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1、如有侵权，请联系网站删除，仅供学习与交流(40)一文看懂货币流通之谜【精品文档】第 8 页每日一句（86）He who seize the right moment, is the right man.Goethe谁把握机遇，谁就心想事成。歌德Copyright 2016- all rights reserved “ “ by Andy Fan all rights reserved一文看懂货币流通之谜！这才是买不起房的真实原因？2016年08月28日 09:40来自凤凰网承 启：上一篇你那么喜欢一件事，为什么却总是做不好本 篇一文看懂货币流通之谜！这才是买不起房的真实原因？下一篇一股风暴席卷
2、全球，你的钱正变成纸！简 介：当前我们急切地需要改变楼市独大的局面，把资产从楼市引导到实体经济中，这才是一条有效的经济振兴之路。正 文：货币只有流通起来，才能产生价值，通过一个故事看懂货币流通之谜！这是一个萧条的小镇，这里的居民靠信用度日。有一天，从外地来了一位富商，他进了一家旅馆，拿出一张100元钞票放在柜台，说想先看看房间，挑一间合适的过夜。就在富商上楼看房的时候，旅店老板抓起这张100元钞票，跑到隔壁卖肉大哥那里支付了他欠的肉钱。卖肉大哥有了100元，立刻去对面养猪场付清了猪农的猪本钱。猪农拿了100元，出去付清了他欠的饲料款。那个卖饲料的老兄，拿到100元赶忙去饭店付清他所欠的饭钱（经
3、济下行，商户之间只好记账消费）。有了 100元，饭店的老板娘冲到旅馆付了她所欠的房钱。旅馆店主赶忙把这100元放到柜台上，以免富商看完房间下楼时起疑。这是富商看完房间下楼了，声称没一间房满意的，拿起100元钱收进口袋，走了。这一天，没有人生产了什么东西，也没有人得到什么东西，可全镇的债务都清了，大家很开心！这个故事告诉了我们一个什么道理？货币是要流通才能产生价值！回到现实的经济社会中，上面例子里的去旅馆看房的富商代表央行。市场需要多少货币来保证交易，就得投放多少货币。正是央行在背后以上帝之手掌控着，货币才能以稳健地步伐流通着。货币在流通中有一项基本职能是，货币作为商品交换的媒介，即购买手段。通
4、俗地说是一手交钱、一手交货。普通人老百姓互相赊账，然后陆续还钱销账，手里的钱似 乎并没有增加，就像上面小镇居民的货币循环一样。但是实际生活中并非如此：流通中的货币一旦进入银行，通过银行体系借钱会使市场上的货币多起来。货币的增 加，就是由货币创造货币产生的倍增结果。举个例子来说明：银行贷给A企业一年期贷款1000万，而A企业暂时只使用100万，其他钱照样存银行，银行就可以将剩下的钱，再贷给其他企业，其他企业又只用100万元，其他钱再存银行，如此贷存贷存循环下去，就会产生神奇的货币乘法效应，这就是货币创造。这个道理和楼市是一样的。比如我买了一套100万的房屋，我明明有100万现金，但是我不用，我只
5、拿出20万付首付，剩下的钱存银行。然后我去银行贷款80万，用来买房。等我买完房子之后，我银行里还存有80万，卖房的人拿到了100万，市场上一共就有了180万现金，比我贷款之前多了80万。同时，我还欠银行80万，但是没关系，这笔钱我可以用30年的时间慢慢还，在还完之前市场上就会一直多出来一笔钱。如果这套房一直倒手卖下去，甚至每一次都在加价卖。比如小李花200万买下房子，小王又贷款300万接手这个房子，再转手给贷款400万的小赵。房子还是那套房子，虽然在增值的过程中吸收了新的货币，但是并没有创造新的经济增量。这也是所谓的新增的货币没有进入到实体经济的主动脉中，而是掉入了一个“流动性”的陷阱里，被楼
6、市虚高的泡沫吸收了，在金融系统的血管里兜圈。那么央行将如何使出洪荒之力来控制好市场上的货币流动呢？一方面是新增货币，一方面是公开市场操作，还有就是银行存贷款利率、存款准备金率和再贴现率等货币政策。其中，印钞是最直接的增加市场货币供给量的方法，钞票是一启动印钞机就出来了，但是印出来都是大把大把的基础货币，加上货币乘数效应，那是惊人的。为什么央行要印出这么多货币，仅仅是为了刺激经济发展吗？还有一个原因是答案是中国贸易顺差太大了，流进的外汇远远多于流出的外汇。中国企业对外出口换回的 外汇是要兑换成人民币的，但是央行本来没有去收购外汇的钱，只好印钞，由于数量太大，被称为货币超发，以保持住现有的汇率。为
7、什么中国多年来市场上流通的 货币屡创新高，主要是外汇占款。央行新增的货币越来越多，除了外汇占款以外，其他的都去了哪里呢？楼市！这是个巨大的货币吸水池子，由于投资楼市有利可图，尤其是一二线城市的房价暴涨，更让大量的资金源源不断涌入楼市，形成了楼市独大的局面。这不，最近央行也意识到问题的严重性，要引导货币这股洪荒之力的去向。央行公开市场操作也好还是货币政策也好，都是对已印出的钞票的调节手段！据媒体报道，央行去金融杠杆的决心很明确，并且已经叫停了一些违规的信用贷。另外，银监会也传出消息，暂不开放商业银行参与国债期货交易的业务。此外，保监会也拟对保险公司开发中短存续期产品进行严格限制。这些似乎都是挤压
8、资产泡沫的政策，央行以及其他机构以一种比较缓和的方式控制货币的流向，不然让超发的货币一下子全部涌到楼市还是很吓人的。货币过度超发是好事吗？日本已有前车之鉴。日本在上世纪80年代后期，货币超发严重，形成一股全民的投资狂潮，各种资产价格猛增，外储也高居全球首位，本来是一片欣欣向荣之景。然而90年代初，日本 狂飙突进的经济泡沫破灭了，随后资产价格暴跌，楼市更是遭受了重创，多少人投资楼市血本无归。之后日本经济进入大衰退，日本央行无奈实行负利率，企业也不敢贷款扩大生产，攒了一点钱就还债。也许，对于每一个普通的老百姓而言，货币是财富的象征，钱越多就越富有。但对整个经济来说，实体经济创造的资产和价值才是财富
9、之源，而超发的货币不是。当前我们急切地需要改变楼市独大的局面，把资产从楼市引导到实体经济中，这才是一条有效的经济振兴之路。Copyright 2016- all rights reserved “ “ by Andy Fan all rights reservedArticle read currency mystery!This is the real reason of cant afford to buy a house?Connecting link:Previous-. This-. Next-. Introduce:We urgently need to change the cu
10、rrent property market, the dominance of the assets from the housing market lead to the real economy, it is an effective path of economic revitalization.Text:Article read currency mystery!This is the real reason of cant afford to buy a house?Only currency, to create value, through a story read the ri
11、ddle of the currency!This is the small town a depression, residents here by credit.One day, from the field to a wealthy businessman, he is in a hotel, took out a $100 bill on the counter, and wanted to see the room first, choose a suitable for the night.As businessmen go upstairs to see, the landlor
