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1、影响中国的人民币汇率变动对农产品出口的影响：出口到日本的案例研究Longjiang Chen摘要本文试图考察变化和波动之间的关系来分析中国的人民币汇率和其农业出口。建立了一个模型来分析人民币汇率影响农产品出口所面临两个运动约束包括中国特定的汇率制度和存在技术性贸易壁垒的农业贸易。该模型表明,民币汇率的影响运动依赖汇率水平的比较(升值或折旧)效应和汇率风险的效果。以中国农产品出口日本为例,实证检验以中国对日本农产品出口为例，进行了实证检验。一个模型（1，1）指定衡量汇率波动和日常生活的回归与结构打破虚拟变量估计基于单位根检验结果与结构。结果表明人民币兑日元升值将促进出口增长，与积极汇率波动促进农
2、产品出口到日本而阻碍出口。然而，汇率波动对出口影响远小于汇率水平，从而导致消极的净出口政策对农产品出口的影响实证结果进行了讨论。关键词：汇率；农产品出口；中国前言改革开放以来中国在2005年七月人民币汇率形成机制，人民币已波动频繁。在这方面，密切关注了对人民币汇率的影响波动对中国出口的影响。由于每个行业都有自己的特点，其汇率变动可能对不同的行业有不同的影响。因此，克莱因（1990）指出，影响实际汇率波动对出口贸易在商品的水平下必须进一步调查，。一般来说，农产品有相对于制成品，和为较低的初始投资成本，存在的长期合同等这样的行业性质特殊。人们普遍承认，影响汇率变动对农产品贸易的不同，对制造品贸易也
3、不同。经谢尔登和马克克劳斯顿（2002）证实，相对于其他行业，实际汇率不确定性具有较显著的负向影响农产品贸易的作用。至于中国，什么是影响人民币升值和相关的风险volatility1其农业出口？一个对这一问题的研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。一方面，目前还没有出现明确的理论和实证结论对贸易影响汇率波动的经济共同体。此外，大量的研究探讨贸易影响汇率波动在发达国家，忽略了对它们在中国这样的发展中国家的研究。发展中国家与发达国家不同的特点，如不同的汇率制度，缺乏完善的远期外汇市场，缺乏有效的金融衍生工具等，这都严重限制出口商的行为。在中国，有两点重要的限制：第一，中国运行特定的外汇管理体制；其次，中国农
4、产品出口遇到了严重的技术性贸易壁垒，卫生和植物检疫。这意味着贸易影响汇率变动在发展中国家不应该被忽视；另一方面，当前人民币升值会带来一定的负面影响，中国的农业经济和农民的福利（李岗，2006），而在中国大多数人口仍然是农民。因此，探讨影响人民币汇率变动对农产品出口具有极其重要的现实意义。基于上述认识，本文，以中国对日本农产品出口为例，试图解释人民币汇率水平的变化和波动对中国农产品出口的影响。正文1.文献回顾汇率变动对农产品贸易影响的研究首先由舒（1974）展开，交换率汇率波动被定义为相关的风险与意外的动作的汇率（麦肯齐，1999）。基本参数作为一个重要的变量在经济分析美国农业部门。在他开创性的
5、研究中，有相当数量的定量评估的研究影响名义和实际汇率对农产品贸易的案例。不同的实证方法和汇率变量中都使用了这些研究，因此达成共识：汇率波动大大阻碍了农业贸易流动，相比其他贸易，这种负面效应更明显。一些实证研究比较了不同的汇率变动对经济包括在农业部门和其他部门的影响。这些研究得出了类似的结论，即：总的来说，汇率的变化对农产品贸易不利影响显著。经Gervais,Larue &奥利弗(2004),马修,特里和Agapi(2006)调查，汇率变动对农产品贸易的影响在部门和产品级两方面。Susanti（2001）研究了印度尼西亚的总出口额和五个主要农产品出口显示，他们对印度尼西亚汇率变动均有显著的不利影
6、响。从早期的调查，罗伯特和李察（1981）对美国的小麦，棉花和大豆最近的调查，及辜（2006）和李与李（2005）对大豆的调查，研究人员调查了一些国家对其主要农业贸易流对汇率变动的影响，包括大麦，小麦，猪肉，棉花，咖啡，可可，生猪，玉米等。这些研究都支持农产品贸易的分类对汇率变动有负面影响这一结论。然而，一些研究（如安达加西亚，1989；abdulkudos，2003）表明，在一定的农业产品分类下，汇率变动各不相同的国家影响不同。在一个时代的浮动汇率制度下，在这样一个时代的浮动汇率制度,有截然不同的观点在理论上如果波动性汇率风险阻碍国际贸易:一些模型的负面假设找到支持而其他模型导出了支持积极的
7、假说。实证研究的结果都是集中在交易所波动率均不让人困惑,但他们大多支持阴性效果。谢尔登(2003),Gervais,Larue和奥利弗表明,(2004)的风险等汇率波动明显减少农业贸易流程。然而,金,想和辜(2003)显示的影响是否汇率波动是积极的还是消极的相关测量的影响波动和第三世界国家。许多中国学者已经在调查的影响人民币汇率变化对中国农产品贸易集中在两个方面。一个是估计J-curve效果和汇率弹性的进口和出口的农业产品,包括Cai的早期研究(1994),顾,李和阐释(1994)和最近的研究的歌(2005)和朱田和小王(2006)。另一个是模拟人民币升值的影响对中国农产品进口和出口在宏观模型
