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1、Four short words sum up what has lifted most successful individuals above the crowd: a little bit more.-author-dateFDI在发展中国家的决定因素分析【外文翻译】嘉兴学院本科毕业论文外文翻译原文毕业论文外文翻译外文题目： Analyses of FDI determinants in developing countries 出 处： Economics.2009(36):105-123. 作 者： Recep Kok,Bernur Acikgoz Erso y 原文：Analyse
2、s of FDI determinants in developing countriesRecep Kok,Bernur Acikgoz ErsoyABSTRACTPurpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the best determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries.Design/methodology/approach: This paper investigates whether FDI determinants affec
3、t FDI based on both a panel of data (FMOLS-fully modified OLS) and cross-section SUR (seemingly unrelated regression) for 24 developing countries, over the period 1983-2005 for FMOLS and 1976-2005 for cross-section SUR.Findings: The interaction of FDI with some FDI determinants have a strong positiv
4、e effect on economic progress in developing countries, while the interaction of FDI with the total debt service/GDP and inflation have a negative impact. The most important determinant of FDI is the communication variable. Keyword FDI developing country determinant1.IntroductionTrade has traditional
5、ly been the principal mechanism linking national economies in order to create an international economy. FDI is a similar mechanism linking national economies; therefore, these two mechanisms reinforce each other. The trade effects of FDI depend on whether it is undertaken to gain access to natural r
6、esources, to consumer markets or whether the FDI is aimed at exploiting locational comparative advantage or other strategic assets such as research and development capabilities. Most developing countries lack technology capability and FDI to facilitate technology transfer and reduce the technology g
7、ap (TGAP) between developing countries and developed countries. In fact, it is suggested that spillovers or the external effects from FDI are the most significant channels for the dissemination of modern technology (Blomstrom, 1989).FDI has innumerable other effects on the host countrys economy. It
8、influences the income, production, prices, employment, economic growth, development and general welfare of the recipient country. It is also probably one of the most significant factors leading to the globalization of the international economy. Thus, the enormous increase in FDI flows across countri
9、es is one of the clearest signs of the globalization of the world economy over the past 20 years (UNCTAD, 2006). Therefore, we can conclude that FDI is a key ingredient for successful economic growth in developing countries, because the very essence of economic development is the rapid and efficient
10、 transfer and adoption of “best practice” across borders.On the other hand, in general, foreign investors are influenced by three broad groups of factors:The profitability of the projects.The ease with which subsidiaries operations can be integrated into investors global strategies.The overall quali
11、ty of the host countrys enabling environment.A large number of studies have been conducted to identify the determinants of FDI but no consensus has emerged, in the sense that there is no widely accepted set of explanatory variables that can be regarded as the “true” determinants of FDI. The results
12、produced by studies of FDI are typically sensitive to these factors, indicating a lack of robustness. For example, factors such as labor costs, trade barriers, trade balance, exchange rate, R&D and tax have been found to have both negative and positive effects on FDI. Chakrabarti (2001) concludes th
13、at “the relation between FDI and many of the controversial variables (namely, tax, wages, openness, exchange rate, tariffs, growth and trade balance) are highly sensitive to small alterations in the conditioning information set”.The important question is “Why do companies invest abroad?” Dunning (19
14、93) developed his theory by synthesizing the previously published theories, because existing explanations could not fully justify the existence of FDI. According to Dunning, international production is the result of a process affected by ownership, internalization and localization advantages. The la
15、tter is the most important: the factors based on which an investor selects a location for a project. These include the factors affecting the availability of local inputs such as natural resources, the size of the market, geographical location, the position of the economy, the cultural and political
16、environment, factor prices, transport costs and certain elements of the economic policy of the government (trade policy, industrial policy, budget policy, tax policy, etc.).2.The determinants of FDI: theory and evidenceFDI has been regarded in the last decades as an effective channel to transfer tec
