《全球-金属与采矿业-全球金属与采矿业：创新突破.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《全球-金属与采矿业-全球金属与采矿业：创新突破.docx（91页珍藏版）》请在taowenge.com淘文阁网|工程机械CAD图纸|机械工程制图|CAD装配图下载|SolidWorks_CaTia_CAD_UG_PROE_设计图分享下载上搜索。
1、SIGNATUREEquity ResearchllDecember2019INDUSTRY UPDATENorth America Metals & Mining Matthew Murphy, CFA + 1 416 863 8963 BCCI, Canada BCCI, CanadaStefan Karolidis + 1 416 863 8958 BCCI, CanadaEuropean Mining Amos Fletcher,CFA +44(0)20 7773 2225 Barclays, UKIan Rossouw, CFA +44 (0)20 3555 2620 Barclay
2、s, UKU.S. Machinery & Construction Adam Seidenz CFA + 1 212 526 2212 BCI, USEuropean Capital Goods Lars Brorson+44 (0)20 3134 1156 Barclays, UKU.S. SoftwareRaimo Lenschow, CFA + 1 212 526 2712 BCI, USPree Gadey + 1 212 526 3156 BCI, US* BARC1AYSGlobal Metals & Mining and Capital GoodsMining innovati
3、on breaking throughOld sector, new tricks: Mining innovation is advancing at speed, giving the industry access to new capabilities at progressively lower costs. Our interviews with executive teams and site-level managers, channel checks with industry suppliers, and deep dives on key innovations thro
4、ughout the value chain underscore the accelerating pace of change. Key drivers include automation, analytics, electrification, and novel approaches to mining, milling, and leaching that have the potential to boost production and reduce costs materially.Technological deflation ahead? The long-term hi
5、story of commodity prices shows that technology and efficiency gains tend to be deflationary. We apply innovation effects and diffusion rates across more than 250 mines to assess the impact on industry supply and costs. Based on ouranalysis, we expect copper supply to grow 19% overthe next six years
6、, 7% above the industry base case, keeping the market in surplus until 2026. Weseeall-in sustaining costsdropping 7%, with the hurdle price formarginal new copper supply dropping below $3/lb. We reduce our long-term copper price to $2.75/lb from $3.10/lb. In the gold sector, innovation drives produc
7、tion 10% higher than the 2025 base case and median costs fall 4%, with the incentive price of a marginal underground gold mine falling by close to 7%. Gold miners are uniquely poised to benefit from technology-induced supply growth and cost deflation given that thegold price isdriven more by macro f
8、actors than by supply/demand.Suppliers w川 have to adapt: We see several impacts of innovation on supplier business models, including longer equipment lifetimes on the aftermarket, the need to monetize miners enhanced productivity through data services, and the need for incumbent suppliers to acquire
9、 new capabilities. However, high apparent returns on technology mean there is scope for growth in automated equipment, high pressure grinding rolls(HPGRs), continuous hard rock miners, and underground electrified fleets. We see CAT (EW) as well positioned in the open pit automation market, where Kom
10、atsu (not covered) also competes, while Sandvik (UW) leads underground. Weir(OW) is well positioned in HPGRs. In continuous hard-rock mining, Epiroc (EW) and Sandvik are active in, if not leading, the technological evolution.Preferred miners: We see gold miners AEM, GOLD, and NEM as the biggest bene
11、ficiaries of innovation; we have upgraded AEM and GOLD to OW and maintain our OW rating on NEM. Among the industrial commodity players, the current innovation trends should benefit large-scale, well-capitalized first-movers BHP (OW), RIO (UW), AAL (EW), and TECK (OW), However, deflationary commodity
12、 price impacts are a headwind to the industrial commodity space, and with our lower assumed copper prices, we have downgraded LUN and FM to EW despite upside risks from M&A speculation for FM specifically. We also remain UW on ANTO given expensive valuations, no growth and little FCF over the next f
13、ive years.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity ofthis report. Investors should considerth
14、isreportasonly a singlefactorin making theirinvestmentdecision.This research report has been prepared in whole orin part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.PLEASE SEE ANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGI
15、NNING ON PAGE 79.Will miners deploy innovations?The industry has traditionally been slow adopter of innovationMining companies are not typically rewarded for innovation, as most investors in the space are looking for commodity exposure, not technology exposure. Use of new technology has traditionall
16、y been viewed as adding risk without enhancing returns, and therefore technology adoption has historically occurred at a relatively slow pace, as shown in Figure 7. The average technology was in development for 12 years before adoption began. Widespread adoption typically required 16 years, after wh
