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1、某咨某咨 询询 简简 介介某咨 询 对 于 石 化 成 本 分 析 项 目 的 理 解某咨 询 对 于 石 油 化 工 行 业 的 成 本 分 析 案 例 介 绍股 东 价 值 驱 动 的 分 析 模 型如 何 在 石 化 一 体 企 业 中 实 施 财 务 分 析 系 统某咨 询 推 荐 的 对 于 石 化 成 本 分 析 的 解 决 方 案 规 划某咨 询 实 施 工 具 介 绍问 答变变价值链管理价值链管理共享服务共享服务供应链管理供应链管理程序领导管理程序领导管理收购与兼并收购与兼并外包服务外包服务客户关系管理客户关系管理系统集成系统集成培训与教育服务培训与教育服务领导制度变更领导制度
2、变更业务流程重组业务流程重组电子交易电子交易电子商务电子商务知识管理知识管理信息系统规划信息系统规划企化战略与财务管理企化战略与财务管理某咨 询 简 介某咨某咨 询询 对对 于于 中中 石石 化化 成成 本本 分分 析析 项项 目目 的的 理理 解解某咨 询 对 于 石 油 化 工 行 业 的 成 本 分 析 案 例 介 绍股 东 价 值 驱 动 的 分 析 模 型如 何 在 石 化 一 体 企 业 中 实 施 财 务 分 析 系 统某咨 询 推 荐 的 对 于 中 石 化 成 本 分 析 的 解 决 方 案 规 划某咨 询 预 计 的 本 阶 段 项 目 实 施 的 范 围某咨 询 实 施
3、工 具 介 绍问 答某化工股份有限公司是一家上中下游一体化、石油石化主业突出、拥有比较完备销售网络的股份制企业，成立于2000年2月28日。某化工股份有限公司是由某化工集团公司根据中华人民共和国公司法，并遵循“主业与辅业分离、优良资产与不良资产分离、企业职能与社会职能分离”的原则，通过“业务、资产、债权债务、机构、人员”等方面的整体重组改制后，以独家发起方式设立的公司。某化工股份有限公司实行集中决策、分级管理和专业化经营的事业部制管理体制,其框架是一级法人为主、三级管理，即：总部是投资决策和资金运营中心；事业部、专业公司和子公司是利润中心；分公司是成本控制和生产管理中心。公司注册资本*亿元人民
4、币，董事长为公司法定代表人。某化工股份有限公司为建立现代企业制度，提高企业的竞争力，建立了统一的财务管理信息系统。 （1） 建立了全公司三级（决策中心、利润中心、成本中心）统一标准的财务管理和会计核算网络系统。 （2） 建立了满足中国会计准则、国际会计准则，基于财务逻辑网络的总部、分（子）公司、生产厂三级统一的财务管理和会计核算体系； （3） 提高了会计信息的及时性、准确性，加强监管能力，为决策支持提供更丰富的财务信息； （4） 支持公司总部绩效考核管理体系，为领导决策提供科学、准确、快捷的服务 ；（5） 开发符合国际会计准则和上市信息披露规则的财务管理和会计核算软件； （6） 建立了分布式财
5、务数据库，支持财务会计数据的实时向上复制、向下穿透查询和网上在线对帐； 指标指标运作运作价值管理价值管理战略战略超前的战略超前的战略领先的地位领先的地位系统系统流程流程管理管理 准确的指标准确的指标 准确的尺度准确的尺度EVA is a registered trademark of the Stern Stewart Company最可靠的衡量指数最可靠的衡量指数:股东回报率Total Shareholder Return (TSR)投资资本的现金流回报Cash flow return on gross invested capital (CFROI)加权平均的资本成本Weighted-Av
6、erage Cost of Capital (WACC)可持续的资产增长率Sustainable Asset Growth Rate未来现金流量的净现值Net present value of future cash flows (NPV or DCF)是否在创造价值?表现如何?什么是最低投资回报?如何衡量增长?公司的价值?需要衡量的对象需要衡量的对象.TSR = (市场差价市场差价 + 分红分红)/价格价格 = (2+1)/10 = 30%12110股价股价t = 0分红分红股价股价t = n股票价格股票价格分分 红红股东回报率股东回报率 (TSR)衡量分析指数衡量分析指数投资者回报投资者回
7、报TSR定义定义投资资本的现投资资本的现金流回报金流回报CFROI可持续增长可持续增长 自由现金流自由现金流当上市公司拥有以下特征时，较为适合使用CFROI:长年限的固定资产 (平均超过 15 年)具有大量固定资产固定资产非常陈旧或非常新具有大型投资模板和行为益处益处 跨国家，跨行业，跨时间比较 不受资产的年限和组合的影响 全面 使内部决策和外部资本市场的表现挂钩 提供投资项目的回顾审计 与资本成本可直接比较资产年限营运资本总现金流动量总投资额CFROI = IRR on a business542406446,06822,29210,4119,36948,140564216312141383
8、891Net Income+ Depreciation+ Interest Expense+ Minority Interest+ Gross Cash FlowNet Working Capital+Land+Investments= Non Depreciating Assets+ Net Fixed Assets+ Accum. Depr.*+ Inflation Adjustment*Gross Investment资产年限资产年限 = 20营运资本营运资本+ 土地土地Sinopec1999 ($ millions)Source: DC Analysis, Company financ
9、ial statementsCFROI = IRR = 6.1%48,1404,0796,068*DC EstimatesPeers?Cost of Capital?Plan CFROI?IRR：内部收益率592707396,66622,89710,5999,53949,7011926*2322*814*110*5172*Net Income+ Depreciation+ Interest Expense+ Minority Interest+ Gross Cash FlowNet Working Capital+Land+Investments= Non Depreciating Asset
10、s+ Net Fixed Assets+ Accum. Depr.*+ Inflation Adjustment*Gross Investment资产年限资产年限 = 20营运资本营运资本+ 土地土地Sinopec2000 ($ millions)Source: DC Analysis, Company financial statementsCFROI = IRR = 8.6%49,7015,1726,666*DC EstimatesPeers?Cost of Capital?Plan CFROI?IRR：内部收益率PositiveSpreadBusinessNeutralSpreadBus
