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1、-Unit 6 RisksUseful InformationRisk is the probability of losing something of value. Since we value life above other things, the greatest risk for most people is the risk of death. Yet life itself, to the best of our knowledge, is ultimately limited. The key word here is “ultimately”. Since we hope
2、to live a lot longer, we easily overlook the routine and long-range risks associated with being human, and concentrate instead on other sorts of risks. We rarely think about the chances of death, disability, or disaster, or try to predict the times of their occurrence. Walking across the street in m
3、any cities is more dangerous than riding an airplane across an ocean, but many people give no thought to the former and have great fear of the latter. People eagerly do dangerous things for recreation that they would rarely do at work, such as scaling a steep mountain or skiing rapidly down it. Youn
4、g people are especially willing to take foolish chances for the sheer joy of doing so, or because they discount the probability of adverse outcomes. Yet they should probably be much more careful than their elders, since they have longer life expectancies remaining and thus have more at stake.Other t
5、hings we value include health, safety, money, property, relationships and happiness. There are risks attached to the loss of any of these. Hypochondriacs exaggerate the risks of ill health or injury. Ironically the precautions taken to promote health and safety may add to a hypochondriacs perception
6、 of the risks involved. A wise investor takes calculated risks with money, and tries to choose reasonable risks over unreasonable ones. A compulsive gambler, on the other hand, is so addicted to risk that there is little thought of the loss that inevitably follows from gambling indefinitely against
7、the odds. So risk itself may at times be perceived as a reward.Optimists and pessimists have opposite attitudes toward risk. Extreme optimists always expect the best. Therefore they try to maximize gain. More cautious optimists may try to maximize the minimum gain. Extreme pessimists always expect t
8、he worst. Therefore they come to expect the maximum loss. More moderate pessimists may try to maximize the minimum loss. The science of cost-benefit analysis studies these and other strategies for managing risk. So does actuarial science (保险计算科学), with special emphasis on the risks of death, injury,
9、 or illness.One way to manage risk in ordinary life is through rational planning. By considering alternatives and balancing the greatest or most likely risks against the greatest or most likely rewards, we can often make better decisions and give greater consideration to long-term outcomes. By alway
10、s having a contingency plan in case our main plan fails, we can usually avoid catastrophes. But planning takes effort, and we must balance this effort against the pleasure of doing things spontaneously because they are not very important or not very risky, and plan other things carefully because the
11、y are very important or very risky. Part One PREPARATION1. Risks in JobsPhysical RisksFinancial RisksEmotional Riskscoal-miner, nurse, policeman, secretary, teacher, fighter pilot, interpreter, firemanfootball player, writer, cleaner, tourist guide, factory worker, chemical engineer, computer progra
12、mmerbusinessman, stockbroker, accountant, peasant, writer, civil servant, tourist guidenurse, psychiatrist, lawyer, president, teacher, singer, psychologist, tourist guide, writer, host of TV show, ambassador, model, journalist Note: Students may have different ideas in grouping these jobs. Thats na