17、ich the technology would be considered ubiquitous. This history would, on the surface, suggest innovation is not an investible eventforthe space, but part of a glacially slow evolution. However, we believe the current wave of innovation will drive much more rapid change.Drivers of rapid change falli
18、ng into placeWe see a few broad drivers of innovation occurring in the sector today: Advanced offerings - The more proven, advanced, and material a given technology offering is, the more likely management is to embrace it. The technology ecosystem is now becoming sufficiently advanced and ruggedized
19、 for mining applications. The cloud and the internet ofthings (loT) are already over 10 years old. Machine learning has been in popular development for over 5 years now. Industrial adoption has already been talked about for years and advances have been made. At this point, we believe sticking with o
20、utdated technology may be less and less competitive. ROIC focus - The decade-long commodity rally of 2001-2011 led to substantial growth in assets and invested capital, butthe return on this capital was disappointing. The large mining companies have been making up for lost time by sweating their ass
21、ets - this first manifested itself via rapid cost-out (largely removing supernormal inflation in inputs such as labour, oil, and steel) and is now turning to reinvestment to ensure costs can be sustained and/or production maximized; i.e, increasing productivity of capital bases. ESG considerations -
22、 Environmental, social and governance criteria are becoming critical. Mining companies are willing to invest in technologies that reduce waterand energy consumption, emissions (both tailings and carbon), and improve safety, given the costs of non-compliance (carbon pricing, water scarcity etc). Tech
23、 sector inspiration - The mining sector has taken some inspiration from todays technology sector, where rapid iteration and growth are prioritized. In the current era of rapid technological change, the half-life of a skill set shrinks. The industry can no longer take decades to change - it has to ta
24、ke advantage of the available tools to remain economically competitive.Where are we in the process?Although we see innovation drivers falling into place, uptake remains in its early stages. Not every innovative mining company talks about innovation, but we believe 5075% of the large multi-asset mini
25、ng companies are now accelerating efforts to adopt new technologies. The first step generally consists of experimenting with a pilot ata single asset, working the kinks out of a process or helping champion the rollout of a new device/technique, assessing returns, and then deploying the worthwhile in
26、novation across all operations.Some companies have established value-creation targets in the time frame of 2021. We believe major assets with pro-active management will largely have exploited their potential by 2025. The next phase is for those technology offerings to disseminate through the industr
27、y for adoption by smaller operations and mines that have not championed implementation of new technology. We see this occurring progressively from 2021, and being largely complete by 2028.FIGURE 7Mining innovation over the last 120 years120 years of mining innovationOLnoLnoLnoLooLnoLnoLooLnoLnoLnoLn
28、oLnc 。11clzmm寸bins99ZN8866。11c6666 6666666666666G 66 0 000cI IT1 T1 T-1 I IT-1T-1T_1 I V111 T1 T-1 I I I I I rJfxj fJ CLEGEND：DevelopmentAdoptionUbiquityMiningCommunitionSeparationHydrometDataIn-pit crushing and conveying Mechanized mining Block cavingTele-remoteAutonomous drivingContinuous mining -
29、 soft rock Continuous mining - hard rock Bonds third theory SAG/AG millsHigh pressuregrinding rolls Ultra-fine grinding Froth flotationFlash flotationColumn flotationJameson flotationDense Media SeperationCyanidation Merrill-Crowe CIP/CILHeap leaching copper/goldAutoclave leaching Bio-leaching Elect
30、rowinning Solvent extraction Fleet Management Systems SCADAMachine learningArtificial intelligence120 years of declining grades - major innovation wave #1Global gradedeclines in the 1930s prompted the first wave of innovation giving risetoSAG/AG mills, mechanized mining, flotation, Merrill-Crowe, an
31、d electrowinning which quickly gained ubiquity, opening up a host of new lower- grade resources.Gold(g/t)1 Copper (%)10 -120 years of real commodity prices - major innovation wave #2 & #3Bull cycles in gold and copper have typically allowed suppliers to fund R&D, ushering in innovations with step ch
32、anges incomminution and processing as well as early digital, enterprise and automation capabilities.00612px PEsg一d -pea0000200Source: Barclays Research. Note: Column flotation had discontinuous adoption due to technology challenges.The impact of key innovationsInnovations, impacts, and outcomesWecan