11、inessNegativeSpreadBusinessDiscount Rate: WACCIncrease CFROIHold CFROIGrow AssetsErode CFROIGrow FasterIncrease CFROIThen GrowIncrease CFROIReduce ReinvestmentDivest or LiquidateCFROI%Strategies for Value CreationNote: this applies to business units as well as corporations overallCFROIAsset SizeFade
12、Net Cash Flows1 + Discount RateShare PriceAsset Growth=InvestorsGrossInvestmentSustainableGrowthPV Cash Flow Existing AssetsPV Cash Flow Future InvestmentTotal Economic Value- Market Value of Debt1)Equity Value34236-102633210-12687205231) ST & LT, minority interest2.2%$49,701 m8.2%10%$ mil$29.83/sha
13、reFade RateDiscountRate7.0%CFROISinopec, Fiscal 2000 estimate4.22.20.2Real AssetGrowth Rate(%)CFROI (%)15.7417.1117.814.230.7029.8328.628.246.5243.2340.0612.2Sinopec equity value (fiscal 2000)Base CaseWhat is it worth if we improve?Note: Growth only improves value if CFROI improves to “positive spre
14、ad”CEO/BoardBusiness UnitsOperationsHow do I influenceShare Price?What is the best wayto allocate my capital?How do I improveexecution?Determine where value is being created/destroyedAllocate capital like a portfolio managerImplement a consistent & planning process linked to KPIs and comp.Communicat
15、e to the market in a language they respond toFund ManagersShareholdersHow do I maximizeshareholder returns?Realize maximum valuefor shareholders - TSRLink to KPIsValueSinopecCFROI1.1%Asset Life20 yearsAsset Turns0.36Gross PlantAsset Turns0.44Net Cash FlowAsset Growth0.46%Fade Rate10%/yearSize Differ
16、ential-.72Leverage Differential+.57Gross Cash Flow2.394AdjustedGross Assets48,002Non-Dep.Assets6,666Operating Margin16.2% Sales Growth-?%COGS as a %of Sales78.1%SG&A as a %of Sales5.6%Inventory Turns3.98A/R Turns9.11CFROI VariabilityHighPloughbackLow to AverageCountry Discount Rate6.5%1+ WACC=Unit V
17、olumePrice RealisationLink to KPIsValue Drivers provide the direction and KPIs provide the feedback. A multi-tier system of measures is optimal, with the most accurate (and usually complicated) used by the finance department. From there on, simplification and controllability of KPIs is critical as t
18、hey are driven broadly and deeply throughout the organisationRevenue GrowthOperating Margins/ExpensesWorking CapitalAsset ProductivityStimulate SalesEconomic Devel ActivitiesExpand service territoryManage CostFuel usageWage RatesManage CashBilling/Collection CycleFuel and Stock InvestmentReturn on C
19、apitalAsset AvailabilityAsset UtilisationCash FlowInvestment财务回报财务回报价值驱动价值驱动KPIs% Rev New Products% Rev New MarketsAverage heat rate% Cost ReductionInventory TurnsReceivable Turns Equivalent AvailabilityCapacity Factor方向方向反馈反馈战略战略我们该观注什么我们该观注什么?我们如何去做我们如何去做?如何知道我们做得对如何知道我们做得对?什么是目标什么是目标?Link to KPIs
20、XXXPECChemicalsMarketingRefiningUpstreamStrategy focused on competitive position and new productsCost control, capacity utilization, new product development and product line managementStrategy focused on competitive positionPricing, regional shifts and format economics are key driversMany small bets