17、hnology and foster growth in developing countries. This point of view vividly contrasts with the common belief that was accepted in some academic and political spheres in the 1950s and 1960s, according to which FDI was harmful for the economic performance of less developed countries. The theoretical
18、 discussion that permeated part of the development economics of the second half of the twentieth century has been approached from a new angle on the light of the New Growth Theory. Thus, the models built in this novel framework provide an interesting background in order to study the correlation betw
19、een FDI and the growth rate of GDP (Calvo and Robles, 2003).In the neoclassical growth model technological progress and labor growth are exogenous, inward FDI merely increases the investment rate, leading to a transitional increase in per capita income growth but has no long-run growth effect (Hsiao
20、 and Hsiao, 2006). The new growth theory in the 1980s endogenizes technological progress and FDI has been considered to have permanent growth effect in the host country through technology transfer and spillover. There is ongoing discussion on the impact of FDI on a host country economy, as can be se
21、en from recent surveys of the literature (De Mello, 1997, 1999; Fan, 2002; Lim, 2001).According to the neoclassical growth theory model, FDI does not affect the long-term growth rate. This is understandable if we consider the assumptions of the model, namely: constant economies of scale, decreasing
22、marginal products of inputs, positive substitution elasticity of inputs and perfect competition (Sass, 2003). Within the framework of the neo-classical models (Solow, 1956), the impact of FDI on the growth rate of output was constrained by the existence of diminishing returns in the physical capital
23、. Therefore, FDI could only exert a level effect on the output per capita, but not a rate effect. In other words, it was unable to alter the growth rate of output in the long run (Calvo and Robles, 2003).As a consequence, of endogenous growth theory, FDI has a newly-perceived potential role in the g
24、rowth process (Bende-Nabende and Ford, 1998). In the context of the New Theory of Economic Growth, however, FDI may affect not only the level of output per capita but also its rate of growth. This literature has developed various hypotheses that explain why FDI may potentially enhance the growth rat
25、e of per capita income in the host country (Calvo and Robles, 2003). However, the endogenous growth theory, which dispenses with the assumption of perfect competition, leaves more scope for the impact of FDI on growth. In this theoretical framework, investment, including FDI, affects the rate of gro
26、wth through research and development (R&D) or through its impact on human capital. Even if the return on investment is declining, FDI may influence growth through externalities. Particularly, FDI displaces domestic savings (Papanek, 1973; Cohen, 1993; Reinhart and Talvi, 1998). In a seminal paper, P
27、apanek (1973) showed the significant negative impacts of different types of capital on national savings. Based on a sample of 85 developing countries, Papanek found that foreign capital displaced domestic savings. Specifically, he showed that foreign aid, private investment and other capital crowded
28、 out national savings, and a reduction in domestic savings could lead to further increase on the dependency on foreign capital (Baharumshah and Thanoon, 2006).Another determinant, tariffs, has a positive effect on FDI if they are combined with the growth rate and openness, but they produce a negativ
29、e effect when combined with wages. The real exchange rate produces a positive effect when it is combined with openness, domestic investment and government consumption. When domestic investment is excluded, the effect becomes negative.This supports the argument that an efficient environment that come
30、s with more openness to trade is likely to attract foreign firms. This conclusion is also supported by Asiedu (2002) and Edwards (1990). In this model, investment tax and wages have a negative impact on FDI, while infrastructure and market size have a significantly positive impact on FDI. Generally,
31、 only in the case of export oriented FDI, cheap labor in terms of lower wages works as an incentive (Wheeler and Mody, 1992). On the other hand Tomiura (2003) study confirms that the positive association between FDI and R&D is robust even if firms undertaking no FDI and/or no R&D are included. In th
32、is respect, Morck and Yeung (1991) hypothesize and provide evidence that FDI creates wealth when an expanding firm possesses intangible assets, such as superior production and management skills, marketing expertise, patents and consumer goodwill.3.Data definitionThe indicators tested in this study a
33、re selected on the basis of FDI theories and previous empirical literature. The indicators tested in the panel study and cross-section SUR, are the FDI determinants for which the data have been found for developing countries for at least 30 years. Data sets related to a number of developing countrie
