《新兴市场-宏观策略-阿根廷：经济稳定的初步迹象.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《新兴市场-宏观策略-阿根廷：经济稳定的初步迹象.docx（8页珍藏版）》请在taowenge.com淘文阁网|工程机械CAD图纸|机械工程制图|CAD装配图下载|SolidWorks_CaTia_CAD_UG_PROE_设计图分享下载上搜索。
1、BNP PARIBASThe bank for a changing worldPlease refer to important information and AR disclosures at the end of this reportEM ECONOMICS360Strategy & EconomicsArgentina: Tentative signs of economic stabilisationKEY MESSAGESArgentinas high-frequency, partial indicat rs are already showing signs of mode
2、rate growth in Q1 2 19.This compares positively with our previous forecast of flat Q1 gro th, followed by an agriculture-driven bounce in Q2.We have revised our 2019 gro th forecast to -1.2% from -1.5% on the stronger Q1 perfor ance and lower statistical carryover from 2018.However, higher interest
3、rates and inflation (now seen at 34% Dec/Dec) could likely hurt growth in the remainder of 2019.Available, partial industrial and construction activity indicators for February suggest that the Argentinian economy probably expanded for a second straight month. Although the preliminary numbers for Mar
4、ch are not upbeat, positive growth in the first two months of the year is sufficient to seal the case for the first quarterly expansion since Q4 2017.We are thus revising our Q1 real GDP growth forecast modestly to 0.2% q/q (sa), from the previous flat reading of 0% q/q (sa). We expect a more visibl
5、e expansion in Q2, driven by a weather-related bounce in agricultural production. After a severe drought in 2018, agricultural production is poised to post a 36% y/y recovery.Overall, we now expect annual real GDP to contract 1.2% (previous forecast -1.5%). The revision stems from a lower, negative
6、statistical carryover from 2018 and the positive surprise in Q1 2019 growth.However, we are lowering our quarterly forecasts for the second half of the year as we expect higher inflation and interest rates to last longer. We currently expect GDP growth to be more modest in Q3 and flat in Q4.MARKET V
7、IEWOur strategy team believes that change their bearish view on A above 905bp, respectively, refle Give the financial and fiscal Octo er, the team believes that talthough there might be some green shoots, this may not be enrgentinian assets. 1y, 2y and 5y CDS are trading at 942bp, 1006ugh toDp and:t
8、ing an implied default probability of 15-20% (1y and 2y) and 47.5% (5y).vulnerabilities and uncertainties surrounding the presidential election in lere is more tp go, especi lly in the front end.External funding c pacity (ex-IMF) will be key for Argentin in 2020-23. The inverted CDS curve cquestion
9、the countrys ability to tap the markets. The strategy team had been positioned in IArge tina CDS since August 2Q18 (in relative value against a basket of Brazil, Mexico and ColoCDS). The trade was closed on WednesdayArge tinian leg, +42bp on the Brazilian leg, +010 April for a P&L of 510bp. Of this,
10、 +472bp was (bp on the Colombian leg and -4bp on the Mexican legIls into)ng 5ybia 5y)n theFig. 1: Monthly GDP, IP, construction activity (% y/y, 3m MA)Sources: Indec, Macrobond, BNP ParibasFig. 2: Monthly GDP proxy and BNPP growth tracker (% y/y)Sources: Indec, Macrobond, BNP ParibasMARK亚360Florenci
11、? yazquez, Economist | BNP Paribas Sucursal B enos Aires Andre Diqiacom。EM/Latam Strategist) Banco BNP Paribas BrasilEM ECONCContraction expected to be smaller in 2019 despite weak H2The financial crisis that started in May 2018 and the sharp monetary and fiscal adjustments that followed sent the ec
12、onomy into a deep recession. Indeed, real GDP contracted in every single quarter of 2018; the total contraction on a q4/q4 basis stood at 6.5%.Markets have been pondering over when the economy will start showing signs that a bottom has been reached. Partial available data suggests that a bottom was
13、probably reached in Q4 2018 and that real GDP started to grow again (albeit modestly) in Q1 2019 (Fig. 1).While the official monthly GDP proxy published by INDEC showed an expansion of 0.6% m/m in January, industrial and construction activity reports for February have also shown a monthly, seasonall
14、y adjusted advance. This is probably consistent with another monthly real GDP gain in February. Our own proxy* for monthly economic performance suggests that the annual pace of contraction continued to moderate in February (Fig. 2).However, the partial data released so far for March have not been as
15、 encouraging. Still, the advances of the previous months suggest that the quarter probably saw a modest 0.2% q/q (sa) expansion. If our forecast is correct, this would be the first positive reading since Q4 2017. The consensus, according to the last survey released by BCRA, also looks for a small 0.