21、Value driven by customer strategy, store economics and growthStrategy focused on flexibility versus efficiencyLocked into LP Mindset?Find “out of box” optionsCost control and throughput are key short-term value driversStrategy focused on investment optionsField versus new geography investment and ex
22、ploration costs versus success rate are key driversMany betsValue driven by price investment strategy and operating effectivenessProduct line TSR,Plant CFROIBU TSR & Station CFROIProject IRR and refinery CFROIBU TSR & project IRRMetrics implementedLink to KPIs% Gross InvestmentCFROI10203040506070809
23、0100-5051020GasExploration6.0ChemicalsRefining and MarketingCost of Capital15Growth ProjectsCFROI Improvement ProjectsCFROI Improvement Projects: Asset management% of Gross Investment%AvgCFROI in Plan102030405060708090100-505101520253035Chemical 1ExplorationGas 1Chemical 2Gas 2Gas 3MarketingRefining
24、6.0Cost of CapitalChemical 3Chemical 4石油开采事业部石油开采事业部市场零售市场零售7.07.27.56.05.44.33.03.50.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.019931994199519961997199819992000CFROIWACC炼油炼油-2.21.10.8-3.4-1.6-1.40.20.1-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0939495969798990CFROIWACC10.213.513.112.811.912.112.512.30.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.0939495
25、969798990CFROIWACCLink to StrategyCleaning SuppliesHousehold ProductsChemical AdditivesFertilizersSpecialty Plastics产品产品市场市场零售零售工业工业商业商业政府政府直销直销Major MarketMinor MarketNo current marketLink to Strategy利润表:销售 利润管理费用利息折旧税务资产负债表:应收帐款存货固定资产应付帐款负债可获取可获取按人力分配按负债额分配预定年限 Division rate按产品可获取特殊区分按销售成本按负债/权益会计
26、科目表会计科目表预计流程预计流程Link to Strategy102030405060708090100-10-5051015202530商业商业直销直销零售零售工业工业政府政府CFROI % Gross InvestmentWACCConsolidated CFROILink to StrategySample Stores CFROISiteKeep?Keep FixCloseStrongWeakWeakStrongStores were grouped for next stepsCost of Capital6.0%Cons. CFROI17.0%-5051015202530Mana
27、gementLink to StrategyPrice/OrderOrder Size01234560102030405060708090Problem ordersLink to StrategyCommercialDirect SalesRetailIndustrialGovernmentCustomer GroupGood business, but limited growthGenerally ignored, profitable but unexcitingWell managedValue matureThought to be profitableGood relations
28、hips with customersProblem areaNecessary evilPrior View10% increase in growth doubles value“Hidden jewel” - re-addressed marketing strategyResults below peers in regionThroughput identified as key value driverSite acquisition model re-doneAsset intensity the keyFocus on raising CFROISignificant prob
29、lem areaPost VBM ViewMaintainAggressive growth plansSite improvement programNew store formatEvaluate accounts individuallyFocus on valuable customersFocus on improving CFROIExpand into other productsPossible exitNext StepsLink to StrategyCorporate OfficeInternal “Capital Market”BU 1BU 2BU 3Project L
30、ifeOutlayProject LifeOutlayCash FlowCash FlowProjectProjectInternal ViewInvestorsExternal “Capital Market”Stock 1Stock 2Stock 3External ViewAccountingDataSharePriceIncome StatementBalance SheetEPS, ROE, ROCECFROIGrowthWACCFadeCFROICash FlowGross Assets Asset LifeCFROIRevenueCostsOperating ProfitTaxP
31、rofit and Loss StatementWorking capitalFixed AssetsLiabilitiesDebtEquityBalance SheetRevenueCostsOperating ProfitTaxProfit and Loss StatementOperatingMarginGrossMarginExpenseMarginSellingcostsAdmin costsOverheadcostsOthercostsRaw MaterialcostsRefining CostsOverheadcosts8.2%8.7%8.7%ActualBudgetKey16.
32、2%16.5%CFROIOperating MarginAsset Turnover22.1%23.5%Gross Margin5.6%5.0%Expense Margin65.2%60.5%Raw MaterialRefining Costs4.0%3.5%Selling CostsAdmin Costs.87.90Fixed Assets12.014.0Working Capital8.010.0Receivables18.020.0Inventory75%80%Utilisation Rate10%12%Maintenance0.738.7%0.8017.3%16.7%1.0%1.0%P
33、rovides a financial profile of the business for communication and analysis Non-financial managers brought into value equation Summary measures broken down into parts for greater focusGraphically displays a comparison of performance standards Actual versus budget Current versus historic Sinopec perfo
34、rmance versus “best practice”Relationships can be used for “what if?” analysis:10% Improvement in:Results in CFROI Change of:Revenue1.7%Cost of Goods Sold2.1%Operating Costs4.4%Overhead Costs1.1%AFA Financial InvestmentAeltus Investment Mgmt., Inc.Alex Brown CapitalAllied Investment AdvisorsAlliance
35、 Capital Mgmt. Corp.American CenturyAmerican Century InvestmentAtlantic Capital Mgmt.Atlas Capital, L.P.Arden Group, Inc., TheAuchincloss & Lawrence, Inc.BP America, Inc.BTR Capital Management, Inc.Bahl & Gaynor Investment CounselBank of AmericaBay Isle FinancialBoys, Arnold & CompanyCambiar Investm
36、ent Inc.Canyon Partners Inc.Capital Research Co.Capital TechnologyCastleRock PartnersChase Investment Counsel Corp.CitibankClifford AssociatesColumbia Management Co.Composite Research & ManagementCompu-Val InvestmentsCrabbe Huson Group, Inc.Cramblit & Carney, Inc.Creekside Investment ManagementCrest
37、wood Asset ManagementDavis Selected Advisors, L.P.Davis Skaggs Investment Mgmt.Dean Witter Intercapital Inc.Delaware Investment Advisors, Inc.Eagle Global AdvisorsEaton CorporationEdward Jones & Co.Enright Financial ConsultantsEquinox Capital ManagementEveans, Bash, Magrino & Klein, Inc.Farmers Insu
38、rance Group of CompaniesFirst National Bank, SW OhioFleming Capital ManagementFrontier Investment Management Co.Frost National BankGMG/Seneca Capital ManagementGEM Land CompanyGeneral Accident Insurance Co.General Motors Inv. Mgmt. Corp.GlobeFlex CapitalGoefen & Glossberg, Inc.Greenleaf Capital Mana
39、gement Gries Financial Corp.Guardian, TheHGK Asset Management, Inc.Hotchkis & WileyHoward Hughes Medical InstituteHughes Investment Management Co.Hutchens Investment ManagementInvestment Advisors, Inc.Investment Counselors, Inc.JanusJohnson Investment Counsel, Inc.Jurika & Voyles, Inc., Investment M
40、gmt.KPM Investment Management, Inc.Kalmar Investments, Inc.Kanawha Capital ManagementKempner Capital Management, Inc.Kennedy Capital ManagementKunath Karren Rinne & Atkin, Inc.Legacy Capital ManagementLegg Mason Capital Mgmt., Inc.Leonard Management GroupLockheed Martin CorpLogan Capital Management,
