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1、 DOES THE 21ST CENTURYBELONG TO CHINA?KISSINGER AND ZAKARIA VS. FERGUSON AND LITHE MUNK DEBATE ON CHINAEDITED BY RUDYARD GRIFFITHS AND PATRICK LUCIANI Copyright 2011 Aurea FoundationHenry Kissinger interview copyright 2011 John GeigerDavid Li interview copyright 2011 John GeigerAll rights reserved.
2、No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.Distribution of this electronic edition via the Int
3、ernet or any other means without the permission of the publisher is illegal. Please do not participate in electronic piracy of copyrighted material; purchase only authorized electronic editions. We appreciate your support of the authors rights.This edition published in 2011 byHouse of Anansi Press I
4、nc.110 Spadina Avenue, Suite 801Toronto, ON, M5V 2K4Tel. 416-363-4343Fax 416-363-1017www.anansi.caLIBRARY AND ARCHIVES CANADA CATALOGUING IN PUBLICATIONDoes the 21st century belong to China? : the Munkdebate on China / Henry Kissinger . . . et al. ; edited byRudyard Griffiths and Patrick Luciani.(Th
5、e Munk debates)eISBN 978-1-77089-063-31. China History 21st century. I. Kissinger, Henry,1923 II. Griffiths, Rudyard III. Luciani, PatrickIV. Series: Munk debatesDS779.4.D63 2011951.06C2011-904008-5Library of Congress Control Number: 2011929943Cover design: Alysia Shewchuk We acknowledge for their f
6、inancial support of our publishing program the Canada Council for the Arts, the Ontario Arts Council, and the Government of Canada through the Canada Book Fund.INTRODUCTION BY PETER MUNKOn the evening of June 17, 2011, we held our seventh Munk Debate at Torontos Roy Thomson Hall. The auditorium, whi
7、ch seats 2,700, was filled to capacity, and there were thousands of people following the debate online. It was thrilling for me to be part of an event that in only three years has captured a wide and growing audience across Canada and beyond.When we started holding these debates three years ago, it
8、was our intention to bring the best minds to Toronto to grapple with some crucial issues facing the world. Our goal was to elevate the quality of discussion on important global matters for the benefit of Canadians. I am proud to say that through the work and efforts of the Aurea Foundation Board we
9、have been able to achieve this, and here I especially want to credit Rudyard Griffiths for his vision and management. On June 17 he once again acted as host and moderator of the debate.I have always believed that clarity is best achieved by inviting the finest thinkers to speak to us when they do no
10、t see eye-to-eye. There is nothing wrong with describing and discussing crucial issues, but debating them is better. The world is no different from any other object in that we can make more sense of it by viewing it from different angles.I think the best way to achieve this clarity is through a form
11、at that challenges informed and articulate thinkers to go beyond telling us what they know, or think they know. Talking about the times in which we live is one thing, but to stand up and defend ideas when they are being challenged by equally informed and articulate opponents who think they know bett
12、er, is another. Which was what the debaters did on the evening of June 17 at Roy Thomson Hall. The topic was China. We in the West have traditionally focused on the Near East, and understandably so, but the last two decades compelled us to increasingly turn our attention to the Far East. China has s
13、eemingly come out of nowhere to play an important economic and political role around the world. It wasnt out of nowhere, of course. Chinas growth started with the countrys shift to the market economy in 1978. Even taking this shift into account, an average growth of 10 percent per annum by the early
14、 1990s was so impressive as to seem aberrant or unreal. With new-found economic strength, and especially since they gained this strength at a time when Europe and the United States were perceived to be losing theirs, China has also taken its place on the international stage as a leading political po
15、wer. The debate in Toronto was about determining whether or not China will be able to sustain that momentum and become the dominant global force of the 21st century.We were privileged to have four of the most insightful thinkers on the subject. First, I felt truly humbled to introduce Dr. Henry Kiss
16、inger, who had graciously accepted our invitation to participate. There isnt much I could say about Dr. Kissinger that readers wouldnt already know. He is not only a brilliant student and teacher of history, but more importantly, he is a maker of history. We remember him for his role in opening up C
17、hina for the West when he was a member of President Richard Nixons cabinet as Secretary of State. He received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1973 for his extraordinary work on the international stage, and he received the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 1977. That evening we were witnessing a bit of histo
