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1、外文翻译中原工学院信息商务学院外文翻译复苏模式：中国应该对美国的量化宽松政策感到担心吗？美联储（Federal Reserve）主席本伯南克（Ben Bernanke）今年2月在华盛顿特区发表的一次演讲中谈到，尽管付出了各种努力，不过，这个国家的就业率回升到危机之前5%左右这一让人更宽慰的水平可能还需要很长的时间。演讲结束后，当被问及，目前这一轮政策在6月结束后，美联储是否有必要推出另一轮所谓的“量化宽松”（quantitative easing，简称QE）政策时，伯南克回答说，“美联储将会按其以往的方式做出决策”也就是通过观察各种经济指标来做出决策，其中就包括失业率。几个月以来，美国的失业率
2、一直徘徊在10%左右。如果美国的失业率持续高企，美联储出台第三轮量化宽松货币（QE）政策的可能性就将不断增加。但如果美国继续执行QE政策，将会在世界各地遭致抗议，其中的代表就是中国。前两轮量化宽松政策分别于2009年3月和2010年11月开始实施，期间，美联储大量印钞用以购买银行的债券以及抵押贷款证券购买的目的旨在刺激美国的经济发展，降低借贷成本。但是，全球各地都能听到这样的批评：第二轮量化宽松政策同样触发了全球商品价格的急剧飙升，北京的官员对此深表认同，并称，热钱因此流入了自己的国家。他们认为，如果出台第三轮量化宽松政策，也将会产生这样的结果。就这种担心的理由是否充分的问题，专家各执一词。上
3、海复旦大学国际经济学教授田素华指出，第二轮量化宽松政策对中国的影响比第一轮更大。“第一轮量化宽松政策只是通过贸易渠道影响到了中国，而在实施第二轮量化宽松政策期间，美国的银行和抵押贷款公司发放信贷的能力得到了加强，所以，货币乘数（money multiplier）（也称为货币扩张系数或货币扩张乘数）放大了中国受到的影响。”他谈到。位于美国华盛顿特区的战略和国际研究中心（Center for Strategic and International Studies，简称CSIS）的查尔斯弗雷曼（Charles Freeman）则反驳说，第二轮量化宽松政策的主要影响是政治性的。“它让北京对美联储的美元
4、长期政策颇感紧张，中国政府担心，美国会长期奉行弱势美元政策（weak dollar policy）。” 曾任职美国对中国事务贸易代表助理的弗雷曼谈到，“最近，中国对美国财政部和美联储施压，要求它们再次保证，量化宽松只是短期政策。”美国财政部负责经济政策的前助理部长、马里兰大学（University of Maryland）国际经济政策教授菲利普斯瓦格（Philip Swagel）认为，第二轮量化宽松政策的总体影响，尤其是对中国的影响，并不像人们想象的那么显著。“中国的过度反应是毫无缘由的。”他谈到，“总体来说，这个政策是美联储发出的一个信号，它不能让美国发生通货紧缩，并且将有积极的表现如果美国
5、经济未能反弹。最终，这一政策对于国内经济以及在国际社会造成的溢出效应也是相当有限的。”通货膨胀恶化然而，尽管该政策的影响相对较小，不过，对包括中国在内的很多经济体而言，溢出效应则是在一个敏感时期发生的。上海复旦大学的金融学教授郑辉认为，自前两轮量化宽松政策实施以后，在全球市场流通的美元更多了，从而降低了美元对其他主要货币的比价。他还谈到，因为国际商品是以美元定价的，所以，从石油到白糖，所有大宗商品的价格都上涨了。举例来说，3月，联合国粮农组织粮食价格指数（FAO Food Price Index）记录一揽子食品国际价格每月变动情况的指标平均为230点，比2月的峰值下降了2.9%，但比去年3月则
6、上涨了37%。与此同时，石油价格则触及到了每桶120美元的高位，这是两年多来的最高价格水平，当然，中东和北非地区的动荡也是影响目前石油价格的重要因素。然而，郑辉并不是唯一强调美联储这种宽松货币政策应该为商品价格的上涨承担某些负责的人。正如日本银行（Bank of Japan）的一份报告指出的：“从全球来看，宽松的货币政策在商品价格的迅速上涨中扮演着重要的角色，这种政策既刺激了人们对商品的实际需求，同时也促使更多的投资流向了商品市场。”对中国来说，商品价格的变化非常重要。在担心公众对能源和食品的更高支出出现强烈反应的时候，高企的商品价格让这个依赖进口的经济体感到日子很不好过。“除了继续从全球进口
