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1、2 Think:Act SustainaramaPrioritizeBEsustainabilityOur world is changing- businesses need to follow suitP. 5| UnderstandalternativesYou cant predict the future, but you can reduce its complexityAnticipateP. 10| opportunitigWhat can yourcompany do to shapea better normal?P. 22Four scenarios for 2050DR
2、IVINGPlanned new world山 9N4HWm u 611PpSustainarama Think:Act 11 mw4- RegulatorsLL.0 Al-SN 山 1N_*0008 f xoDqSociety FORCE4Everyone for themselves12 Think:Act SustainaramaScenario #1:Planned new worldIN THE PLANNED NEW WORLDn SCENARIO, regulators are the main driving force and the intensity of change
3、involves breaking new ground. In this scenario, by 2050 regulators have enforced strong policies, plans and laws that society and companies must obey with non-compliance heavily sanctioned. The system has been disrupted and redeftned. Being sustainable is no longer a choice, it is required by law.In
4、 this scenario, major regulators around the globe will have started in the 2020s enforcing changes aimed at achieving climate goals and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The climate catastrophe will have been averted, global warming limited to just 1.5 and global poverty reduc
5、ed. We are now living in what could almost be described as a sort of state communism with regard to sustainability, with laws covering every aspect of our lives.On the environmental front, governments and regulatory bodies will have enforced a globally coordinated system to reduce carbon emissions i
6、n the early 2020s. Now, in 2050, being CO2 neutral is not enough; the law requires companies to be CO2 negative. Offsetting CO2 emissions is only possible with clearance from the state. Regulations on the use of natural resources have been reftned, with closed-loop recycling now a requirement. The e
7、nvironmental impact of every company is digitally tracked and the companys performance measured against a government-allocated budget for CO2 emissions, water usage and so on. Any attempts at greenwashing are punishable with harsh prison sentences.Major legislation has also been enacted affecting th
8、e Social dimension. Human rights violations are heavily sanctioned, forcing companies to develop additional policies and pay for independent audits in order to eliminate any risk of potential crimes. Businesses also have to reflect the diversity found in society in terms of gender ethnicity, sexual
9、orientation, age, and so on, in their workforce.In terms of governance, ftrms are now obliged to invest a ftxed percentage of their revenue in green technology in order to meet the new sustainability standards and compensate for any damage caused in the past. They are also taxed based on their ESG s
10、core.Implications for businessIn this centrally planned and heavily-regulated world, companies devote considerable effort to ensuring complianceThe business world prefers to err on the side of caution when it comes to adhering to new legislationStrict regulation has driven many players out of the ma
11、rketFirms have less time to be creative and develop their own sustainability solutions or innovations; instead, these are dictated by governmentCompetition between companies is weak or non-existentPlayers in one sector are not clearly differentiated from each other nog USPEUO 一o-sn-=Sustainarama Thi
12、nk:Act 1366AFKl口r-POLICE14 Think:Act SustainaramaScenario #2:Race for sustainabilityIN THE RACE FOR SUSTAINABILITY SCENARIO, the intensity of change is still all about breaking new ground, but society is now the main driving force. Thus, it is society and not regulators, that has caused disruption,
13、changing values and redesigning systems. The general public has embedded sustainability deep in their lifestyle, forcing companies through purchasing behavior to respond. For businesses, the race for sustainability is on.This shift in mindset has not happened by chance. In the mid-2020s, droughts in
14、 Africa and the south of Europe will have led to territorial conflicts and mass emigration. Combined with increasingly frequent storms and extreme weather events in other regions of the world, this has served as a wake-up call for society. People have realized that if they continue as things are, th
15、e planet will be destroyed. Although these events have caused irreparable damage to the world, society has successfully transformed itself and embraced a more sustainable lifestyle.On the environmental front, consumers early on began demanding that companies meet negative CO2 targets, and these have
16、 now become the new normal. The race for more sustainable products has been possible thanks to major leaps in technology in the area of CO2, such as the carbon dioxide catcher. Technology has also paved the way for a circular economy plus*, in which, although not obliged to do so, companies report t
17、heir natural resource and CO2 footprints, enabling consumers to make sustainable choices. Businesses are also becoming greener on the inside. For example, employees have started using social media apps to blow the whistle on any environmental misbehavior, such as the incorrect treatment of waste.In
18、terms of Social factors, companies will have fully implemented diversity initiatives in this scenario, responding to strong social pressure. They also now ftnd that they need to be diverse in order to attract the best talent, for which competition is fterce. Corporate giving and cause-related market
19、ing has also experienced a revival, and employees actively engage in activities such as beekeeping, planting trees, education, and the like.As far as governance is concerned, ftrms are now truly transparent about their supply chains. Any incidents are reported honestly and investigated in full. From
20、 a steering perspective, supervisory boards routinely open their doors to NGOs. Some companies go even further; giving planet artiftcial intelligence (AI) a vote on the management board in the name of the planet. Most ftrms have also linked their CEO pay to sustainability, with performance closely m
21、onitored by the outside world. Not infrequently, ftrms donate any proftt above their moderate growth targets to deserving causes. Finally, new capital is only available for companies that have a sustainability score above a certain threshold.Implications for businessThe race is on for companies to b
22、e the most sustainable among their competitorsESG affects all aspects of companies and their suppliersFirms invest strongly in R&D and elsewhere in order to stay ahead of the curve in terms of offering customers the most sustainable productTransparency and liberal regulation, with a focus on sustain
23、ability, has created an excellent breeding ground for innovation and progressThe role of companies has changed profoundly: Giving back to society is now a key marketing factor and mark of differentiationsusQ-nasma Thmkc-16 Think:Act SustainaramaScenario #3:Minimum viable master planIN THE MINIMUM VI
