《中国太阳能产业：什 么可能是推动股市进一步上涨的关键因素.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《中国太阳能产业：什 么可能是推动股市进一步上涨的关键因素.docx（43页珍藏版）》请在taowenge.com淘文阁网|工程机械CAD图纸|机械工程制图|CAD装配图下载|SolidWorks_CaTia_CAD_UG_PROE_设计图分享下载上搜索。
1、蠡 UBSoGlobal Research19 March 2019Alex Liu +86-213-866 8857Abigail Sun +86-213-866 8637Freda Zhu +86-213-866 8879China Solar SectorWhat could be the key drivers of a further rally?Sustainable margin improvement is not priced inChinas solar sector has outperformed the A-and H-share indexes and US mar
2、kets since November 2018, mainly due to a series of supportive policies and the fasterthan expected progress of global solar grid parity. However, we think there is still potential to improve gross margins in the sector, and therefore raise our 2019-21 earnings estimates an average 6-8% and our pric
3、e targets an average of 17%. Our new earnings estimates are 13-54% above 2019-21 consensus estimates. We do not think the market has priced in further margin upside potential from the improving supply/demand outlook and even potential supply shortages in the wafer and solar glass segments. We theref
4、ore think the sector PE implied by consensus estimates are overstated and believe actual valuations in the sector are still attractive.What are the long-term sustainable margins in the supply chain likely to be?Since we believe grid parity should be achieved shortly, we think the pressure for, and u
5、rgency of, further price cuts for solar products could ease. With the improving supply/demand outlook, we expect gross margins to expand further then gradually stabilise. We think there is still significant upside potential in sustainable long-term GMs for upstream (polysilicon/wafer) and solar glas
6、s manufacturers given the: 1) high entry barriers; 2) consolidation; 3) improving supply/demand dynamics; and 4) cost curves.What kind of valuation should we give the sector in the long run?The solar sector is still trading below its historical average valuations, at 15.9x 2019E PE versus the 25.6x
7、average in the A-share market, and 7.6x 2019E PE versus the 8.3x average in the H-share market. However, we believe the historical average valuations are not a good indicator of future valuations. We believe they priced in subsidies, cyclicality, oversupply, and continued price cuts. We think these
8、unfavourable factors are diminishing with grid parity and believe the sector deserves a higher valuation in the long term.Positive on segments with the highest entry barriersIn terms of order of preference across the solar supply chain, we like the wafer, solar glass, and polysilicon segments most.
9、We expect a sustainable rally in GM and valuations in these segments in the next few years. We therefore maintain our Buy ratings on our top picks in the solar sector: Longi Green Energy Technology (Longi), Xinyi Solar (Xinyi) and GCL-Poly Energy (GCL-Poly).Figure 1: Our coverage of the China solar
10、sectorAbove data as of 18 March 2019. Source: Wind, UBS-S estimatesReuters1 R codeatingPT implied price upside/downside(%)Share pricePrice Target2019EEPS2020EEPS2021E EPSNewOldChangeNew OldChangeNew OldChangeNew OldChangeLongi Green EnergySS60101229%Rmb28.01 Rmb36.00 Rmb28.0029%Rmb1.76 Rmb1.4522%Rmb
11、2.28 Rmb1.9219%Rmb2.69 Rmb2.0333%Xinyi SolarHK96826%HK$3.96 HKS5.00 HKS3.7234%HK$0.43 HKS0.430%HK$0.59 HK$0.5410%HK$0.68 HK$0.6013%GCL-PolyHK380040%HK$0.63 HKS0.88 HKS0.7321%HK$0.04 HKS0.044%HK$0.07 HK$0,071%HK$0.10HK$0.100%Chint ElectricsSS60187713%Rmb27.22 Rmb30.70 Rmb28.0010%Rmb1.78 Rmb1.733%Rmb1
12、.95 Rmb1.884%4%Linyang EnergySS60122212%Rmb6.13 Rmb6.85 Rmb6.2510%Rmb0.53 Rmb0.499%Rmb0.82 Rmb0.768%Rmbl.OO Rmbl.OO0%GCL System IntegrationSZ002506Sell-21%Rmb5.22 Rmb4.10 Rmb4.100%Rmb0.02 Rmb0.020%Rmb0.03 Rmb0.030%Rmb0.03 Rmb0.030%This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Co. Limited. ANALYST
13、CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 36. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider
14、this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.makersTier-1 wafer makers5 production cost is over 20% below tier-2/3 makers,. This makes it difficult for potential new entrants to enter the segment or to revive phased-out capacity, even if there is a 10-15% rally in wafer pr
15、ices.Figure 7: Wafer cost curve, 2019EWafer production cost (US$/W)Wafer production cost (US$/W)End-2019E wafer capacity (MW)0.100.090.080.070.060.050.040.030.020.010.000.100.090.080.070.060.050.040.030.020.010.00Tier-2/3 makersCurrent wafer ASP (excl. VAT): US$0.07/WVertical integratorsLongiGCL-Pol
16、yZhonghuanGlobal demand 2019E (128GW)oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo cc0oeiinodvrTtrococDociinodrocooocsrLdodvrrococDa)-cMLDodr-：Ti LLLCXJCXJCXICOCOmcO 寸寸寸 ging9999ZZC8886666OOOLLLSource: Company data, UBS-S est
17、imatesMidstream-cells/modules1) Entry barriers: LowWe think the entry barriers are low. 1) It is easy to purchase the most advanced cell/module equipment from either international or Chinese equipment makers.2) It takes only three to six months to add a 1GW cell/module production line. 3) The cost a
18、nd product quality difference between tier-1 and tier-2/3 makers is limited. 4) Unit capex is relatively low for modules, atUS$0.05/W.3) Consolidation: Hard to consolidateThe consolidation of the segment has never been completed, even after several solar sector down-cycles, because phased-out capaci
19、ty is revived in upcycles. We estimate the top 5/10 cell makers have a global market share of 22%/37% and the top 5/10 module makers have a global market share of 30%/48%.4) Supply/demand dynamics: Oversupply is too sticky to removeAs cell and module capacity is relatively easy to add, there has bee
20、n persistent oversupply, as whenever demand picks up supply increases even more. In 2019, we think supply/demand dynamics will be more difficult for cell and module makers, as their margins will be squeezed both upstream (by a wafer price rally due to shortage of supply) and downstream (as there is
21、still some distance to reach full grid parity, which should lead to more module price cuts).Because the availability of advanced cell/module equipment is high for all the makers, it is always easy to upgrade capacity, therefore the production cost difference between tier-1 and tier-2/3 cell/module m
22、akers is very limited.Figure 8: Cell supply/demand forecastsCell capacity (MW)2010201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020ECurrent mono as % of totalCurrent monccapacityCurrent PERC as %of totalCurrent PERC capacityChina mainlandJinkoSolar6001,2001,2001,5002,0002,5004,0004,5007,0009,00010,00060%4,2
23、0060%4,200Trina Solar1,2001,9002,4002.5003,0003,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,00067%4,00067%4,000JA Solar2,1002,8002,5002,5002,8004,4005,5006,5007,0007,5008,00060%4,20060%4,200Canadian Solar8001,5001,6001,5001,5002,5002,5005,4506,3506,3506,35079%5,00094%6,000Longi-1,0003,0004,0005,0005,0005,000100%5,0009
24、0%4,500Tongwei-2,0002,4002,3003.4005,40010.50020,00020,000100%10,50095%10,000Yingli Green Energy1,0001,7002.4502,4503,2003,2004,2004,2004.2004,2004,20024%1,000Suntech Shunfeng PV)1,0002,4001.8001,8002.0002,0003,4003,4003.4004,0004,00074%2,50062%2,100Risen Energy-5006508009501,1001,5001,5002.0002,500
25、3,00075%1,500EGing Photovoltaic Technology-tooo1,0421.2001,3001.8001,8001,80056%1,00039%700GCL System Integration-5001,5002,5003,8004,0004,00053%2,00042%1,600Zhongli Talesun Solar200tooo1,0001,0001,0002,0003,0004,0004,0004,0004,00063%2,50050%2,000Hanergy1,0002,0003,0003,0003,0003,0003.0003,0003,0003
26、,0003,000Hareon Solar Technology-9691,5501,5901,5901,4452,1102,1102,5003,0003,00032%800Hanwha Q CELLS7001,3501,3001,3001,7503,7005,2008,0008,0008,0008,00075%6,00063%5,000Zhejiang Chint Electrics-6006007007001,3002,0002,0002,00060%1,20050%1,000China Sunergy4044045045045041,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,00
27、030%30010%100Linyang Energy-2802806001,0002,0002,00050%50030%300CECEP Solar Enery Technology-15050050060060060060060060067%400Kyocera China5006501,0001,0001,0001,2001,2001,2001,2001,2001,200100%1,200Shenzhen Topraysolar1251754005336678001,0001,0001,0001,0001,00020%200CSG-200200350750900900900900Othe