18、ry as well. I learned that Dr. Kissinger had never taken part in a public debate, so this really was a special occasion and an honour for all of us at The Munk Debates. He came to Toronto following the recent publication of his monumental book, On China, and was arguing against the resolution.Joinin
19、g Dr. Kissinger was the young rising international star: Fareed Zakaria. I am sure most readers have seen Fareed as the host of Fareed Zakaria: GPS, CNNs flagship program on international affairs. Named by Foreign Policy as one of the top 100 global thinkers, he is also the editor-at-large for Time
20、magazine, and the author of a number of books, including the bestsellers The Future of Freedom and The Post-American World. At the age of twenty-eight he was editor of the prestigious journal Foreign Affairs. He then went on to Newsweek, where he wrote a number of award-winning articles, including h
21、is famous October 2001 piece, “The Politics of Rage: Why Do They Hate Us?” And last year Fareed earned an Emmy nomination for his interview with Chinas Premier Wen Jiabao.Arguing for the resolution was Niall Ferguson, who took part in the first Munk Debate in 2008. Not only is Professor Ferguson a d
22、istinguished economic historian at Harvard University, he is also the bestselling author of numerous books. His latest, entitled Civilization: The West and the Rest, will be published in North America in November 2011.Professor Fergusons understanding of the world economy is made accessible by his s
23、kills in bringing that knowledge to a wide audience. Recognizing the key factors that drive economic growth, his thesis was that China possesses all that is necessary to propel it to international pre-eminence. What added special piquancy to the evening was that Professor Ferguson is Dr. Kissingers
24、official biographer.I also welcomed Dr. David Daokui Li, who joined Niall on the pro side. Not only does he know intimately the factors that have made China an economic powerhouse, he also brought a unique perspective and personal knowledge of China. His childhood was spent in Sichuan province, as a
25、 result of his parents being displaced to the countryside during the Cultural Revolution. Under such conditions he managed to earn his doctorate in economics at Harvard University and currently holds a number of teaching positions in the United States and in his home country. He is the Director of t
26、he Center for China in the World Economy at the Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management in Beijing. He is also a delegate to the Beijing Peoples Congress, one of three academic members of the monetary policy committee of the Central Bank of China, and a member of the World Economic Fo
27、rum in Davos.Im certain that youll enjoy this printed version of these exciting few hours.Peter Munk Founder, the Aurea FoundationToronto, July 2011Does the 21st Century Belong to China?Pro: Niall Ferguson and David LiCon: Henry Kissinger and Fareed ZakariaJune 17, 2011Toronto, CanadaTHE MUNK DEBATE
28、 ON CHINARUDYARD GRIFFITHS: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Roy Thomson Hall in Toronto, Canada. We are here for the Munk Debate on China. My name is Rudyard Griffiths, Im the co-organizer of the Munk Debates along with my colleague, Patrick Luciani, and it is my privilege to be your moderator once
29、 again. First, I want to welcome the thousands of people watching this debate online, live on the Internet, on and . Its terrific to have you as a part of these proceedings. A warm hello also to the millions of people watching, reading, and listening to this debate, everywhere from the Australian Br
30、oadcasting Corporation down under to C-SPAN throughout the United States, to the Peoples Daily Online in China, and through our international media partnership with the Financial Times of London and its prestigious China Confidential research unit. Hello, too, to Canadians coast-to-coast, who are li
31、stening and watching everywhere from CBC Radios Ideas program to the Canadian Public Affairs Channel (CPAC), and on the network where I host a daily television show, Business News Network (BNN). Its great to have you as part of this debate. And finally, as I look around this hall, which is filled to
32、 capacity, Id like to welcome the 2,700 people who have come out for a second time for the Munk Debates at Roy Thomson Hall. Everyone associated with this project thanks you for your support for the simple idea behind this series, which is dedicated to creating opportunities like this, where we can
33、debate the big geopolitical issues that are changing Canada and changing the world. The success of this debate series, its ability to bring to Toronto some of the worlds sharpest thinkers, would not be possible without the philanthropic creativity and generosity of two individuals. Id like all of yo