13、tural.2. Which activity is riskier?STEP ONEThe following is a list of the activities from the riskiest to the safest:rock climbing skydiving driving a motorcycle being a 65-year-old man skiing flying in an airplane driving a car working on a farm STEP THREEI prefer to do rock-climbing. I know its a
14、risky sport but I really want to challenge myself and see how I can use my muscles and brain to do a tough job. You may ask why I like this risky sport while there are so many safer ones to test my strength and determination. I was born in a mountain area and Ive been enjoying mountain climbing sinc
15、e my childhood. I always feel excited while climbing a mountain, and rock-climbing is even more exciting. Its true rock-climbing is full of dangers, but life itself is full of dangers too. With modern equipment and our brains, we can prevent serious accidents and minor injuries wont hurt us too much
16、. I dont think I would like any of the activities listed. Actually I dont like sports. As far back as I can recall, my childhood was spent in hospital. In other words, I was in poor health for a long time. When other children in the neighborhood began their training in sports, I had to go to hospita
17、l and take medicine to survive. In that case, I wasnt allowed to play outdoors most of the time. In addition to my physical weakness, Im cautious by nature. I dont like to take any risks in my life. Anyway, Im an excellent chess player. My father taught me how to play chess and bought several books
18、about chess to improve my skill. So chess is something I enjoy most. 3. Why Would People Like to Take Risks?Sample:I am really impressed by these quotes. They tell us that life is full of risks. As Ali put it, he who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life. So taking r
19、isks is an essential part of growth and progress. If we look at some famous people we know, obviously they are all good risk takers. In addition to making achievements, some people take risks to enjoy a new experience and to challenge themselves. They want to look like a courageous guy or a strong p
20、erson. Taking risks will make them feel more confident and competent. They also want to enjoy the excitement in risk taking because their lives are otherwise too peaceful and comfortable. Part Two READING-CENTERED ACTIVITIESIn-Class ReadingPre-ReadingSampleThe three riskiest things I do in a normal
21、day: ride my bicycle in heavy traffic; run down stairs; do scientific experiments.Passage ReadingWords, Phrases and Grammatical Points1. risk关于risk的词组有很多：at risk 处于危险之中e.g. I) The disease is spreading, and all children under five are at risk. II) Heart disease can be avoided if people at risk take m
22、edical advice.at the risk of 冒的危险e.g. I) He saved my life at the risk of losing his own. II) At the risk of offending you, I must tell you that I disapprove of your behavior.run the risk of 冒的危险e.g. I) I dont want to run the risk of meeting George. II) I was afraid to run the risk of betting on the
23、game.take a risk/risks 冒险做可能失败或危险的事e.g. I) You are taking a big risk driving so fast. II) But he must be cautious; he must take no unnecessary risks.2. “And from these threats come questions that we must pose to ourselves” (l. 6)1) This sentence means that these threats give rise to questions that w
24、e must ask ourselves.当句首状语为表示地点的介词词组，谓语动词为go, come等表示位置转移的动作动词时，句子通常全部倒装。e.g. I) From the room came the sound of children singing.II) From the fountain bubbled a stream of cool water.2) pose: give rise to (a difficult or dangerous situation) Some phrases with “pose”: pose a problem/difficulty/risk/t