28、rs3,3718,45217,49616,72317,3399,88320,00023,00031,00036,00042,00083%25,74083%25,740China mainlands total capacity13,00027,00039,00042,00047,00049,00074,04090,960113,250133,550142,05070%79,74063%71,440TaiwanMotech1,0001,2001,4001.6001,6003,0003,2003,6003,6003,6003,60042%1,5006%200Neo Solar Power8201,
29、3001,7002,1002,1202,2001,0001,6005,0005,0005,00040%2,00024%1,190Gintech9001.5001,5001.5001.8001,8001,8002,200-SolarTech-8801,0001,0001,0001,200-Taiwans total capacity2,7204,0004,6006,0806,5208,0007,0008,6008,6008,6008,60041%3,50016%1,390USFirst Solar1,8001,8001,9002,2003,2003,2003,2003,2003,2003,200
30、3,200Sunpower5907001,0001,5001,5001,5001,1001,5001,5001,5001,500100%1,500Others300300330540467400-US, total capacity2,6902,8003,2304,2405,1675,1004,3004,7004,7004,7004,70032%1,500GermanySolarWorld5006006008001,0001,3002,0002,0002,0002,0002,00075%1t50025%500Others1,5001,2001,000800500-*Germanys total
31、 capacity2,0001,8001,6001,6001,5001,3002,0002,0002,0002,0002,00075%1,50025%500JapanPanasonic5006006007501,0501,5001,5001,5002,0002,5002,500100%2,000Sharp7101,0501,2751,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,500100%1,500Others2204677139608301,5002,0003,0003,0003,0003,00067%2,000Japans total capacity1,430
32、2,1172,5883,2103,3804,5005,0006,0006,5007,0007,00085%5,500-Other regionsVina Solar (Trina, Vietnam)-6001,0001,0001,6002,2002,2002,20045%1,000Others5,0006,0008,0005,0004,0003,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00038%3,00019%1,500Other regions total capacity5,0006,0008,0005,0004,6004,0007,0008,60010,20011,2001
33、2,20039%4,00015%1,500I Global total cell capacity26,84043,71759,01862,13068,16771,90099,340120,860145,250167,050176,55066%95,74052%74,830YoY63%35%5%10%5%38%22%20%15%6%Global solar demand18,65128,13227,44740,12443,09452,00181,614102,253104,705127,785150,01079%82,21579%82,215YoY135%51%-2%46%7%21%57%25
34、%2%22%17%Implied utilization rate (%)69%64%47%65%63%72%82%85%72%76%85%862110Source: Company data, UBS-S estimatesFigure 9: Module supply/demand forecastsModule capacity (MW)2010201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020ECurrent mono asO/ 14 一$一1Current moncDouble-sided module capacity m( 2018EDouble-
35、sided sdule capacity 2019EChina MainlandJinkoSolar6001,2001;2002,0003,2004,3006,5008,00012.00015,00018,00060%7,200400800Trina Solar1,2001,9002,4002,8004,0005,0006,5007,5008,5009,50010,50067%5,6953201,000Canadian Solar1,3002,1002,4002,4003.0004,3306,1708,1109,8109,8109,81079%7,7506001,000JA Solar5001
36、,2001,8001,8003,0003,9005,5007,0008,0009,00010,00060%4,8008001,000Longi-*2001,5005,0006,50010,00015,00020,000100%10,000200800GCL System Integration-3,7005,0007,0008.0009.00010,00053%4.240400700Yingli Green Energy1.0001,7002,4502,4504.0004,0004,2005,0005,0005,0005,00024%1,200600800Hanwha Q CELLS1,000
37、1,6801.5001,5002.2004,3005.0008,0008,0008.0008,00075%6,000Risen Solar Tech-7007508001.3001,8003,1004,5004,5004,5004,50075%3.375200600Zhongli Talesun Solar2001,0001.0001,0001.3002,2003,0004.0004,0004,0004,00063%2,520ReneSola4005001.2001,2001.2001,2001,5001,8001.8001,8001,80060%1,080Eging Photovoltaic
38、-3005008001.0001,6001,6502,0002.0002,0002,00056%1.120400600Suntech (Shunfeng PV)1,0002,1002,4001,8002.0002,4003,4003.4003,4004,0004,00074%2,516Hareon Solar Technology-4281.0001,0801.2001,2001,2001,2001,2001,2001.20032%384100100CSUN4809151,1551,1551,1551,1781,2001,2001,2001,2001,20030%360Zhejiang Chi
39、nt Electrics-8609601,3421.5102,5003.0003,0003,00030%900Linyang Energy-2802806001,0002,0002,00050%5001,0001,600Jiangsu Akcome-2003334676001,0001,4003,0005,0007,00080%2,400CECEP Solar Enery Technology-15060060060060060060060060060%360Aerospace automobile electromechanics-30050070080090090090090060%540
40、BYD1005006006006001,0001,0001,5001,5001,5001,50040%600200300Dahai Group-5005001,0002,0002,0002,0002,00050%1,000Znshine Solar-5001,0001,5001,50015001,5001,5001,50060%900Others15,00030,00035,00030,00025,00021,87020,00023,00031,00040,00042,00080%24,8006,10011,800China mainlands total capacity22,78046,22355,70553