7、这些商品以外，中国没有多少选择，”郑辉表示，“即使原油价格和食品价格不断攀升，中国也不太可能减少在进口这些商品上的开销。”然而，马里兰大学的斯瓦格认为，“中国自己的货币政策本身就存在问题，中国通货膨胀的最大驱动因素是中国的货币政策。中国一直让人民币保持弱势，并与美元软挂钩（soft peg），从而，导致过多的货币在这个经济体系中流通，并最终抬高了通货膨胀。”这个国家的中央银行中国人民银行一直在与通货膨胀抗争。举例来说，4月初，它出台了提高商业银行存款准备金率的措施，以收紧信贷，同时，它还将一年期存贷款基准利率提高了25个基点，这是今年第二次提高基准利率，也是自去年年初以来的第四次提高基准利率。
8、在此期间，中国人民银行还称，将允许人民币在更大范围内兑换，而不仅限于包括美元在内的七种货币。外汇交易员认为，这一举措有助于减少美元在决定中国货币价值上的权重。推卸责任对美国而言，第二轮量化宽松政策是用以提振这个国家经济的几种政策杠杆之一。“因为美联储的职责就是调节经济运行，创造就业机会以达到充分就业，所以，核心问题是，在当时，2010年，用以加速经济复苏的可用手段都是什么呢？”马里兰大学公共政策学院的麦克戴斯勒（I. M. (Mac) Destler）教授问道。他认为，美联储已经将利率保持在很低的水平了，进一步降低利率的空间很有限。“当时的另一个选择是全新的经济刺激计划。然而，从政治上来看似乎
9、并不可行。所以，另一轮量化宽松政策就是仅有的几种选择之一了。”但是，第二轮量化宽松政策的出台时机并不“走运”，政策的推出恰好在11月于汉城举办的G20峰会（G20 Summit）的前几天，戴斯勒谈到。“但是，就美国政治而言，这一时机是合情合理的。美联储不想让自己看起来具有党派性，不想让自己看似在支持民主党政府。因此，在中期大选刚一结束，它就宣布将实施第二轮量化宽松政策，而这个时间刚好处在汉城峰会召开之前。”当全球领导人在汉城聚集一堂时，包括巴西、印度和韩国在内的几个国家，与中国一起对美国的政策提出了批评。“第二轮量化宽松政策让美国在与中国关于世界经济重现平衡的争论中只能采取守势。因为中国对量化
10、宽松政策感到不满，同时，其他国家也加入了批评美联储举措的阵营，所以对美国来说，在汉城峰会上让其他国家和自己一道在货币升值等议题上说服中国就变得更加困难了。”戴斯勒认为，伯南克本来是可以通过在国内外说明出台第二轮量化宽松政策的原由而避免遭到批评的。“他本可以解释清楚的是，对美联储来说，为刺激美国经济，推行第二轮量化宽松政策的举措是必要的；此外，该政策在国际社会产生的溢出效应也是可以掌控的，而美国经济更为强劲的复苏则会让全世界经济受益。”第三次会走运吗？复旦大学的田素华告诫说，美国出台第三轮量化宽松政策的巨大风险在于，美元的信用将会因此而受到挑战。“如果全球各个国家在进行国际贸易时避开美元，那么，
11、美元就会回流到美国，这对美国来说会是个严重的问题。”复旦大学的郑辉认为，如果美联储进一步推行宽松政策，那么，中国很可能不得不让人民币升值。“第三轮量化宽松政策等同于美元的另一轮竞争性贬值（competitive depreciation）。因为人民币与美元软挂钩，所以，人民币对其他主要货币的汇率也会降低。从而，日本和欧盟等中国的主要贸易伙伴就会深受不公平的贸易劣势之苦。从这个角度来说，第三轮量化宽松政策将会对北京加快人民币升值的步伐形成压力。”但是斯瓦格表示，让人民币进一步升值对中国的经济有好处。“中国应该允许人民币升值。强势的人民币可以有效降低信贷的增长，而且能有效抑制通货膨胀。同时，即使人
12、民币升值对出口部门有负面影响，中国也有其他选择来保持其经济强劲增长。”根据“中国金融在线”（Finance China）报道，最近，中国国务院发展研究中心的一位资深研究员预测，人民币升值对出口导向型企业的影响不会像很多人担心的那么显著。虽然出口产品的价格会提高，不过，人民币升值也降低了重要部件的进口成本。至于说第三轮量化宽松政策是否会刺激热钱流入中国的问题，最近的数据表明，该政策的影响可能很小。金融时报的中国投资参考（FT China Confidential）2月份发布的一份报告称，中国外汇管理局估计，通过资本账户流入中国的热钱，从2009年的1万亿美元，减少到了目前的2，900亿美元，这表
13、明，即便在实施量化宽松政策，中国也有能力有效控制资金的流入量。或许，第一轮、第二轮以及或许会推出的第三轮量化宽松政策更会导致的结果，是世界上两个最大经济体之间的口水战。“两个国家都在为自己的问题而指责对方。”斯瓦格表示，“事实上，美国的问题并不是中国引起的，反过来，中国的问题也不是由美国造成的。”附注：本文摘自“宾夕法尼亚大学网站期刊”，发布日期 : 2011.04.13Recovery Mode: Should China Worry About the U.S.s Quantitative Easing?In a speech in February in Washington, D.C.