34、s are sometimes discontinuous for some variables (i.e. not available for all 30 years). For that reason while defining the main determinants of FDI in this study, 24 developing countries for which uninterrupted data sets for 30 years at some variables could be used Developing countries list is repor
35、ted in the Appendix. Hence, the forecasts related to main determinants of FDI in this study were obtained under these constraints. At the same time, some variables referred as FDI determinants by UNCTAC and used in literature were used in the same sampling. 4.MethodologyPanel data techniques has bee
36、n used to estimate the FDI equations because of their advantages over cross-section and time series in using all the information available, which are not detectable in pure cross-sections or in pure time series.In this study, the pool data (cross-section time series) has been created for 24 countrie
37、s over 1975-2005 periods. T denotes the number of periods and N denotes the number of observations for each period. For making the evidence more reliable, five basic models were set up for analyses. After reliable estimators were derived from SUR and fully modified OLS (FMOLS) models, convergence mo
38、del was defined; countries that capture less FDI are converging to countries capturing more FDI.5.ConclusionCompetition among governments to attract FDI has grown significantly. Many countries have not only reduced or eliminated such restrictions, but also moved toward encouraging FDI with tax and o
39、ther incentives.Appropriate domestic policies will help attract FDI and maximize its benefit, while at the same time removing obstacles to local businesses. Foreign enterprises, like domestic ones, pursue the good business environment rather than the special favors offered to induce the foreign ente
40、rprises to locate in the incentive offering regions, transparency and accountability of governments and corporations are fundamental conditions for providing a trustworthy and effective framework for the social, environmental, and economic life of their citizens. They bring huge domestic governance
41、challenges not only for the benefit of foreign investors, but also for domestic business and society at large as well.In the study the main determinants of FDI have been identified. It is possible for the countries to develop policies particular to their own economic structure by looking at the main
42、 FDI determinants. For example, when looking at the “Gross Capital Formation” indicator in country X, we can conclude that this country can develop policies to encourage the import of investment goods instead of the import of consumption goods. Again country Y can improve intra trade policies by tak
43、ing the “Openness” indicator into account. Or by taking the “Total Debt Service-GDP ratio” indicator into account, country Z can develop policies related to utilization of resources provided from external debt in productive fields in order to cover the countrys capital inadequacy. So, the role of FD
44、I in country growth can be expressed by the effects of each of the determinants or by the effects of all determinants together. In this way, the role of FDI at the country growth can be used effectively.FDI在发展中国家的决定因素分析 Recep Kok,Bernur Acikgoz Erso y，Analyses of FDI determinants in developing count
45、riesJ. Economics.2009(36):105-123.Recep Kok和Bernur Acikgoz Ersoy经济学 1210班 2010452078 沈滨杰译摘要 目的：本文的目的是调查FDI在发展中国家的决定因素。方法：本文基于24个发展中国家1983至2005年期间面板数据研究了外国直接投资的决定因素对FDI引入的影响程度。结果：外国直接投资与其决定因素的相互作用对发展中国家的经济进步具有强烈的正面影响，而对国内生产总值和通货膨胀则产生负面影响。外国直接投资的最重要的决定因素是通讯变量。关键词 FDI 发展中国家 决定因素一、介绍为了发展一个国际经济体系，贸易历来是联系
46、各国经济的主要机制，外国直接投资是一个联系两国经济的类似机制，因此，这两种机制相辅相成。外国直接投资的影响取决于它是否是开展旨在获得自然资源的投资活动，是否选择消费者市场还是意在通过投资活动扩大区域性比较优势，或者旨在获得其他战略资产如：研发能力的提高。大多数发展中国家缺乏技术能力，外国直接投资促进技术转移，并且缩小了发展中国家与发达国家之间的技术差距，实际上外国直接投资的外部溢出效应被认为是现代技术传播的最重要渠道。外国直接投资对东道国的经济有很多其他的影响。它影响着收入、产量、价格、就业、经济增长，以及发展和普及所在国的福利。它也可能是导致了国际经济全球化的最重要因素之一。因此，外国直接投
47、资国际间流动的大量增加是过去20年世界经济全球化的最明显标志之一。因此，我们可以得出结论：外国直接投资是发展中国家的经济成功增长的关键因素，因为经济发展的本质是快速，有效地转移和通过跨越国界的“最佳做法”的采用。另一方面,一般来说,外国投资者也受到了三组要素的影响：（1）、项目的盈利能力；（2）、附属公司从事的一些经营活动，可以很容易的被整合到投资者全球战略的操作；（3）、东道国对环境的支持力度。为了确定外国直接投资的决定因素已经进行了大量的研究，但没有达成共识，在某种意义上说，没有一套被广泛接受解释变量，可以被看作是“真正的”外国直接投资的决定因素。FDI研究所得的结果通常都比较敏感，这表明
48、结果缺乏稳健性。例如，劳动力成本、贸易壁垒、贸易平衡、汇率和税收这些因素都对FDI产生消极与积极双方面的影响。Chakrabarti(2001)认为“FDI与具有争议的各个变量(即，税收，工资，开放，汇率很多，关税，增长和贸易平衡)间的关系对一些信息的变动是高度敏感的”。重要的问题是“为什么公司要在海外进行投资？”杜宁（1993），他通过整合前人提出的理论发展了自己的观点,因为现有的解释不能完全的证明FDI的存在。根据杜宁的理论，国际生产是所有权、国际化、本土化的优势等一系列影响的结果。后者是最重要的：投资者是基于哪些因素才选择一个地区开展项目计划。这些包括的影响当地有效性的投入因素：自然资源、市场规模、地理位置、经济体位置、文化和政治环境、要素价格、运输成本与政府经济政策（贸易政策、产业政策、预算政策、税收政策) 等。本研究的主要目是确定在全球框架下外国直接投资的资本流向发展中国家的主要影响因素。外国直接投资流动是全球化现象的主要动力之一，因此外国直接投资的决定因素，将有助于国家的政治发展进程。二、FDI的影响因素:理论与证据过去几十年间，外国直接投资已经成为发展中国家一种传播技术与促进发展的有效途径，这种观点与五、六十年代学术、政治领域普遍接收的信仰形成了鲜明的对比，根据这些观点外国直接投