16、3% q/q (sa) real GDP gain.The expansion is likely to continue in Q2 2019, when an agriculture-driven bounce is forecast. Indeed, agricultural production contracted 22% in 2018, severely hurt by extremely dry weather conditions.We now expect agricultural output to expand at a vigorous pace of 36% in
17、2019 (Fig. 3). The bulk of this positive impact will be seen in Q2, when most of the harvesting is done.We are trimming the annual GDP 2019 forecast to -1.2% (from the previous -1.5%). This revision reflects a smaller negative statistical carryover from 2018 and the upward revision to the Q1 forecas
18、t. We also expect a weaker second half of the year, but the positives outweigh the negatives and the net impact for the full year is a small improvement.Beyond the specific impulse from agricultural activity, we do not expect the economy to show a strong recovery. The driver of growth beyond Q2 coul
19、d be consumption. Indeed, a small, temporary recovery in purchasing power can be expected as most wage negotiations w川 be finalised by end- 02.Also, the provincial election calendar suggests public employees are likely to get wage increases in the coming months (see Argentina : Election Tracker for
20、more details). These wage increases (after a visible plunge in 2018, Fig. 4) could provide a temporary boost to consumption.However, consumer price inflation has been higher than anticipated in Q1 and is expected to remain high in April. Some relief is expected from May/June onwards but any improvem
21、ent in real purchasing power is likely to be smaller than originally expected. We are thus trimming our Q3 real GDP forecast and expect a flat performance in Q4 (Fig. 5).Amid FX market volatility, which is likely to intensify as we approach the August national primaries, interest rates are expected
22、to stay higher for longer.Against this backdrop, we are revising up our year-end policy rate forecast to 45%. Higher rates and financial market volatility are also likely to take a toll on economic activity.Fig. 4: Real wages (% y/y, deflated by headline CPI inflation)Sources: Indec, Macrobond, BNP
23、ParibasFig. 3: Agricultural output1 (mn tonnes)Sources: Secretary of Agriculture, Cattle and Fishing, Macrobond, BNP Paribas 1.Includes wheat, soybean, corn and sunflower.Fig. 5: Real GDP growth and forecasts (% change)Sources: Indec, Macrobond, BNP ParibasMARKET9360 I FOCUS 11/04/192*We estimate mo
24、nthly economic activity by using a two-step procedure. First, we implement principal component analysis (PCA) to extract a common latent factor from a variety of comprehensive economic activity indicators. Second, we use the common factor to forecast the monthly proxy of GDP by ordinary least square
25、s (OLS).Florenci? yazciuez, Economist | BNP Paribas Sucursal Buenos Aires Andre Diqiacomo、EM/Latam Strategist | Banco BNP Paribas BrasilL NOTICEThis document has been written by our Strategist and Economist teams within the BNP Paribas group of companies (collectively “BNPP)； it does not purport to
26、be an exhaustive analysis, and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from their interaction with sales and trading which could affect the objectivity of this report. This document is non-independent research for the purpose of the UK Financial Conduct Authority rules. For the purposes of
27、 the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) (MiFID II), non-independent research constitutes a marketing communication. This document is not investment research for the purposes of MiFID II. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to provide th
28、e independence of investment research, and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.The content in this document/communication may also contain “Research“ as defined under the MiFID II unbundling rules. If the document/communication contains Rese
29、arch, it is intended for those firms who are either in scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and have signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages, or firms that are out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and therefore not required to pay for Research under MiFID II. Please
30、note that it is your firms responsibility to ensure that you do not view or use the Research content in this document if your firm has not signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages, except where your firm is out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules.STEER is a trade mark of B
31、NPP.MARKETS 360 is a trade mark of BNP ParibasThis document constitutes a marketing communication and has been prepared by BNPP for, and is directed at, (a) Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) (MiFID II), a
32、nd (b) where relevant, persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, and at other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated (together “Relevant Persons) u