14、, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said that despite various efforts, it could be a long time before employment levels in the country return to more comfortable pre-downturn levels of around 5%. And when asked after his speech whether another round of the Feds so-called quantitative easing woul
15、d be necessary after the current round (known as QE2) comes to an end in June, Bernanke replied, “The Fed will decide the same way it always does - by looking at various economic metrics, including the unemployment rate, which has been hovering around 10% for some months. As the number of people out
16、 of work in the country remains high, it looks increasingly likely that the Fed will proceed with QE3, a move likely to be met with a chorus of disapproval around the world. Among the loudest critics: China.As under the first two rounds of quantitative easing (beginning in March 2009 and November 20
17、10) the Fed would print money and use the funds to buy bonds and mortgage-related securities - purchases aimed at lowering borrowing costs in the U.S. and stimulating the nations economy. But officials in Beijing have echoed criticism heard elsewhere around the world that QE2 has also triggered a sh
18、arp increase in world commodity prices and an influx of hot money into their country. They expect more of the same if there is a QE3. Experts are divided whether such concerns are justified.Tian Suhua, an international economics professor at Shanghai Fudan University, notes that the effect of QE2 ha
19、s been greater than QE1. “The first round of QE only affected China through the trade channel, while in the second round, the ability of U.S. banks and mortgage companies to issue credit was strengthened, so the effect on China was amplified by the money multiplier,” he says.The QE2s primary effect
20、is political, counters Charles Freeman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based public policy research center. “It is causing a lot of nervousness in Beijing about the long-term policy of the Fed concerning the dollar, and the Chinese administration is worried
21、that the U.S. will pursue a long-term weak dollar policy, says Freeman, a former assistant U.S. trade representative for China affairs. Recently, China stepped up pressure on the Treasury and the Federal Reserve by asking for reassurance that QE is only a short-term exercise.”Philip Swagel, former a
22、ssistant secretary for economic policy at the Treasury Department in the U.S. and professor of international economic policy at University of Maryland, agrees that the economic impact of QE2 in general, and on China in particular, has not been as dramatic as it is often made out to be. “Chinese rhet
23、oric is off the mark,” he says. “QE2 is mainly a signal that the Federal Reserve will not allow deflation and would act in greater strength had the economy not rebounded. In the end, it will have a modest effect on the domestic economy and the international spillover is also modest.”Inflation and Ag
24、gravationYet even relatively small, the spillover comes at a sensitive time for many economies, including Chinas. Zheng Hui, finance professor at Shanghai Fudan University, says that since the first two rounds of quantitative easing, more U.S. dollars have been circulating in world markets, weakenin
25、g the value of the dollar against other major currencies. Given that international commodities are priced in dollars, he says, everything from oil to sugar has become more expensive.In March, for example, the FAO Food Price Index - a measure of the monthly change in the international prices of a bas
26、ket of food commodities - averaged230 points, down 2.9% from its peak in February, but 37% above March last year. Oil, meanwhile, hit $120 a barrel - the highest level in more than two years - though the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa is the big factor influencing oil prices currently.N
27、onetheless, Zheng isnt alone in underscoring the extent to which accommodative policies, such as the Feds, should shoulder some of the blame for the rise commodity prices. As a report by the Bank of Japan notes, “Globally, accommodative monetary conditions have played an important role in the surge
28、in commodity prices, both by stimulating physical demand for commodities and by driving more investment flows into commodity markets.”For China, that matters a lot. Its import-dependent economy is feeling the pinch of higher commodity prices amid concerns about major public backlashes about higher f
29、uel and food bills. “China has few choices but to continue importing those global commodities,” says Zheng. “Even if crude oil prices and food prices keep soaring, China is unlikely to reduce its expenditures on these imports.”Yet according to University of Marylands Swagel, “Chinas own monetary pol
30、icy is problematic in the first place and the biggest driver of inflation in China is the Chinese monetary policy. The main fact is that China is maintaining a weak yuan and the soft peg to the dollar forces China to have excessive liquidity that boosts inflation.”The countrys central bank, the Peop