12、d grabbed the $100 bills, ran to the butcher eldest brother next door there paid the money he owes the meat.Meat eldest brother had 100 yuan, immediately go to pig paid off my pig pig farmers across the capital.Pig farmers took $100, paid out the SiLiaoKuan he owed.That feed sellers man, get 100 yua
13、n hurried to the hotel to pay what he owed for the meal (between the economic downturn, merchants have to charge to an account).With 100 yuan, the hotel owner rushed to the hotel to pay the she owed money to.The hotel owner quickly put this 100 dollars on the counter, lest they get suspicious when t
14、he businessman finish see room downstairs.This is rich finish reading room downstairs, says no one room satisfactory, picked up 100 dollars in his pocket, go.What did on this day, there is no production, there is no one for things, but the whole town of debt are clear, everyone is happy!This story t
15、ells us a truth?Money is to circulation to create value!Behind it is the central bank to control the hand of god, can money in circulation at a steady pace.Money in circulation has a basic function is, money as a medium of exchange, the purchase method.Generally pay, hand delivery.Ordinary citizens
16、on each other, and then gradually repay charge-offs, money seem did not increase, just like the currency circulation town residents above.But real life is not the case: once the currency in circulation into the bank, borrow money through the banking system will make the currency on the market.Moneta
17、ry gain, is produced by money creation monetary multiplier.As an example to illustrate:Bank loans to A one-year loan of 10 million and A enterprise temporarily use only 1 million, so other money deposit bank, the bank can be the rest of the money, then lend to other enterprises, other enterprises an
18、d only 1 million yuan, other money to bank, so the loan-to-deposit loan-to-deposit loop, can produce A magic of monetary multiplier effect, this is money creation.This truth and housing are the same.I bought a set of 1 million homes, for example, I have $1 million in cash, but I dont have to, I only
19、 took out 200000 pay a down payment, the rest of the money the bank.Then I went to the bank loans 800000, used to buy a house.Wait after I buy the house, I in the bank is 800000, sell person got 1 million, there will be a total of 1.8 million in cash on the market, much more than I loan before 80000
20、0.At the same time, I still owe the bank 800000, but it doesnt matter, the money I can also slowly with the 30 years, before also the market would have been more than a sum of money.If this suites have been passed down, even each time in price to sell.Wang and xiao li spend 2 million to buy a house,
21、 for example, 3 million loan took over the house, then transferred loans 4 million xiao zhao.House or the house, though in value in the process of absorbing the new currency, but does not create new economic increment.This is the so-called new currency without entering into the aorta of the real eco
22、nomy, but a liquidity fall into the trap, are absorbed by the property market bubble inflated, circling in the financial system of blood vessels.How the central bank will use the power of the universe to control well the currency movements on the market?On the one hand is the new currency, on the on
23、e hand, open market operations, and the bank deposit and lending rates and deposit reserve rate and rediscount rate, monetary policy.Printing money is the most direct way to increase the market money supply, money is a start printing press came out, but the print is based off of the currency, couple
24、d with monetary multiplier effect, that is amazing.Why the central bank to print out so much money, just to stimulate the economy?Another reason is that the answer is that Chinas trade surplus is too large to flow into the foreign exchange is far more than the outflow of foreign exchange.Change to r
25、eturn to the Chinese enterprises to export foreign currency will be converted into renminbi, but the central bank had no money to buy foreign currency, so we have to print money, because the quantity is too large, known as monetary super hair, to maintain the existing exchange rate.Why to circulate
26、on the market for many years Chinese currency reached new highs, mainly foreign exchange.Peoples bank of China new money more and more, in addition to the foreign exchange, where are the other?The housing market.This is a big currency pool water absorption, because investment property market profita
27、ble, especially a second-tier cities prices soaring, more let a lot of money flowing into the housing market, formed the housing the dominance.Recently, its not, the central bank is aware of the seriousness of the problem, to guide the currency the prehistorical powers.The central bank open market o
28、peration and monetary policy, the regulation of the money is to have printed means!According to media reports, the central bank to financial leverage determination is very clear, and has put some illegal credit loans.On the other hand, the China banking regulatory commission also emerged, temporaril
29、y not open commercial Banks to participate in national debt futures business.In addition, the insurance regulatory commission also proposed to insurance company development of short duration products are strictly limited.These seem to be all the extrusion property bubble policy, central bank and oth
30、er institutions to a more moderate way to control the flow of money, or make more money all at once into the property market is still very scary.Excessive currency more is a good thing?Japanese precedent.Japan in the late 1980 s, more serious, become a national investment boom, all kinds of asset pr
31、ices soared, reserves also ranked first in the world, originally a thriving scene.A surge in the early 90 s, however, Japans economic bubble burst, then plunging asset prices, the housing market also suffered, how many people invest in the property market lose everything.After the Japanese economy i
32、nto the great recession, the bank of Japan had negative interest rates, enterprises cant loan to expand production, saving a little money to pay.Perhaps, for each ordinary common people, money is the symbol of wealth, the more money the more rich.But for the economy as a whole, the real economy crea
33、ted by the assets and value is the source of wealth, while the currency is not.We urgently need to change the current property market, the dominance of the assets from the housing market lead to the real economy, it is an effective path of economic revitalization.Copyright 2016- all rights reserved “ “ by Andy Fan all rights reserved