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1、1SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT 20018132SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPTThis document was created for the exclusive use of our clients. It is not complete unless supported by the underlying detailed analyses and oral presentation. It must notbe passed on to third parties except with the explic
2、it prior consent of Roland Berger (Shanghai) International Management Consultants Ltd.3A.4B.5201034128C.51020 30 49 I: 873SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT 20001 WTO200155: jian_ () 4SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPTA. 5SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT12 2010200320054520105 66789106SHA-C118943-2
3、00199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT50%2005, 2010341251234520051002010200127SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT5678910201070%8SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPTB. 5201034 129SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT50%2005, 20103412512345200510020102001210SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPTGDP, 199020006.1%6.2%6.8%7.3%7.8%
4、8.8%10.5%5.2%5.2%: 2001, OECD1.4%1.7%3.4%11SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPTWTOGDP +1% / +34%2005 vs. 1999+500+1.3%.+1.7% 2005 vs. 2000+4.6% / -2.1%GDP+1.15%: , 12SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT135WTOWTO (3.7%11%22.1%): 13SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT/() - - : 14SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F
5、-x.PPT 5(1/2) 80%100% - 80%: 20%525%510%6015%5/: 15SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT 5(2/2)1)5() 1)40% 300030001.5250%:200310056“”: 16SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT“WTO!” “WTO” “WTO” 17SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT50%2005, 20103412512345200510020102001218SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT1
6、0.19.18.1199419992004-1% 12.114.615.3199419992004+1% 1.92.02.5199419992004+5% 0.190.20.21199419992004+1% 4.24.14.61994 1999 2004+2% 1.52.33.3199419992004+6% 3.12.84.5199419992004+9% ()34.537.040.7199419992004+2% 0.250.571.08199419992004+12% : S&P DRI 200019SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT20059% 17
7、012925032338747550857061220059222018325819941995199619971998199920002005E2010E4204524455075265906341,0002,000+7% /+9% /+15% /: 2001, 1)1) 20SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT()22%19%10%14%18%52%51%54%15%8%8%7%6%8%8%200020052010: , 6341,0002,0006.9%6.9%16.0%16.0%8.5%8.5%7.6%7.6%8.5%8.5%8.7%8.7%12.0%1
8、2.0%16.4%16.4%21.0%21.0%9.8%9.8%9% /9% /15% /15% /( 2.5l)2.02.5l)1.62.0l)()1.01.6l)( 1.0l) 21SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT050100150200250300350400+ 3 + 2.0A6+ Premacy 2000 EM+ + + + GL / + DC+ Pride 2000+ Vitz+ Platz+ l()0.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.53.02001: +: A622SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.
9、PPT1): 2001, 31%26%24%25%38%31%26%24%25%9%15%23%28%17%18%18%22%30%35%34%0%10%20%30%40%1996199719981999200024%17%13%38%8%49%46%39%46%38%36%45%45%40%15%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%199619971998199920002000()1): 200050%23SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT1), 10% 1?: 2001, 8%55%29%20%10%1235: 1506%11%24%37%63%80
10、% : 1200 1): 200124SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT1010% (1/2)200012310102005E2010E1231236.639.8114.76639811,4702000: 5.4%2005E: 8%2010E: 12%1010%1902505001,4002000:3040%2005E:50%2010E:70%6341,0002,0002000:2005E:2010E: 2001, E25SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT1010%(2/2): 7%/.: 2000E: = 51 2005E:
11、 = 53 2010E: = 56 18253510012%8%5.4%2000E2005E2010E: 2001, 26SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT (1/2)5 “” 80,0001.3L: , 27SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT(2/2): , 28SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT: ()29SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT50%2005, 20103412512345200510020102001230SHA-C118943-200199
12、-02-15-C-F-x.PPT (1/2): , 1990 (150,000) (30,000)- 1983(150,000) 1984(100,000) 1985 (300,000) 1997 (100,000) 1998(30,000) 1992 ZX (120,000) 1993 (80,000) 1985(300,000) 2001 (50,000) (60,000)31SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT(2/2): , 2000 (50,000)- 1996 (7,000) 1996 (60,000) 1998 (10,000) 1985 (50,
13、000)SPA 1995 (60,000) 1993 (60,000) 1994 (2,100)32SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT2000(%)() A6 () Vitz/Yaris Premacy (minivan)/ Palio35 - (SVW) (SVW) (SVW) (FAW) (FAW) (FAW) (CMC) (SGM) (SGM) (TAIC) (FAH) ( MC)300600150300120803010000150-10010060605020030ca. 1,44025030090170545330300082-5705013006
14、7883%50% -60%57%-45%66%100%30%-55%-5%7%-8%-65%-50%-40(03)100(02) - -50(05)50(02)-20(01) -30(02)-20(04)50(02)-40-+400 50%, 5 40: ,33SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT2005170018402000150013001100100089082075063469014401500173017701790184018401840184018400500100015002000250020002001E2002E2003E2004E2005
15、E2006E2007E2008E2009E2010E2001-20055%2006-201010% ()%4244414448505563738496: 34SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT (1/2): , GLS1002004008001,6003,200100150200250199319941995199619971998(2001)8000+17%780002000 = 120,0002003 50%) 3412: 44SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT1996199912211814111713451210201
16、31824138972616: CNAIC, 50,00020,00050,00010,00020,0005,00010,0002,0005,0001,0002,0005001,00010050010017.8%82.2%()1996199945SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT100%,0%75%,25%50%,50%25%,75%0%,100%1)III20101): : 46SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT()()20052005 20102010()(VCD/DVD)()(IT): 47SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT()()20052005 2010 2010()() 3412()()() (, 3 Com): 48SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT: