示：一位证券分析师可能会对问：“我的公司有多好？这家公司是否符合我的期望？如果没有，为什么不呢？鉴于我对公司当前和未来业绩的评估，该公司的股票价值是多少？”一位信贷员可能需要问：“这家公司贷款给这家公司有什么贷款？公司管理其流动性如何？公司
2、的经营风险是什么？公司的融资和股利政策所产生的附加风险是什么？“一位管理顾问可能会问：“公司经营的行业结构是什么？该策略通过在工业各个企业追求的是什么？不同企业在行业中的相对表现是什么？”公司经理可能会问：“我的公司是正确的估值的投资者吗？是我们在通信程序中有足够的投资者来促进这一过程？”财务报表分析是一项有价值的活动，当管理者在一个公司的战略和各种体制因素完成后，他们不可能完全披露这些信息。在这一设置中，外部分析师试图通过分析财务报表数据来创建“中端信息”，从而获得有价值的关于该公司目前业绩和未来前景的展望。了解财务报表分析所做的贡献，这是很重要的理解在资本市场的运作，财务报告的作用，形成财
3、务报表制度的力量。因此，我们首先简要说明这些力量，然后我们讨论的步骤，分析师必须执行，以提取信息的财务报表，并提供有价值的预测。2.从经营活动到财务报表企业管理者负责从公司的环境中获取物理和财务资源，并利用它们为公司的投资者创造价值。当公司在资本成本的超额投资时，就创造了价值。管理者制定经营战略，实现这一目标，并通过业务活动实施。企业的经营活动受其经济环境和经营战略的影响。经济环境包括企业的产业、投入和产出的市场，以与公司经营的规章制度。公司的业务战略决定企业如何定位自己的环境中获得竞争优势。2.1会计制度特点1：权责发生制会计企业财务报告的基本特征之一是权责发生制，它们是以权责发生制而不是现
4、金会计制备的。不像现金会计，权责发生制会计与经济交流活动和实际收付现金相关的成本和效益的记录之间的区别。净收益是应计制会计下的主要周期性业绩指标。计算净收入，生态影响的经济交易记录的基础上的预期，并不一定是实际的现金支付。预期的现金收入交付的产品或服务被确认为收入，和预期的现金流出与这些收入被确认为费用。会计的必要性来自于投资者对定期财务报告的需求。因为企业进行经济交易，在持续的基础上，在报告期导致了一个有趣的基本测量问题，结束时的会计帐簿任意闭合。因为现金会计报告的不完整性，在生态经济带来的后果所进行的交易。在一定时期，权责发生制会计的目的是提供一个公司的周期性表现更完整的信息。2.2会计制
5、度特点2：会计准则和审计采用权责发生制会计是在许多重要的复杂性企业财务报告的中心。由于权责发生制会计处理当前事件的预期未来现金的后果，它是主观的，依赖于各种假设条件。谁应该负责制定这些假设条件负主要责任？一个公司的管理者被赋予作出适当的估计和假设编制财务报表的任务，因为他们有亲密的了解他们公司的业务优势。经理授予的会计自由裁量权可能是有价值的，因为它反映了财务报表中的部信息。然而，由于投资者认为利润作为衡量管理者的绩效，管理者有动机利用他们的会计自由裁量权歪曲报道利润的假设、偏见。另外，在公司部和外部之间的合同中使用的会计数字提供了另一种管理操作的会计数字的动机。在来管理扭曲了财务会计资料，使
6、他们对前部财务报表的使用者不值钱。因此，财务报告的决定，企业管理者的代表团有成本和收益。许多会计惯例已经形成，以确保管理者使用他们的会计灵活性来概括他们对公司经营活动的知识，而不是为了自我服务的目的而伪装现实。例如，可测性和稳健性惯例和会计反应担心扭曲人学生可能偏向乐观。这两个公约都试图限制管理者对悲观偏见的乐观偏见。会计准则（公认会计原则），由财务会计标准委员会（FASB）发布和类似的标准设定在其他国家机构，也限制了潜在的扭曲，管理者可以将报告数字。统一会计准则的尝试，以降低管理者的能力，以不同的方式记录类似的经济交易，无论是随着时间的推移或跨公司。提高均匀性的会计准则，然而，是减少管理者反
7、映他们公司的财务报表差异真正的业务灵活性。严格的会计准则对经济交易的最佳效果，其会计处理不依赖于管理者的专有信息。然而，当有重大的商业判断参与评估交易的经济后果，严格的标准，防止经理利用自己的业务知识上会不正常。此外，如果会计准则过于僵化，他们可能会促使管理者花费经济资源来调整业务交易，以达到预期的会计结果。审计，广义地定义为一个对上报的财务报表的人比其他人的完整性验证，确保管理人员利用会计规则和惯例一致，随着时间的推移，和他们的会计估计是合理的。因此，审计提高会计数据的质量。第三方审计也可能会降低财务报告的质量，因为它限制了会计规则和惯例的发展随着时间的推移。FASB认为审计意见在标准制定过
8、程中，核数师很可能会反对会计准则的生产数据，这是很难进行审计的，即使拟议的规则为投资者提供相关信息。其中会计纠纷经理、审计师的法律环境，投资者也可以在裁决报告数据质量有显著的影响。诉讼的威胁和惩罚的有益效果，证明了信息披露的准确性。然而，一个重要的法律责任的潜力还有可能阻碍管理人员和审计人员从支持会计建议重新进行风险预测，如前瞻性信息披露。2.3会计制度特点3：管理者的报告策略由于限制管理者对会计数据失真的能力增加的机制，并不是最优的利用会计规则来完全消除管理上的灵活性。因此，现实世界的会计系统给管理者留下相当大的空间来影响财务报表数据。一个公司的报告策略，即管理者使用他们的会计判断的方式，对
9、公司的财务报表有重要影响。企业管理者可以选择的会计和披露政策，使其更或不难的外部用户的财务报告，了解他们的业务的真实经济情况。会计规则往往提供了一套广泛的替代品，管理者可以选择。此外，管理者委托制定一系列的估计，在实施这些会计政策。会计法规通常规定最低披露要求，但他们不限制经理提供额外的披露。一个卓越的披露策略将使管理者能够将潜在的商业现实与外部投资者沟通。企业披露战略的一个重要约束是产品市场的竞争态势。专有信息的披露有关业务策略信息和预期的经济后果可能会伤害公司的竞争地位。受此约束，管理者可以利用财务报表提供的评估公司的真正的生态经济业绩对投资者有用的信息。管理者也可以利用财务报告策略操纵投
10、资者的感知。使用自由裁量权授予他们，管理者可以使投资者难以与时识别性能差。例如，管理者可以选择交流计数的政策和估计，以提供一个乐观的评估公司的真实表现。他们也可以让投资者了解真实的性能，通过控制信息自愿披露程度，性能高。在这种程度上的财务报表信息对潜在的商业性现实随公司在某公司的时间。这种变化在交流计数的质量提供了一个重要的机会和挑战。3.从财务报表的业务分析由于管理者的部知识是会计数据的价值和失真的来源，因此财务报表的外部使用者很难区分真实的信息和失真。无法撤消会计失真，投资者可能“折扣”一个公司的会计业绩。在这样做时，他们做了一个概率评估的程度，一个公司的报告数字反映经济现实。因此，投资者
11、只能对单个企业的绩效进行不精确的评估。金融信息中介可以添加通过改善投资因素的理解公司的目前的业绩和未来前景价值。有效的财务报表分析是有价值的，因为它试图在管理者的部信息，从公共财务报表数据。因为中介机构没有直接或完全访问这些信息，他们依靠他们的知识，该公司的行业与其竞争策略，以解释财务报表。成功的中介机构至少有一个很好的理解，对行业经济的公司的经理，并合理地了解公司的竞争战略。尽管外界分析人士与公司的相关管理者的信息劣势，他们更能客观评价其经济后果公司的投资管理和经营决策。我们需要利用财务报表来完成四个关键步骤：（1）企业战略分析、（2）会计分析、（3）财务分析和（4）前景分析。3.1分析步骤
12、一：战略分析企业战略分析的目的是确定关键利润驱动程序和业务风险，并在一个定性的水平评估公司的利润潜力。业务战略分析涉与到一个公司的行业分析和建立一个可持续的竞争优势的战略。这种定性分析是一个重要的第一步，因为它使分析师能够更好地对以后的会计和财务分析框架进行分析。考试简单，识别关键成功因素和关键业务风险的关键会计政策允许的识别。评价一个企业的竞争战略有利于评价评估是否当前的盈利能力是可持续的。最后，业务分析使分析师能够做出合理的假设，在预测公司的未来表现。3.2分析步骤二：会计分析会计分析的目的是评估一个公司的会计捕捉到的基本业务的真实程度。通过确定有的灵活性，并通过评估公司的会计政策的恰当性
13、和估计，分析师可以评估在一个公司的会计数字失真的程度。在财务分析中的另一个重要的步骤是“撤销”任何会计系统通过重铸公司会计数据创建公正的会计数据。健全的会计分析，提高了结论的可靠性从财务分析系统，为下一步的财务报表分析。3.3分析步骤三：财务分析财务分析的目的是利用财务数据来评估一个公司的当前和过去的财务状况和评估其可持续性。与财务分析相关的重要技能。首先，分析应是系统和有效的。其次，分析应允许分析师使用财务数据，探讨业务问题。比率分析和现金流分析是最常用的金融工具。比率分析的重点是企业的产品市场表现和财务政策的评价；现金流量分析公司的变现能力和财务弹性。3.4分析步骤四：前景分析前景分析，专
14、注于预测公司的未来，是业务分析的最后一步。前瞻性分析中常用的技术是财务报表预测和估值。这些工具允许从业务分析，研究会计分析和财务分析的合成，从而在前期分析出关于公司的未来。虽然公司的价值是其未来现金流性能的功能，它也有可能评估公司的价值基础上的公司目前的账面价值的股票，其未来的回报率（净资产收益率）和增长。战略分析、会计分析和财务分析，在这里讨论的框架的前三个步骤，提供一个公司的在价值估算前良好的基础。战略分析，除了有利的会计和财务分析，也有助于评估潜在的变化，企业的竞争优势和他们对公司未来的净资产收益率和增长的影响。会计分析提供了一个公司的现行账面价值和净资产收益率的无偏估计。财务分析让你获
15、得了一个深入了解什么推动了公司目前的资产收益率。从一个健全的业务分析的预测是有用的各种当事人，可以应用在不同的环境中。分析的确切性质将取决于上下文。我们将探讨包括证券分析、信用评估的情况下，兼并和收购，债务和股利政策评估，评估公司率通信策略。上面描述的四个分析步骤是有用的，在每一个这些上下文中。然而，适当地使用这些工具，需要熟悉的经济理论和体制因素相关的背景。4.总结 财务报表提供的公共企业生态经济活动的最广泛使用的数据；投资者和其他利益相关者依靠他们来评估计划与企业和企业管理者绩效。在财务报表中的权责发生制会计数据是嘈杂的，和没有经验的投资者可以评估企业绩效不仅是准确的。财务分析师谁理解管理
16、者的披露策略有机会从公开数据中创建部信息，他们发挥了宝贵的作用，使外部各方评估公司的当前和未来的表现。本章概述了对财务状况与经营分析的框架，使用的四个关键步骤：企业战略分析、会计分析、财务分析和前景分析。本书中的其余章节详细描述了这些步骤，并讨论了它们如何在各种业务环境中使用。附：Business Analysis and Valuation KG Palepu，PM HealyFrom the literature of the first chapter of the Fifth Edition “Business Analysis and Valuation”一、中小企业在我国经济发展中
17、的重要地位和作用中小企业在我国社会经济发展中始终具有十分重要的地位和作用。1. IntroductionThe purpose of this chapter is to outline a comprehensive framework for financial statement analysis. Because financial statements provide the most widely available data on public corporations economic activities, investors and other stake- holders
18、 rely on financial reports to assess the plans and performance of firms and corpo- rate managers.A variety of questions can be addressed by business analysis using financial state- ments, as shown in the following examples:A security analyst may be interested in asking: “How well is the firm I am fo
19、llow- ing performing? Did the firm meet my performance expectations? If not, why not? What is the value of the firms stock given my assessment of the firms current and future performance?”A loan officer may need to ask: “What is the credit risk involved in lending a certain amount of money to this f
20、irm? How well is the firm managing its liquidity and sol- vency? What is the firms business risk? What is the additional risk created by the firms financing and dividend policies?”A management consultant might ask: “What is the structure of the industry in which the firm is operating? What are the s
21、trategies pursued by various players in the in- dustry? What is the relative performance of different firms in the industry?”A corporate manager may ask: “Is my firm properly valued by investors? Is our in- vestor communication program adequate to facilitate this process?”Financial statement analysi
22、s is a valuable activity when managers have complete in- formation on a firms strategies and a variety of institutional factors make it unlikely that they fully disclose this information. In this setting, outside analysts attempt to create “in- side information” from analyzing financial statement da
23、ta, thereby gaining valuable in- sights about the firms current performance and future prospects.To understand the contribution that financial statement analysis can make, it is im- portant to understand the role of financial reporting in the functioning of capital markets and the institutional forc
24、es that shape financial statements. Therefore, we present first a brief description of these forces; then we discuss the steps that an analyst must perform to extract information from financial statements and provide valuable forecasts.2.From business activities to financial statementsCorporate mana
25、gers are responsible for acquiring physical and financial resources from the firms environment and using them to create value for the firms investors. Value is created when the firm earns a return on its investment in excess of the cost of capital. Managers formulate business strategies to achieve t
26、his goal, and they implement them through business activities. A firms business activities are influenced by its economic environment and its own business strategy. The economic environment includes the firms industry, its input and output markets, and the regulations under which the firm operates.
27、The firms business strategy determines how the firm positions itself in its en- vironment to achieve a competitive advantage.2.1 Accounting System Feature 1: Accrual AccountingOne of the fundamental features of corporate financial reports is that they are prepared using accrual rather than cash acco
28、unting. Unlike cash accounting, accrual accounting distinguishes between the recording of costs and benefits associated with economic ac- tivities and the actual payment and receipt of cash. Net income is the primary periodic performance index under accrual accounting. To compute net income, the eff
29、ects of eco- nomic transactions are recorded on the basis of expected, not necessarily actual, cash re- ceipts and payments. Expected cash receipts from the delivery of products or services are recognized as revenues, and expected cash outflows associated with these revenues are recognized as expens
30、es.The need for accrual accounting arises from investors demand for financial reports on a periodic basis. Because firms undertake economic transactions on a continual basis, the arbitrary closing of accounting books at the end of a reporting period leads to a fun- damental measurement problem. Sinc
31、e cash accounting does not report the full eco- nomic consequence of the transactions undertaken in a given period, accrual accounting is designed to provide more complete information on a firms periodic performance.2.2 Accounting System Feature 2: Accounting Standards and AuditingThe use of accrual
32、 accounting lies at the center of many important complexities in cor- porate financial reporting. Because accrual accounting deals with expectations of future cash consequences of current events, it is subjective and relies on a variety of assump- tions. Who should be charged with the primary respon
33、sibility of making these assump- tions? A firms managers are entrusted with the task of making the appropriate estimates and assumptions to prepare the financial statements because they have intimate knowl- edge of their firms business.The accounting discretion granted to managers is potentially val
34、uable because it al- lows them to reflect inside information in reported financial statements. However, since investors view profits as a measure of managers performance, managers have incentives to use their accounting discretion to distort reported profits by making biased assump- tions. Further,
35、the use of accounting numbers in contracts between the firm and outsiders provides another motivation for management manipulation of accounting numbers. In- come management distorts financial accounting data, making them less valuable to ex- ternal users of financial statements. Therefore, the deleg
36、ation of financial reporting decisions to corporate managers has both costs and benefits.A number of accounting conventions have evolved to ensure that managers use their accounting flexibility to summarize their knowledge of the firms business activities, and not to disguise reality for self-servin
37、g purposes. For example, the measurability and con- servatism conventions are accounting responses to concerns about distortions from man- agers potentially optimistic bias. Both these conventions attempt to limit managers optimistic bias by imposing their own pessimistic bias.Accounting standards (
38、Generally Accepted Accounting Principles), promulgated by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and similar standard-setting bodies in other countries, also limit potential distortions that managers can introduce into reported numbers. Uniform accounting standards attempt to reduce manager
39、s ability to record similar economic transactions in dissimilar ways, either over time or across firms.Increased uniformity from accounting standards, however, comes at the expense of reduced flexibility for managers to reflect genuine business differences in their firms fi- nancial statements. Rigi
40、d accounting standards work best for economic transactions whose accounting treatment is not predicated on managers proprietary information. However, when there is significant business judgment involved in assessing a transac- tions economic consequences, rigid standards which prevent managers from
41、using their superior business knowledge would be dysfunctional. Further, if accounting standards are too rigid, they may induce managers to expend economic resources to restructure business transactions to achieve a desired accounting result.Auditing, broadly defined as a verification of the integri
42、ty of the reported financial statements by someone other than the preparer, ensures that managers use accounting rules and conventions consistently over time, and that their accounting estimates are rea- sonable. Therefore, auditing improves the quality of accounting data.Third-party auditing may al
43、so reduce the quality of financial reporting because it constrains the kind of accounting rules and conventions that evolve over time. For ex- ample, the FASB considers the views of auditors in the standard-setting process. Auditors are likely to argue against accounting standards producing numbers
44、that are difficult to audit, even if the proposed rules produce relevant information for investors.The legal environment in which accounting disputes between managers, auditors, and investors are adjudicated can also have a significant effect on the quality of reported numbers. The threat of lawsuit
45、s and resulting penalties have the beneficial effect of im- proving the accuracy of disclosure. However, the potential for a significant legal liability might also discourage managers and auditors from supporting accounting proposals re- quiring risky forecasts, such as forward-looking disclosures.2
46、.3 Accounting System Feature 3: Managers Reporting StrategyBecause the mechanisms that limit managers ability to distort accounting data add noise, it is not optimal to use accounting regulation to eliminate managerial flexibility completely. Therefore, real-world accounting systems leave considerab
47、le room for managers to influence financial statement data. A firms reporting strategy, that is, the manner in which managers use their accounting discretion, has an important influence on the firms financial statements.Corporate managers can choose accounting and disclosure policies that make it mo
48、re or less difficult for external users of financial reports to understand the true economic picture of their businesses. Accounting rules often provide a broad set of alternatives from which managers can choose. Further, managers are entrusted with making a range of estimates in implementing these
49、accounting policies. Accounting regulations usually prescribe minimum disclosure requirements, but they do not restrict managers from vol- untarily providing additional disclosures.A superior disclosure strategy will enable managers to communicate the underlying business reality to outside investors. One important constraint on a