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1、电动车：正在进行的绿色交通革命？随着世界上持续的能源危机，战争和石油消费以及汽车数量的增加，能源日益减少，有一天它会消失得无影无踪。石油并不是可再生资源。在石油消耗枯竭之前必须找到一种能源与之替代。随着科技的发展和社会进步，电动车的发明将会有效的缓解这一燃眉之急。电动汽车将成为理想的交通工具。面临能源成本居高不下、消费者和政府更加重视环境保护的情况下，世界汽车制造商正加大对可替代能源性混合动力汽车技术的开发投资。该技术能极大削减燃料消费，减少温室气体排放。许多人把目光投向了日本和美国的汽车制造商，关心他们开发混合动力和电池电动车的进展情况。丰田普锐斯一跃成为世界上销量最好的混合动力车。美国的新
2、兴汽车制造商，Tesla Motors，推出了该公司首部电池电力车，名为Tesla Roadster。截至2010年底，通用汽车公司计划推出备受赞誉的Volt混合动力汽车，而克莱斯勒公司最近已经宣布同样的计划正在进行之中。目前，中国在新能源汽车的自主创新过程中，坚持了政府支持，以核心技术、关键部件和系统集成为重点的原则，确立了以混合电动汽车、纯电动汽车、燃料电池汽车为“三纵”，以整车控制系统、电机驱动系统、动力蓄电池/燃料电池为“三横”的研发布局，通过产学研紧密合作，中国混合动力汽车的自主创新取得了重大进展。形成了具有完全自主知识产权的动力系统技术平台，建立了混合动力汽车技术开发体系。混合动力
3、汽车的核心是电池（包括电池管理系统）技术。除此之外，还包括发动机技术、电机控制技术、整车控制技术等，发动机和电机之间动力的转换和衔接也是重点。从目前情况来看，中国已经建立起了混合动力汽车动力系统技术平台和产学研合作研发体系，取得了一系列突破性成果，为整车开发奠定了坚实的基础。截止到2009年1月31日，在混合动力车辆技术领域，中国知识产权局受理并公开的中国专利申请为1116件。 在1116件专利申请中，发明为782件（授权为107件）、实用新型为334件。同美国、日本、中国以及和其他国家一样，欧洲的一部分国家也宣布了关于采用推广电动车的大胆的计划，包括财政激励、资助电池和电动车的研究、还有关于
4、充电基础设施的调配分布计划。像伦敦和巴黎这样的主要城市已经宣布了电动车共享系统，而拥有大型自有车队的公共管理部门和公司需要采购电动车。与此同时，公用事业、汽车制造商、电池生产商和学者等共同参与发起了如欧盟电动汽车工作队和EpoSS欧洲技术平台的智能系统一体化等项目。协同欧洲投资银行一起，欧盟委员会已经推出了欧洲绿色汽车计划，这50亿欧元将部分地投入在电池和电动车的研究、开发、制造、以及示范项目上。这一阵活动似乎表明，电动汽车最终将是一个重大突破。但是这次，它会在这里停滞不前吗？历史告诉我们要谨慎。电动汽车早在1883年就开始生产了比内燃机汽车早52年。然而，1913年以后，内燃机的大规模商业化
5、导致电动汽车快速下降。在过去几十年里，尝试重新引入电动汽车的努力大部分未获成功，它们仍然代表一个非常小的利基市场。电动汽车未来发展的重大问题之一是电池性能的改良速度。钗电池严重限制了电动汽车的性能，因为相比内燃机汽车，钗电池为整个汽车平添了220公斤的重量。当今的大多数客用汽车都在城市行驶，因此在通常情况下路途较短、速度较慢，所以这一问题似乎并不像欧美等其他市场那样严峻，因为那里的平均行驶路程更长，最高速度也更快。电动汽车技术的持续研发正大幅改善着汽车的性能。美国A123Systems公司，世界最大的高能钗电池生产商之一，宣布汽车每次充电后，电池能够驱动汽车行驶200公里。东芝公司最近也宣布正
6、式推出超级充电电池，而这种电池在j分钟以内就可以充满90%的电量。但是今天，未来看起来更加光明：电池技术已经取得许多重大进展，电动车有望在未来几年内大规模重新进入市场。基于适度增长情况的假定，到2050年，电动车会在新销售额中占有超过60的比例，并构成25的全球汽车车队。不过，由于现在还有一些相关技术开发和未来消费者行为的不确定性，对未来部署规模的估计会有很大变动。电动汽车的一大好处是减少排放到大气中的温室气体。当我们计算可替代能源动力汽车技术的碳减排总量时，不仅计算机车排放的CO2总量，而且还包括机车在整个生命周期的排放数量，从发电直到燃料运输时产生的CO2排放都包含在其中。2008年8月，
7、麦肯锡全球团队研究了北美、欧洲、中国和印度的乘用车行业。团队基于现有技术和商业运行可行性选取并研究了四种可替代能源汽车技术。他们通过与传统的消耗汽油或柴油的内燃机(ICE)汽车进行对比。改良型汽油和朱油动力汽车:传统内燃机(ycE)汽车采用了减排技术，如采用有助于引擎高效燃油的可变换阀门控制、通过降低摩擦节约燃料的低滚动阻力轮胎。改良型内燃机动力汽车在其生命周期中可能减少51%的碳排放量。全混合动力汽车:全混合动力汽车主要消耗汽油，而在加速时以电池驱动。汽车的动力来源主要依靠内燃机。再加上上述内燃机改进技术，全混合动力汽车在其生命周期中可能减少50%的碳排放量。压缩天然气(CNG)汽车:压缩天
8、然气汽车一般被认为是采用清洁能源的车型，但在其生命周期中的碳减排空间完全取决于天然气来源天然气运输距离越远，该车型“从油井到油箱”的排放量就越。假设天然气来自当地气源，压缩天然气汽车在生命源大周期中碳减排量和混合动力汽车接近，为55%。电动汽丰:电动汽车包括插电混合动力汽车(PHEV)和电池电动汽车(BEV)。与全混合动力汽车相比，插电混合动力汽车装有更大的电池，因此使得汽车可以在没有内燃机的辅助下所行路程更远。这种汽车可以用标准插座充电，只需内燃机提供少许动力。电池电动汽车一直要电池提供动力，而不需要内燃机机制的帮助。可虑到中国依赖谋电站发电，当今的电动汽车依靠现在的内燃机技术只能够有减少1
9、9%碳排放量的空间;然而，如果在电力供应方面使能源构成更加多元化，并向可替代能源转变的话，碳减排量会增加至49%。虽然电动汽车具有零尾气排放的特点，但是，在电力生产过程中会有排放。比如说，倘若没有采用新动力汽车技术的协同行动，中国乘用车的CO2排放水平到2030年可达12亿吨。然而，我们的研究显示，中国可以通过采用各种可替代动力汽车技术实现高达45%的乘用车减排量。对比其他的动力汽车技术，电动汽车的减排空间似乎较小。全混合动力汽车的减排量可达56%，但是电动汽车只有19%的减排空间。原因是中国仍然依靠火电站提供高达85%的电量供应。但是，如果可替代能源到2030年占中国电力供应的50%，那么电
10、动汽车的碳减排空间则可提高至49%，即大体上与其他技术的减排水平相当。原因是，中国仍然依靠火电站提供高达85%的电量供应。由此也可以衍生出电动汽车的一个另一个好处是将城市中有害的空气污染“位移”到农村地区，那里的人口暴露较低；噪音水平也较低，特别是在城市的驾驶条件。电动车的另一个主要优势是能源效率。拥有60%80%的“油箱到车轮”效率，使得电动车优于传统汽车四倍。总的来说，电动车在低速和频繁换挡的情况下显示出了强大的节能功效，这也是城市成为主要目标市场的另一个原因。电动汽车也将为软件开发商带来机遇。电力机车需要安装提示司机有关汽车重要数据状态的电子界面，包括燃料电池的使用情况、GPS导航系统的
11、每秒更新等等。由风险投资支持的新兴公司Better Place正在开发一种名为AutOS的综合信息管理系统，该系统可以告知司机最近的电池充电站的位置以及其他信息。虽然燃料电池和其他相关技术在大幅降低CO2排放量方面前景广阔，但是其商业应用仍尚需时日。然而，投资电动汽车并不意味着汽车制造商和供应商应该停止对其他技术的研究。反而，他们应该保持一种平衡的技术组合，即将电动汽车作为近期的解决方案，而将其他技术，如燃料电池等，视为长期的解决方案。因为一旦上述技术具有商业可行性时，将会带来可观的回报。感谢其能源效率，如果发电在未来将更加环保，电动汽车将有助于温室气体的大幅减少。鉴于对气候变化进行的考虑，这
12、可能被证明是一个重要因素。事实上，交通对欧盟的温室气体排放量需要负五分之一以上的责任，并且它是排放量不断增长的唯一部门。虽然改善内燃机仍有可能减少每公里驾驶的排放量，但要使温室气体排放减少50以上，就需要新的技术解决方案，如电动车。相对于传统的汽车，并在目前欧洲平均电力供应的基础上，电动汽车有50的更少的排放量。如果随着更多的绿色和可再生能源的使用，发电的碳强度持续下降，则可以进一步获益。电动车似乎终于到了发生重大突破的临界点，尤其是它能够在城市中提供巨大的环境效益。创新的商业模式即将到来，这必将提升消费者的接受度。然而，绿色电力供应仍存在一些障碍：昂贵的电池技术，有限的驾驶范围，和对于电动充
13、电设施密集网络的需要。为了克服这些障碍，创新的商业模式正在发展，以便助于转变汽车运输。外文原文：The electric car a green transport revolution in the making?As the worlds continuing energy crisis, and war and oil consumption and energy - car full with the amount of increase, decrease energy day by day, one day it will disappear without a trace. Oi
14、l is not living resources. Oil consumption in the net must be to find a substitute before. With the development of technology and social progress, the invention of the electric vehicles will be effective help ease the financial difficulty. Electric cars will become the ideal means of transport.Faced
15、 with high energy costs and rising consumer and government concern over the fate of the environment, the worlds automakers are stepping up investment in the development of alternative power train technologies that promise to substantially cut fuel consumption and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Much
16、 attention to-date has focused on advances by Japanese and American automakers in the development of hybrid and battery electric vehicles. Toyotas, Prius has emerged as the best-selling hybrid car in the world. TesIa Motors, a US-based start-up, has launched its first battery electric vehicle, the T
17、esla Roadster. By the end of 2010, GM plans to launch its much-touted Volt hybrid, while Chrysler has recently announced similar plans. The Chinese government also has the National High Technology Research and Development Program (863 Program) specifically listed, including hybrid vehicles, includin
18、g electric cars of major projects. At present, Chinas independent innovation of new energy vehicles in the process, adhere to the government support to core technology, key components and system integration focusing on the principles established in hybrid electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles, f
19、uel cell vehicles as a three vertical Several European countries as well as U.S,Japan,China and others, have recently announced bold plans for the introduction of electric vehicles. These include fiscal incentives, funding research on batteries and electric vehicles and plans for the deployment of a
20、 charging infrastructure. Major cities such as London and Paris have announced electric car-sharing systems, while public administrations and companies using large captive fleets are purchasing electric vehicles. At the same time, utilities, car manufacturers, battery producers and academics are joi
21、ning forces on initiatives such as the EURELECTRIC Task Force on Electric Vehicles and EpoSS, the European Technology Platform on Smart Systems Integration. Together with the European Investment Bank the European Commission has launched the European Green Cars Initiative, with EUR 5 billion partly d
22、edicated to the research, development and manufacturing of batteries and electric cars and to demonstration projects.This flurry of activity seems to indicate that the electric car is heading for a major breakthrough at last - but is it here to stay this time? History calls for caution. The producti
23、on of electric vehicles began as far back as 1838 52 years before combustion engine vehicles. However, after 1913 the mass commercialization of the combustion engine led to a rapid decline in electric vehicles. Attempts to reintroduce electric vehicles in past decades have for the most part been uns
24、uccessful and they still represent a very small, niche market.One of the biggest issues facing the potential take-up of electric vehicles is the rate of improvement in the performance of electric vehicle batteries.The biggest drag on electric vehicle performance comes from the lithium-ion battery, w
25、hich can add another 220 kilograms to the total weight of a car, versus an ICE-powered vehicle.Since most passenger vehicles in China today are driven in urban areas, where shorter distances and slower speeds are the norm, this may not prove to be as vexing an issue as it is in other markets such as
26、 the US or Europe, where the average driving distance and top speed are considerably longer and higher. Continued research and development into electric battery technology is generating promising improvements in performance. US-based A123Systems,one of the worlds largest producers of high-power lith
27、ium-ion batteries, Announced a battery capable of powering a car for 200 kilometers between charges. Toshiba recently announced the commercial launch of its Super Charge battery, which can be charged to 90 percent capacity in less than five minutes.Yet today the future looks brighter. A great deal o
28、f progress has been made in battery technology and electric vehicles are expected to re-enter the market on a large scale within the next couple of years. Based on a moderate growth scenario, by 2050, electric vehicles could represent more than 60%of new sales and constitute up to 25% of the global
29、car fleet. However, estimates of the extent of future deployment vary greatly, as there is still some uncertainty in relation to the development of technology and future consumer behavior.One of the primary benefits of electric vehicles is, of course, the reduction of Green house gases emitted into
30、the atmosphere. Our calculation of the total carbon abatement potential of alternative power train technologies counted not only the CO2 emissions that vehicles produce, but also emissions produced through out their entire life-cycle, from the CO2 emitted during the generation of electric power thro
31、ugh to the transportation of fuel.Over a period of 8 months in 2008, a global McKinsey team studied the passenger vehicle industries in North America, Europe, China, and India. The team examined four power train technology alternatives, chosen on the basis of existing technologies and their near-ter
32、m commercial feasibility. They contrasted them to conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles that run on gasoline or diesel.Full hybrid vehicles: Running primarily on gasoline, full hybrids are powered by a battery during acceleration of the vehicle, but draw most of their power from an
33、internal combustion engine. Full hybrids, equipped with ICE improvement technologies mentioned above, have a life-cycle carbon abatement potential of 56 percent.Compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles: CNG vehicles are normally perceived to be a source of clean energy, but their life cycle carbon abat
34、ement potential depends wholly on the source of the gas一the greater the distance the gas needs to be transported, the higher this power trains well-to-tank emissions. CNG cars rank close to hybrids in their life-cycle carbon abatement potential at 55 percent, assuming the gas comes from local source
35、s. Electric vehicles: Electric vehicles include plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV). Compared with full hybrids, plug-in hybrid vehicles contain a much bigger battery that can power the vehicle for a longer distance without the aid of an internal combustion engine, can
36、 be recharged by plugging them into standard electric sockets, and derive a smaller proportion of their propulsion from the internal combustion engine. Can be recharged by plugging them into standard electric sockets, and derive a smaller proportion of their propulsion from the internal combustion e
37、ngine. Battery electric vehicles run solely on battery power without the aid of any internal combustion mechanism. Given reliance on coal-fired plants for electricity.electric vehicles today only have a 19 percent carbon abatement potential over current internal combustion engine technologies; howev
38、er, this can be increased to as much as 49 percent if diversifies its energy mix towards alternative energy sources for its supply of electric power.Electric vehicles have zero tailpipe emissions, but there are, of course, emissions involved in the production of electricity. As an example, with no c
39、oncerted action to adopt new power train technologies, the level ofCO2 emissions from passenger cars in China could reach nearly 1.2 billion tons in 2030. However, our research showed that by adopting a mix of various alternative power train technologies, China could cut emissions from passenger veh
40、icles by up to 45 percent. Relative to other power train technologies, electric vehicles demonstrate a some what weaker carbon abatement potential. While full hybrid cars have an abatement potential of 56 percent, electric vehicles potential stands at 19 percent. This can be explained by the fact th
41、at China still relies on coal-fired plants for as much as 85 percent of its electricity supply.This can be explained by the fact that China still relies on coal-fired plants for as much as 85 percent of its electricity supply.It also can blossom into another electric car benefits of electric vehicle
42、s is the “displacement “of harmful air pollutants from urban to rural areas, where population exposure is lower. Noise levels are also lower, particularly in urban driving conditions.Another major advantage of electric vehicles is their energy efficiency. With a tank-to-wheel efficiency in the range
43、 of 60 to 80 %, they outperform conventional cars four-fold. Generally, electric vehicles show greatest energy savings at low speeds and in situations involving frequently-changing driving dynamics, which is another reason why cities are a prime target market.Electric vehicles will also create oppor
44、tunities for software developers. Electric vehicles require an electronic interface that informs the driver of the status of the cars vital statistics, from fuel and battery usage, to split-second updates in GPS navigation systems. Venture-backed start-up Better Place is developing a comprehensive i
45、nformation management system it calls AutOS.that will, among other things, inform the driver of the nearest battery-charging stations.While other technologies such as fuel cells hold great promise in reducing CO2 emissions, its commercial application remains years away. Investing in electric vehicle
46、s, however, does not mean Chinese OEMs and suppliers should stop their research into other technologies. Rather, they should maintain a balanced technology portfolio, with electric vehicles being a near-term solution, while viewing other technologies such as fuel cells as a potential long-term solut
47、ion that could yield returns once the technology becomes commercially viable.Thanks to their energy efficiency, and assuming that electricity generation will be even greener in the future, electric vehicles could contribute to a considerable reduction in greenhouse gases. Given the ongoing debate on
48、 climate change, this could prove to be an important factor. Indeed, transport is responsible for more than a fifth of the EUs greenhouse gas emissions and it is the only sector with growing emissions. While the improvement of internal combustion engines still offers considerable potential for reduc
49、ing emissions per kilometer driven, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over and above 50 % will require new technological solutions, such as the electric vehicle.Compared to conventional vehicles, and based on the current average European electricity supply, electric vehicles have 50 % less emissions. Further benefits can be achieved if the carbon intensity of power generation continues to decrease with further greener and renewable energy sources.The