25、hreat/challenge/question. e.g. I) Officials claim the chemical poses no real threat. II) Rising unemployment is posing serious problems for the administration. III) They had been expected to pose a serious challenge to the main parties.3. rather (l.16) adv. to a fairly large degreee.g. I realize tha
26、t Ive been rather stupid and selfish. Some phrases with “rather”: rather than: instead ofe.g. I) It would be better to make a decision now, rather than leave it until later. II) It was what he meant rather than what he said that annoyed me. would rather: prefer to do or have somethinge.g. I would ra
27、ther you didnt mention this matter to anyone else. or rather: used before correcting something that you have said, or giving more specific information e.g. We all went in Vics car, or rather his fathers.not. but rather.: used to say that one thing is not true but a different thing ise.g. The problem
28、 is not their lack of funding, but rather their lack of planning.4. accidentally (l. 21) happening by chance, not by plan or intentione.g. This morning I accidentally met with a friend with whom I have never kept in touch for a long time. Compare: incidentally: used for adding something to what was
29、said before, either on the same or another subjecte.g. I must go now. Incidentally if you want that book Ill bring it next time. 5. accordingly (l. 28)1) in a way that is suitable for a particular situation or that is based on what someone has done or said e.g. I have told you the circumstances, so
30、you must act accordingly2) for that reason; thereforee.g. He has impressed his employers considerably and accordingly he is soon to be promoted. 课内阅读参考译文风险与你1 在说不定的某个时候，我们大家都曾充当过疑病症患者的角色,只凭一些轻微的症状便怀疑自己得了某种可怕的病。有的人只要一听说一种新的疾病，就会去检查，看自己是否可能患了这种病。然而，对疾病的恐惧并非我们唯一的恐惧。同样，患病的危险也并非我们唯一会遇上的危险。现代生活中充满了各种各样的威胁
31、，诸如对我们生命的威胁，对我们平和心境的威胁，对我们家人的威胁，对我们未来的威胁。从而产生了好些问题，我们不得不问自己：我买的食品安全吗？给孩子们的玩具会伤害他们吗？我们家的人是不是不该吃熏肉？我度假时会不会遭抢劫？我们的疑虑就;无休止地增加。2 对生活中风险的担忧与疑病症有相似之处；二者的恐惧或忧虑皆起因于信息不全面。但二者之间也存在一个明显的差别。疑病症患者通常可以求助于医生，以便澄清疑虑要么你得了你所怀疑的疾病，要么你没得。但当涉及到其它形式的风险时，事情就要困难得多，因为对许多风险来说，情况并不那么简单。3 风险几乎总是一个可能性的问题而无确定性可言。你也许会问：“我该不该系安全带？”
32、如果你坐的车要与其它车正面相撞，那当然该系安全带。倘若你的车侧面被撞，结果你被困在车里，又因安全带装置遭破坏而无法挣脱，那怎么办呢？这是否意味着你该再花些钱在车内安一个保险气袋呢？同样，在正面相撞的情况下，保险气袋完全可以救你一命。但是，万一正当你在高速公路上开车时，保险气袋突然意外充气膨胀，从而导致了本来绝不会发生的事故，那又该如何是好？4 上面说的这一切，只是从另一角度说明我们所做的事没有一件是百分之百安全的。有些风险常常是潜在的重大风险与我们的每个业余爱好、所做的每项工作、所吃的每种食物有关，换句话说，与所进行的任何活动有关。但我们又不能，也不该因危险存在于我们将要做的每件事，而变成战战
33、兢兢的神经症患者。有5 例如，两车相撞时，大车总的说来要比小车安全些。可究竟能安全多少呢？答案是这样：在一起严重的车祸中坐小车丧生的可能性是坐大车的两倍左右。然而，大车通常比小车贵（并且消耗更多的汽油，由此给环境带来了更大的风险！）。那么我们该怎样确定什么时候值得为降低风险增加花费呢？例如，避免风险最保险的做法也许是去买一辆坦克或装甲车，从而把撞车时死亡或受伤的风险降到最小。然而，即便你买得起，这笔额外的费用以及忍受坦克或装甲车所带来的不便是否值得呢？些活动是比其它活动更危险。关键在于要让自己了解相应的风险，然后相机行事。6 在我们尚不知所涉及的风险程度之前，我们还无法回答这些问题。那么，我们
34、该如何去衡量风险程度呢？有些人似乎认为答案只不过是一个简单的数字。例如，我们知道每年大约有25,000 人死于车祸。相比之下，每年只有大约300人死于矿山事故和灾难。这难道就意味着乘坐汽车要比采矿危险得多吗？未必。事实是，在美国每年大约有两亿人经常性地以车代步；而大概只有70万人从事采矿作业。我们评估一种风险时，所需要的有关数字是一个比率或分数。该分数的分子告诉我们在某个特定时期由于从事某种特定活动而丧生或受伤的人数；其分母告诉我们在这一时期从事这种活动的总人数。这样，所有的风险程度都是由比率或分数表示，其大小介于0（无风险）到1（完全风险）之间。7 通过把所有风险都简化为这种比率或分数，我们
35、便可以开始比较不同种类的风险，如比较采矿与乘坐汽车。这个比率越大，也就是说它越接近1，那么有关活动的风险就越大。在刚才讨论的例子中，我们可以用每一活动中死亡的人数除以参与该活动的总人数，从而找出汽车旅行与采煤的相对安全性。此处，我们可以很清楚地看到，乘坐汽车旅行的风险是每一万人中大约有一人丧生；而就采矿而言，其危险程度是每一万矿工中大约有四人死亡。所以，尽管在车祸中丧生的人远比采矿要多，其实后者的风险是前者的四倍。这些比率使我们能够对毫不相干的活动或情形的危险性加以比较，即便差别如苹果与橘子那样大也能比较。如果你反对冒险，你就会选择风险比率较小的活动。如果你无所畏惧，那么你往往会对高比率不太在
36、乎，除非它们大得令人难以承受。8 我们一旦明白了风险是永远无法从任何情况中完全去除的，因而就没有绝对安全的事，我们也就会明白问题的关键不是要彻底避免风险，而是要理智地管理风险。风险管理需要两大要素：常识以及与我们可能要承担的风险的性质和程度相关的信息。Reading Comprehension1. Understanding the Organization of the TextStep One1) Risks are always a matter of probability rather than certainty.2) The author supports the main id