24、ABLE MASTER PLAN SCENARIO, the approach to change - or rather lack of change - is one of turning back the clock and the only driving force for sustainability is the regulator. Although regulators have identifted the need for change, companies continue to seek out loopholes that allow them to continu
25、e business as usual.No drastic action has been taken by 2050. The changes enforced by governments are small, and neither climate goals nor SDGs have been achieved. The world is plagued by wildftres, overftshing, food scarcity and poverty. Sustainable technology is found in some countries and regions
26、, for example, electric mobility in Europe and the United States, hydrogen-based mobility in Japan, but these are isolated success stories in specific ftelds. Strategies are fragmented and no global standards exist. Instead, governments have become more nationalistic and egotistical, using any new t
27、echnology or resources purely for their own beneftt.With regard to the environment, minimum regulations have been enforced, but these hardly repair the damage that has already been done. Companies are required to defineCO2 targets but they are not binding and no sanctions are imposed. As a result, g
28、reenwashing by companies is widespread. Lobbyists successfully weaken or prevent any regulations that might change this situation. One of the few areas where governments have seen some success is in reducing waste, controlling pollution and better managing natural resources. However; urban waste is
29、still a major problem and the ftght for scarce national resources is increasing year by year.On the Social front, regulators have tried to implement diversity, but their e仔orts have remained at the level of recommendations rather than binding legislation. Globally, human rights violations are on the
30、 rise, and companies are only interested in taking action if it costs them nothing.In the area of governance, although an environmental tax has been introduced, plenty of offshore tax havens exist enabling companies to avoid paying it. In some exceptional cases ftrms have linked CEO pay to sustainab
31、ility, but to minimal effect. Sustainability scandals are the new normal.Implications for businessCompanies spend considerable time and money lobbying government and searching for loopholes in the legislationThey are willing to optimize their activities in order to comply with regulations but not to
32、 outperform themCompetition for licenses to exploit raw materials is fierceFirms are not particularly concerned about diversity or fair payCompanies have to spend a certain amount dealing with the environmental scandals they causeGlobalization is declining in favor of a new nationalismSustainarama T
33、hink:Act 17MMWOTCARBON CAPTURING18 Think:Act SustainaramaScenario #4:Everyone for themselvesFINALLY, IN THE SCENARIO “EVERYONE FOR THEMSELVES, the general attitude is again one of turning back the clock, but what efforts there are in the direction of sustainability are driven by society rather than
34、the regulator. Consumers value sustainability but only if it ftts into their lifestyle and does not come at too high a cost. Climate protests have had hardly any impact, and climate goals have been missed. By 2050, large parts of the Americas, Africa, Europe and Asia are no longer habitable due to d
35、esertiftcation and extreme weather conditions, and more than a billion climate refugees are on the move. Oceans are overftshed, the air is polluted and food is scarce. Yet those parts of society that are not directly impacted are indifferent, choosing to ignore the climate protests, refugee flows an
36、d extinction of species.On the environmental front, there are no COo targets in place and climate change is now unstoppable. Companies still largely depend on fossil fuels and nuclear power.In the Social dimension, the few achievements in diversity dating from the 2020s have now been wiped out. Old
37、white men rule the world, and society idealizes the image of the 1950s housewife. Human rights have deteriorated over the years and people in developing countries face extreme poverty, harsh working conditions, child labor and war. Companies have a hire-and-ftre mentality: After all, there is plenty
38、 of talent on the market. Short-term proftt is king. Companies still donate, but only to bread and circuses- areas such as soccer, golf, tennis or opera.Supply chain governance activities have stopped, as price is now the key criterion for success. The only major risk that companies face is that of
39、green terrorism by activists.Implications for businessCompanies optimize short-term profit through minimum compliance with regulationUnemployment rates are high, creating an employers market: Firms can easily find skilled staff a hire-and-fire mentality prevails, wages are low and standards of emplo
40、yee treatment poorC02 emissions, pollution and waste are accepted in the name of profitFirms largely disregard ESG factorsThe way of doing business is reminiscent of the 1950 and 60s in Western Europe and the United StatesCompanies in the security and defense industry have grown strongly, reflecting
41、 societys desire to protect itself from the evil other20 Think:Act I Sustainarama（，NWiRV，WJennifer Morgan, ITH-International ExeciJtive Director of GreenpeacSeptember 2020Jennifer Morgan is International Executive Director of Greenpeace, the best-known environmental NGO in the world. She has been ca
42、mpaigning against climate change for more than two and a half decades. We asked herwhat she thinks the world will look like in 2050, what role businesses, governments and NGOs can play, and where her personal motivation comes from.More and more companies are now integrating sustainability into their
43、 corporate strategy. Are we on the right track?Jennifer Morgan: Unfortunately, no. We have seen that voluntary initiatives, where companies themselves try to integrate sustainability, do not work well. Often, they lack transparency. You just need to look at where the world is right now to know that
44、this approach is not working. Look at biodiversity loss, climate change or emissions, for example. Or deforestation: In 2010, companies at the Consumer Goods Forum committed to ending deforestation in their supply chains by 2020. While some have done more than others, that target is far from being m
45、et. Between 2010 and 2020 at least 50 million hectares will have been destroyed, mostly for the production of materials. The integration of sustainability into corporate strategies is a long way from where it ought to be.If we continue along our current path, what do you think the world will look li
46、ke in 2050?Jennifer Morgan: The world will not be a very nice place to live in. According to different projections, we are currently on a pathway to at least 3.2 warming by 2100. That will have dramatic consequences, such as millions more people on the move. And it is almost always the vulnerable that are impacted the most. We will likely see more displaced people within countries, and more refugees. With four degrees warming, youre looking at 1.8 billion additional people at risk of food insecurity. Water scarcity, extreme weather events - the world will be a very