34、u to join me in a round of applause for our hosts, the co-founders of the Munk Debates, Peter and Melanie Munk. Bravo you two. Were going to keep at this. Now, for the moment we have all been waiting for. We have the motion before us: Be it resolved the 21st century will belong to China; now, all we
35、 need is our debaters centre stage. Lets have a big round of applause for the two debaters who will be arguing for the motion, Niall Ferguson and David Li. Now, lets welcome their formidable opponents, Fareed Zakaria and Dr. Henry Kissinger. Niall Ferguson is well known to those familiar with the Mu
36、nk Debates. During the first debate in 2008, he and Charles Krauthammer bested current National Security Council member Samantha Power and the late Richard Holbrooke on the motion: Be it resolved the world is a safer place with a Republican in the White House. That was a very spirited debate. Since
37、2008, Niall Ferguson has added to his raft of internationally best-selling books with the publication of The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World and Civilization: The West and the Rest. He holds a variety of prestigious professorships and lectureships everywhere from Oxford University
38、to Harvard University to the London School of Economics. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome Niall Ferguson. Our next debater joins us from Beijing, China, where he is the director of the Center for China in the World Economy at the Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management in Beijing. In man
39、y ways his personal biography mirrors Chinas rise. His family was displaced by the Cultural Revolution; David has memories of this, although he was only a four-year-old boy. Twenty-eight years later he received a Ph.D. from Harvard University. He is now one of only three academic members of the Mone
40、tary Policy Advisory Committee of the Central Bank of China. One indication of the key role that he plays representing a new generation of thought leadership in China is this: David, an economist, has more than three million followers on the Chinese equivalent of Twitter. Fareed Zakaria is familiar
41、to many Canadians. Hes the host and the driving force behind CNNs flagship international affairs program, Fareed Zakaria: GPS. You have also read his column in Time magazine, where he is editor-at-large, and he writes for the Washington Post. He is the author of the internationally acclaimed books T
42、he Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad and the recently updated Post-American World: Release 2.0. As you will hear during this debate, Fareed is one of todays most thoughtful and provocative U.S. thinkers on Americas role in the world and the effect of rising international powe
43、rs. Fareed Zakaria, it is a pleasure to have you here. Our final debater has played a central role in global affairs for the last half-century. He has been honoured with the Nobel Peace Prize for his public service, and he was presented with the Presidential Medal of Freedom. He is the single indivi
44、dual here today who can interpret Chinas rise, given his unique contribution to bringing China back into the community of nations after its Cultural Revolution. And, participating in his first public debate on China or any other subject, he makes history again. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome t
45、o the Munk Debates the 56th secretary of state of the United States, Dr. Henry Kissinger. Now, lets briefly run through how the debate will unfold. Each of our debaters will have six minutes for their opening statements to make their case for and against the motion. After the opening statements, wer
46、e going to have our debaters cross-examine each others views and opinions, and then were going to bring the audience into the conversation. We will have questions from notable people in the audience, which incudes students from the Munk School of Global Affairs, and finally we will have a raft of qu
47、estions from our own web site, Facebook, and Twitter, which I will weave into the conversation. So how did the audience vote before coming into this debate? Did you believe the 21st century will belong to China? The numbers are interesting: 39 percent believe the century could be owned by China, 40
48、percent voted against the motion, and 21 percent are undecided so, theres a swing vote in play already. I am going to call on Niall Ferguson to get us started. NIALL FERGUSON: Thank you Rudyard, and thank you, ladies and gentlemen. I believe the 21st century will belong to China because most centuries have belonged to China. The 19th and 20th centuries were the exceptions. Eighteen of the last twenty centuries saw China as, by some margin, the largest economy in the world. Let me begin with some