37、ea by means of a comparison between hypochondria and anxiety about the risks of life, and an analysis of injury prevention.Step TwoWe should inform ourselves about the relevant risks before making any decision.(Para. 4)We need to know the relative safety of large cars and small cars before our purch
38、ase. (Para. 5) Example 1 Problem Example 2How do we measure the level of a risk?(Para. 6)Which activity is riskier, riding in a car or mining?(Para. 6) SolutionMining is four times riskier than riding in a car. (Para. 7)Risk levels can be expressed in ratios or fractions.(Para. 6-7)2. Understanding
39、Specific Information1) What is risk?SimilarityDifferenceHypochondriaIn both cases, the fear or anxiety feeds on partial information.The hypochondriac can turn to a physician to get a definitive clarification of the situation.Anxiety about the Risks of LifeRisks are a matter of probability rather tha
40、n certainty.2) How do we measure the risk level?Total Number of DeathsPeople Involved in the ActivityThe Risk LevelTraveling by Car25,000200 million1/8,000Coal Mining300700,0003/7,0003. Group Discussion1) I think airplanes are safer.2) Perhaps because airplane crashes are almost always fatal. If you
41、 are in an airplane crash, you will die most probably, but you might not be killed in a car accident. Even though fewer people die in air crash than in car accidents, people feel far less secure in the air than on the ground. We are still more used to cars than airplanes.Vocabulary Practice1. 1) sen
42、siblesensible: having or showing good sense; reasonablesensitive: easily hurt, upset, or offended by things that people say2) relativerelevant: directly connected with the subject or problem being discussed or consideredrelative: considered in relation or proportion to somebody/something else; compa
43、rative3) mechanismmachine: 机器mechanism: a structure of working parts functioning together to produce an effect4) requiresrequire: need somethingrequest: ask for something politely or formally5) eliminatereduce: make something smaller in size, number, degree, price, etc.eliminate: completely get rid
44、of something that is unnecessary or unwanted6) crashcrash: a breaking to pieces especially by or as if by collisioncollision: an accident in which two or more people or vehicles hit each other while moving in different directions2.1) character 2) end up 3) Rarely 4) casual 5) risky 6) all manner of
45、7) inform 8) sensible 9) definitively3. 1) On the strength of 2) all manner of 3) feed on 4) reduceto 5) end up 6) associated with 7) focus on 8) turned to 9) participate in 10) involved in 课外阅读参考译文Passage I健康威胁1 民意调查一再告诉我们，美国人最为担心的就是他们的健康，其次才是环境问题。这是完全可以理解的，因为身体健康显然比生病要好。美国人现在对健康如此关注，是有点令人吃惊，因为他们目前
46、比以往任何时候都要健康得多。许多曾令人恐惧的疾病现在或者已经彻底根除，或者已得到控制。尽管艾滋病是个显著的例外，但是现在几乎没有什么新的能置许多人于死地的疾病出现，以取代那些已被根除的疾病。2 然而，健康以及对健康的各种威胁，仍然是人们永久关注的问题。毕竟，如果目前的趋势无法制止的话，我们中将有不止一半（57）的人将死于心脏病或是癌症。3 将威胁健康的危险，特别是致命的危险，进行比较时，有一个主要的问题，就是这些危险的紧迫性有很大差异。例如艾滋病，如果你染上的话，很可能几年后就死亡。然而，由吸烟或辐射诱发的癌症，也许要经过20至30年的时间其灾难性的后果才会出现。因此，在对健康的各种危险做出选
47、择时，务必要考虑进行冒险与承受其后果之间的时间间隔。4 那些一心要“今朝有酒今朝醉”的人们，往往对潜伏期较长的危害不放在心上。尽管这是一种目光短浅的行为，但不理会滞后期长的危险，重视近期危险还是有道理的。毕竟，如果我们真的面临选择，是去做今天就可能使我们丧命的事，还是去做20年后才可能使我们丧命的事，我们往往会两害相比取其轻。5 对待这类问题有种常用的计算方法，就是考虑可能少活的年数（YPLL）。其意思是，对一个25岁的人来说，去做一件使自己五年后丧生的事要比做一件40年后丧生的事“代价高昂”得多。二者同样都具有危险因素即最终因从事某事而导致死亡的可能性相同但是，会马上引起伤害的危险，要比一个很长时间不需付出代价的危险要昂贵得多。在第一种情形下，他的正常寿命减少了约45年，而在第二种情形下，减少了约5年。以这种角度看问题必然会对威胁健康的许多因素进行重新评估。例如，心脏病是夺去美国人性命的头号杀手，远远超过癌症或中风。然而，老年人患心脏病的比例大大超出了年轻人。相比之下，癌症的死亡人数虽然要少于心脏病的死亡人数，但患癌症的人群比较年轻。所以，尽管心脏病死亡率要大，但癌