41、 Inc.Luther King Capital Mgmt.Lutheran Church, TheMcMurrey Investment Advisors, Inc.Mercantile TrustMeridian Investment CompanyMerrill Lynch Asset ManagementMesirow FinancialMississippi Valley AdvisorsMontag ManagementNational City BankNike Securities L.P.Noroian Capital ManagementNorwest Capital Ad
42、visorsNWQ Investment Management Co.Oppenheimer CapitalOppenheimerFunds, Inc.Oppenheimer ManagementPacific Alliance CapitalParnassus Fund, ThePeregrine Capital ManagementPhilip V. Swan AssociatesPioneering Management Corp.Plaza Investment Managers, Inc.Prudential Mutual Fund InvestmentPSA FinancialPu
43、tnam Companies, Inc.RCM Capital Management, LLCRM Investment Management, Inc.Richard Blum & AssociatesRoberts, Glore & Co.Robertson Stephens & Co.Roger H. Jenswold & Co., Inc.Roulston & Company, Inc.Salomon Brothers Asset ManagementSand Hill Advisors, Inc.Schneider CapitalSCI Capital ManagementSchol
44、tz & CompanySecurities Management & ResearchSeligman, J.W. & Co., Inc.Sentinel Trust Co.SMC Capital ManagementSheffield Investment ManagementShields/AllianceSignet Asset ManagementSmith Barney Investment AdvisorsSoros Fund ManagementSovereign Advisors, Inc.Spears Benzak Salomon & FarrellSpero Smith
45、Investment Advisers, Inc.Stafford Trading Standard Pacific Capital LLCStar BankStarbuck, Tisdale & AssociatesState of New JerseyState Street ResearchStein Row & FarnhamSterling Ltd.Stonebridge Capital Management Inc.Stoneleigh Investment CounselingStrong Capital Management, Inc. Sturdivant & Company
46、, Inc.Summit Investment ManagementSun Life of CanadaTiger Asset ManagementT. Rowe PriceTexas Commerce BankTRUSCO Capital ManagementTrust Company of the WestUSAA Investment Management Co.VA Retirement SystemW.D. Hutchinson & AssociatesWashington Investment AdvisorsWeiss, Peck & Greer InvestmentsWelli
47、ngton Management CompanyWoodside Asset Management Fidelity InvestmentsInvesco Capital Management.Aeltus Investment Management, Inc.AMP Investments AustraliaAmerican Express Asset Management IntlAXA Sun Life Invest Management Service*BOE Asset ManagementBFG Bank AGBankers Trust JapanBaring Internatio
48、nalBritish Aerospace Pension InvestmentCIS Co-operative Insurance SocietyCS Asset ManagementCapital Group Companies, Inc.Citibank Global Asset ManagementDEKA Deutsche KapitalanlagegesellschaftDresdner RCM Capital ManagementDresdner RCM Global Investors Asia, Ltd.Deutsche Morgan Grenfel Asset Managem
49、entEquitilinkFidelity Investment ServicesFirst State Fund Managers Ltd., AustraliaFleming Investment ManagementGartmore Investment Management*GIC Government of Singapore InvestmentGIM General Investment Management B.V.GlobeFlex CapitalHSBC Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd.HSBC Asset Management Japan,
50、KKHypovereinsbankIBJ Industrial Bank of JapanINVESCO Asset ManagementInvesco GT Asset Management PLCIOOF Funds Management JanusJardine Fleming InvestmentJulius Baer Asset ManagementLabouchere & Co. Private BankingLiberty Asset Management LimitedLingohr & Partner Asset ManagementM & G GroupMarathon A