31、les Bank of China (PBOC), has been trying to combat inflation. In early April, for example, it raised the required reserve ratios of commercial banks and tightened credit, and it raised the benchmark one-year borrowing and lending interest rates by 25 basis points - the second time that it raised th
32、e benchmark interest rate this year and the fourth time since the start of last year. Around the same time, the PBOC also said it will allow the renminbi to be traded against a larger range of currencies than the current seven, including the U.S. dollar, which foreign exchange traders says will help
33、 reduce the greenbacks weight in determining the Chinese currencys value.Blame GameAs for the U.S., the QE2 was one of several policy levers pulled to improve the countrys economy. “Since the responsibility of the Federal Reserve is to regulate the economy, create jobs and move to full employment, t
34、he central question is, what means were available to accelerate the recovery in 2010?” asks I. M. (Mac) Destler, a professor at the University of Marylands School of Public Policy. He says the Fed was already keeping interest rates very low, leaving little room to lower rates further. “Another optio
35、n at that time was a new stimulus bill. However, it seemed to be politically unlikely,” he notes. “Another round of QE was one of the few choices left.”But the timing of the QE2s unveiling was unfortunate,” coming as it did just days before the G20 Summit in Seoul in November, says Destler. But it m
36、ade sense in terms of U.S. politics. The Fed does not want to look like it is partisan and supports a Democratic administration. Therefore, it announced QE2 immediately after the mid-term elections, which happened to be just before the Seoul summit.” When world leaders gathered in Seoul, several cou
37、ntries, including Brazil, India and South Korea, joined China in criticizing the U.S.s policy. “QE2 put the U.S. on the defensive in arguing with China to rebalance the world economy, he notes. Since China was unhappy about the QE, and other countries joined it in criticizing the Feds action, it was
38、 harder for the U.S. to get these countries to join in pushing China on other issues at Seoul, such as the currency appreciation.”Destler reckons that Bernanke made a mistake in not giving a serious international justification of QE2 in time, hence putting himself under international criticism. He s
39、hould have explained that it was necessary for the Federal Reserve to implement QE2 to stimulate the U.S. economy, that the international spillover was manageable and the world would benefit from a stronger U.S. recovery,” he says.Third Time Lucky?Tian of Fudan University warns that the big danger o
40、f a QE3 is that it will challenge the credibility of the U.S. dollar. “If countries around the world bypass the U.S. dollar during international trade, dollars will flow back to the U.S and that would be a serious problem for the U.S.,” he says.Zheng of Fudan University notes that in the event of fu
41、rther easing by the Fed, China will most likely have to allow the RMB to appreciate. “A third round of QE equals another round of competitive depreciation of the U.S. dollar,” he says. “Since the RMB maintains a soft peg to the dollar, the RMBs exchange rate will also depreciate against other major
42、currencies. Chinas major trading partners, such as Japan and the European Union, will suffer from an unfair trade disadvantage. In this sense, a third round of QE would exert additional pressure on Beijing to allow a faster pace of the RMB appreciation.”Enabling the RMB to appreciate further than it
43、 has in recent months might be good for Chinas economy, adds Swagel. “China should allow the RMB to appreciate,” he says. “A stronger Yuan will effectively reduce credit growth and curb inflation. Even if allowing for faster currency appreciation will have a negative impact on the export sector, Chi
44、na can still take action to keep its economy strong. ”According to online information provider Finance China, a senior researcher with the Development Research Center of Chinas State Council recently predicted that the impact of an RMB appreciation on export-oriented enterprises would not be as big
45、as many fear. Though the price of exports would increase, an appreciation would also lower the cost of imports.As for whether QE3 could trigger more hot money flowing into China, recent data suggests the impact might be muted. A report published in February by FT China Confidential said the Chinese
46、State Administration of Foreign Exchange estimates that the amount of hot money currently reaching China through the capital account has decreased to around US$290 billion from US$1 trillion in 2009, indicating that even with the QEs, China has been able to handle the inflows effectively.Perhaps mor
47、e telling about QE1, QE2, and the prospect of QE3, is the war of words unleashed by the worlds two largest economic heavyweights as a result. “The two countries are blaming each other for their problems,” says Swagel, “However, the fact is that China is not the main cause of U.S. problems and vice versa.”教师评语教师评语：教师评语应围绕选题是否符合专业要求、语言是否通顺、逻辑是否合理、有无明显翻译错误等内容来写，必须手写，不准打印，100字左右。教师签名：2012年01月02日10