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1、CHAPTER 5International Economic Linkages and Balance of Payments 第一页，共三十六页。PART I. BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIESA.THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (B-O-P)1.PURPOSE:Measures all financial and economic transactions over a specified period of time.第二页，共三十六页。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES2.Double-entry bookkeepinga
2、. Currency inflows = credits earn foreign exchangeb. Currency outflows = debits expend foreign exchange第三页，共三十六页。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES3. Three Major Accounts:a.Currentb.Capitalc.Official Reserves4. Current Accountrecords net flow of goods, services, and unilateral transfers. 第四页，共三十六页。BALANCE
3、-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES 5.Capital Accounta. Function: records public and private investment and lending.b. Inflows = creditsc. Outflows = debits第五页，共三十六页。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES5. Capital Account (cont)d. Transactions classified as1.) portfolio2.) direct3.) short term第六页，共三十六页。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTC
4、ATEGORIES6. Official Reserves Accounta. Function:1.) measures changes in international reserves owned by central banks.2.) reflects surplus/deficit ofa.) current accountb.) capital account第七页，共三十六页。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES6. Official Reserves Account (cont)b. Reserves consist of 1.) gold2.) conv
5、ertible securities第八页，共三十六页。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES7. Net Effects:a. Sum of all transactions must be zero:1.) current account2.) capital account3.) official reserves第九页，共三十六页。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES8.The Balance-of-payment measuresa. Some Definitions:1.) Basic Balancea.) consists of curren
6、t account and long-term capital flows.第十页，共三十六页。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES1.) Basic Balance (cont)b.) emphasizes long-term trends.第十一页，共三十六页。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES1.) Basic Balance (cont)c.) excludes short-term capital flows that heavily depend on temporary factors.第十二页，共三十六页。BALANCE-OF-PAYM
7、ENT CATEGORIES2.) Net Liquidity Balance:measures the change in private domestic borrowing or lending require to keep payments equal without adjusting official reserves.第十三页，共三十六页。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES3.)Official Reserve Transactions Balance- measures adjustments needed by official reserves.第十
8、四页，共三十六页。PART II. THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITALII.LINKS FROM INTERNATIONAL TO DOMESTIC FLOWSA.Global Linkagesset of basic macroeconomic identities which link: domestic spending and production to current and capital accounts第十五页，共三十六页。THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES
9、, AND CAPITALB. Domestic Savings and Investmentand the Capital Account1.National Income Accounting a. National Income (NI) is either spent (C) or saved (S) NI = C + S(5.1) 第十六页，共三十六页。THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITALb. National spending (NS) is divided into personal spending (C)
10、and investment (I)NS = C + I (5.2)第十七页，共三十六页。THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITALc. Subtracting (4.2) - (4.1)NI - NS = S - I(5.3)If NI NS, S I which implies that surplus capital spent overseas.第十八页，共三十六页。THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITALd.In a freely-floating s
11、ystem,excess saving = the capital account balancee.Implications:1.A nation which produces more than it spends will save more than it invests domestically with a net capital outflow producing a capital account deficit.第十九页，共三十六页。THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL2. A nation which
12、spends more than it produces has a net capital inflow producing a capital account surplus.3. A healthy economy will tend torun a current account deficit.第二十页，共三十六页。THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITALC.THE LINK BETWEEN THE CURRENT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS1.Beginning identityNI - NS = X
13、 - M(5.4)where X = exportsM = importsX-M=current account balance (CA)第二十一页，共三十六页。THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL2.Combining (5.3) + (5.4)S - I = X - M(5.5)3. If S - I = Net Foreign Investment (NFI)NFI = X - M(5.6)第二十二页，共三十六页。THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPIT
14、AL4.Implications:a.If CA is in surplus, the nation must be a net exporter of capital.b.If CA is a deficit, the nation is a major capital importer.c.When NS NI, the excess must be acquired through foreign trade.第二十三页，共三十六页。THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITALd.Solutions for Improvin
15、g CA deficits:1.)Raise national income (output)relative to domestic investment (I).2.)Increase (S) relative to domestic investment (I).第二十四页，共三十六页。THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITALD. GOVERNMENT BUDGETS AND CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS1. CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CA = Saving Surplus -
16、Govt budget deficit第二十五页，共三十六页。THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL2. CA Deficit meansthe nation is not saving enough to finance (I) and the deficit. 3. CA Surplus meansthe nation is saving more than needed to finance its (I) and deficit.第二十六页，共三十六页。 PART III. COPING WITH THE CURRE
17、NT ACCOUNT DEFICIT I. POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS UNLIKELY TOWORK:A.Currency DepreciationB. Protectionism第二十七页，共三十六页。COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITII.CURRENCY DEPRECIATIONA. U.S. Experience: Does not improve the trade deficit.第二十八页，共三十六页。COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITB.Depreciations are ine
18、ffective because1.It takes time to affect trade.2.J-Curve Effectstates that a decline in currency value will initially worsen the deficit before improvement.第二十九页，共三十六页。THE J - CURVE TIMENet changein trade balance0Currency depreciationTrade balance initially deterioratesTrade balanceimproves第三十页，共三十
19、六页。COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITIII.PROTECTIONISMA.Trade Barriers used:1.Tariffs2.QuotasB.Results:Most likely will reduce both X and M.第三十一页，共三十六页。COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITC. FOREIGN OWNERSHIPone protectionist solution would place limits on or eliminate foreign ownership lead
20、ing to capital inflows.第三十二页，共三十六页。COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITD.STIMULATE NATIONAL SAVINGchange the tax regulations and rates.第三十三页，共三十六页。COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITIII.SUMMARY: CURRENT-ACCOUNTDEFICITS- neither bad nor good inherently1.Since one countrys exports are anothers
21、imports, it is not possible for all to run a surplus第三十四页，共三十六页。COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT2.Deficits may be a solution to the problem of different national propensities to save and invest.第三十五页，共三十六页。内容(nirng)总结CHAPTER 5。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIES。DEFICITS第三十六页，共三十六页。