33、 take the innovations from Figure3and Figure 6 and considerthe impacts they will have on operating parameters. Improvements in these parameters will then be used to influence outcomes. We have provided a conceptual map of the innovations, the impacts, and the outcomes in Figure 8.FIGURE 8Innovations
34、, impacts, and outcomesSource: Barclays Research. Note: We have not shown operator augmentation since it can lead to modest impacts in all areas.Company guidanceCompany disclosures on the specific benefits of innovation have been selective. We have collected some disclosed metrics in Figure 9.FIGURE
35、 9A sampling of company innovation results disclosuresInnovation disclosures - MININGI Innovation disclosures - MILLINGSource: Barclays Research, Company reports. OP = Open pit. UG = Underground. Many specificcompany disclosuresareforsingleassets ratherthan the entire organization.TECKOP automationT
36、ruck utilization20%AALIntelligent mineMill recovery2%TECKOP automationTruck travel speed5%AALIntelligent mineMill throughput5%TECKOP automationTruck fuel consumption(5%)AALCoarseorefloatMill throughput20%TECKOP automationTire Life6%AALNovel leachLeach recovery31%TECKOP automationTruck maintenance co
37、st(5%)AALBulk sortGrade5%NEMOP automationProductivity10%AALAnalyticsEnergy consumption(8%)BHPOP automationTruck productivity18%BHPNovel leachLeach recovery11%BHPOP automationDrill rates25%BHPNovel leachProcessing time(50%)BHPOP automationDrill maintenance cost(40%)FCXAnalyticsMill throughput15%BHPDa
38、ta miningFleet maintenancecost(20%)FCXAnalyticsMill recovery1%HLUG data miningFleet maintenancecost(8%)FCXAnalyticsMill production8%HLUG data miningLHD availability8%HBMAnalyticsThroughput10%GOLDUG automationUG mine cost(4%)NEMAnalyticsThroughput20%RSGUG data miningProductivity13%NEMAnalyticsProduct
39、ion12%RSGUG automationProductivity18%NEMAnalyticsAISC(30%)FMOP electrificationHaul cost(19%)Company TechnologyVariableChange (%)Company TechnologyVariableChange (%)We have yet to see highly detailed guidance from companies on the full impact of innovations. Some companies have instead guided to an o
40、verall value-creation figure (i.e. incremental free cash flow), Forexample: Anglo American guides to $3.5B in value creation by 2022 (versus 2022 EBITDA of $8,4B), of which $1,5bn is from operational efficiency and $lbn from technology and innovation; Rio Tinto guides to $lBin incremental FCF from 2
41、021 (versus 2021 FCF of $4.7B); and Newmonts Full Potential,/ program has delivered more than $2B in benefits since 2013, which is very substantial versus invested capital of $15B at the end of 2018. Tecks program is called RACE21 with reference to 2021, which is the year it hopes to see significant
42、 value capture, however there are significantly higher longer-term value creation goals for the 2025-2030 timeframe (not disclosed - we would expectthem to bein the billion(s) range versus base EBITDA of $5Bpa, translating to a potential 20%uplift).Distribution of benefits - focused on productionAt
43、the operational level, higher productivity tends to first translate into higher production. An existing fleet or plant can be pushed harderthrough improved utilization or recoveries or grades can be increased through optimized operating parameters. Production-based impacts: The first innovation effo
44、rts that have the best return on investment are typically focused on either process bottlenecks orthe biggest cost pools. Bottlenecks typically occur in the most capital intensive portion ofan operation. So for a high grade underground gold operation, the bottleneck istypically the mine. Fora larges
45、cale open pit copper mine, it is usually the mill. By deploying innovation to resolve the bottleneck, that piece of infrastructure can be freed up, and potentially push the bottleneck elsewhere. Cost-based impacts: At some point, pushing the bottleneck around begins to generate insufficient return o
46、n investment. At that point, you accept the limitations to throughput and the focus becomes cost-out. Cost-based impacts include parking spare equipment or reducing workforce.The mix of production and cost-based impacts will differ by site. As a rule of thumb, we would estimate 75% of productivity g
47、ains are production-based and 25% are cost-based. The lower the marginal cost of using existing equipment, the more likely it is that production-based gains will result. This has important implications for the effect of innovation on the industry.Quantifying the benefitsAs can be seen from Figure 8,
48、 each outcome is driven by several innovation impacts. Using our technology assessments (see Innovation Overviews on page 43), detailed mine cost structure models, and elements of company guidance, we can generate a base case assumption for the impact of innovation.FIGURE 10Open pit unit mining cost - pre and post innovationConvention