33、nder the regulations of any relevant jurisdiction. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to and will be engaged in only with Relevant Persons. Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this document or its content.Securities de
34、scribed herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.The information and opinions contained in this document have been obtained from, or are based on, public sources believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee of the accuracy, completeness or
35、fitness for any particular purpose of such information and such information may not have been independently verified by BNPP or by any person. None of BNPP, any of its subsidiary undertakings or affiliates or its members, directors, officers, agents or employees accepts any responsibility or liabili
36、ty whatsoever or makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy and completeness of the information or any opinions based thereon and contained in this document and it should not be relied upon as such.This document does not constitute or form any part of any offer to s
37、ell or issue and is not a solicitation of any offer to purchase any financial instrument, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on, in connection with any contract or investment decision. To the extent that any transaction is subsequently ent
38、ered into between the recipient and BNPP, such transaction will be entered into upon such terms as may be agreed by the parties in the relevant documentation.Information and opinions contained in this document are published for the information of recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authorit
39、ative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipient, are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein. In providing this document, BNPP does not offer investment, financial, legal, tax or an
40、y other type of advice to, nor has any fiduciary duties towards, recipients. Any reference to past performance is not indicative of future performance, which may be better or worse than prior results. Any hypothetical, past performance simulations are the result of estimates made by BNPP, as of a gi
41、ven moment, on the basis of parameters, market conditions, and historical data selected by BNPP, and should not be used as guidance, in any way, of future performance. To the fullest extent permitted by law, no BNPP group company accepts any liability whatsoever (including in negligence) for any dir
42、ect or consequential loss arising from any use of or reliance on material contained in this document even where advised of the possibility of such losses. All estimates and opinions included in this document are made as of the date of this document. Unless otherwise indicated in this document there
43、is no intention to update this document.BNPP may make a market in, or may, as principal or agent, buy or sell securities of any issuer or person mentioned in this document or derivatives thereon. Prices, yields and other similar information included in this document are included for information purp
44、oses however numerous factors will affect market pricing at any particular time, such information may be subject to rapid change and there is no certainty that transactions could be executed at any specified price.BNPP may have a financial interest in any issuer or person mentioned in this document,
45、 including a long or short position in their securities and/or options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon, or vice versa. BNPP, including its officers and employees may serve or have served as an officer, director or in an advisory capacity for any person mentioned in this docume
46、nt. BNPP may, from time to time, solicit, perform or have performed investment banking, underwriting or other services (including acting as adviser, manager, underwriter or lender) within the last 12 months for any person referred to in this document. BNPP may be a party to an agreement with any per
47、son relating to the production of this document. BNPP may to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information contained herein, or the analysis on which it was based, before the document was published. BNPP may receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking service
48、s in the next three months from or in relation to any person mentioned in this document. Any person mentioned in this document may have been provided with relevant sections of this document prior to its publication in order to verify its factual accuracy.This document is for information purposes onl
49、y and there is no assurance that a transaction(s) w川 be entered into on such indicative terms. Any indicative price(s) contained herein have been prepared in good faith in accordance with BNPPs own internal models and calculation methods and/or are based on or use available price sources where considered relevant. Indicative price(s) based on different models or assumpti