8、,重点在不同的环境影响。尽管上述的研究取得了较大的成功,依然存在一些应注意的问题。第一、理论模型的基础上对发达国家的假设并不一定适合发展中国家,因此需要在发展这些模型假设的基础上,发展中国家;第二,要注意可能产生过程中数据的结构打破，为了防止“伪协整”;第三在未来的研究,发展中国家应受到更多的关注。发展中国家与发达国家之间的汇率制度仍有一个大的差异, 在发展中国家的经济发展农业出口扮演了重要的角色。2.模型本节将建立一个模型的基础上。双方交换的影响水平变化的风险和汇率波动将纳入模型。3垄断竞争模型下面是我们目前的基本垄断竞争模型的出口公司。让中国的出口国和进口国的外国国家。一个代表家庭性的外国
9、国家消费差异产品，安装在单位区间0，1 。在货物，货物将被编入索引的他们用自回归残差，移动平均标准偏差，拱实证测度波动的汇率风险，并估计方程和无第三个国家的影响。中国的农产品，在0 z n的产品与国外产品z* 1，其中n z* 1。假设国内外商品市场细分。垄断竞争的公司有能力进行价格歧视的国内价格，不同于国内销售价格为出口。基于贝茨与德弗罗（2000）的市场定价模型，我们认为，出口公司出售的单位小时产量在国内市场和出口的到外国。4.实证估计4.1实证规范捕捉动态，以下方和莱（2001），实证框架1这一结论是特别相关的模型假设：两个出口都好进口原材料的价格外币。指定为一个自回归分布滞后（日常生活
10、）进程结合模型（1 , 1）模型用于测量汇率波动风险。（3.19）方程（3.17）（3.19）构成的两步估计所产生的（3.18）（3.19），然后使用（3.17）估计其出口的影响。方与Miller（2004）指出，统计意义与符号的估计和系数方程（3.17）提供了一个简单的和直接的试验研究之间关系的实际出口增长和汇率贬值及其波动。如果 ，那么汇率贬值改善出口。如果 ，交换波动降低出口，通过出口的反应，知觉风险，而它刺激出口。方程也表明，净效果依赖于比较汇率水平变化的影响，汇率风险的影响。4.2数据来源和加工本文采用双边农产品从中国出口到日本的一个月从一月2002至四月2007。经季节性调整的农产
11、品出口一月2002月收入与基地等于名义出口收益的美元放气的消费物价指数（消费物价指数）和美国的出口价格指数。消费者物价指数从国际金融和贸易方向的国际货币基金组织，名义收入和出口价格指数月度统计报告对中国农产品进出口。每月平均双边名义汇率，定义为人民币价格日本的日圆，计算的基础上的双边名义汇率人民币兑美元和日元兑美元。数据来自卫星的美国农业部。汇率波动计算模型（1 , 1）模型。国外价格水平为日本的消费物价指数从省统计局日本的国际事务和通信。我们还计算采购价格指数农产品2002月一月基地从中国经济统计公报和取代它的国内投入价格指数。价格指数是取代进口投入世界农业原材料从国际货币基金组织的条件。人
12、数限制在频率的措施是采用量化的技术性贸易壁垒/卫生和植物检疫措施，数量的基础上并通知世贸组织农业贸易的日本。4.3单位根检验和参数估计非平稳和单位根检验进行，避免虚假回归。本试验遵循步骤：第一，所有的数据变量进行了检验无结构变化；其次，那些非平稳变量检验中得到进一步测试采用单位根检验结构突变造成的佩龙（1989）。单位根检验结果表明，所有的变量都是固定的，名义上的汇率，股价指数为国内投入价格指数为进口输入变量break1固定结构。因此，我们介绍结构断裂虚拟的回归方程。在这些打破傻瓜，并分别截距和斜率假人名义汇率，并分别拦截虚拟的价格指数国内投入和投入。4.4调查结果和进一步的讨论结果表明，双边
13、名义汇率及其波动风险是重要的影响因素，中国对日本的农产品出口。一般，汇率具有预期的积极效果，这意味着人民币对日元贬值会增加农产品出口，而升值降低出口。名义汇率水平的意义5滞后表明汇率变动的影响持续相对长一段长达五个月。这个坐标的特点，生产周期长，长期提供大多数农产品。汇率波动的风险，一般来说，具有显著的正向影响农产品出口，表明汇率风险将增加出口而负减少出口通常预期。汇率风险变量与3个滞后和5滞后明显地表现出积极的迹象，而变量6个滞后显示显着消极的迹象，这意味着，一方面，农业出口商可能是危险的首选和增加出口的面对增加汇率风险；另一方面，作为德格洛瓦（1988）指出，高风险厌恶的出口商，担心急剧下
14、降的出口收入，可增加出口时面临的风险增加的汇率，其他低程度的风险厌恶的出口商，然而，因为较低的出口收入减少出口的风险增加相关。此外，上述结果表明，汇率水平的变化使快速和持久的影响的农产品出口到日本，尤其是强烈的影响在短期内，而汇率风险似乎有一个强有力的影响在一个较长时间不是一个短期。因此，在短期内，汇率的影响运动对农产品出口是完全确定的汇率变动水平，但在一个相对较长的时期，共同的变化对汇率水平与波动的风险。净影响汇率对出口依赖农业的比较的影响，汇率水平的变化及其波动的风险。结论本文初步探讨关系变化和波动(风险)的中国人民币汇率和其农业出口。实证结果表明,人民币升值的汇率形成机制改革后,2005
15、年7月,具有显著的负面影响,对中国农产品出口而汇率波动的风险,总的来说,具有显著的正面影响。然而,汇率风险效果来说要小得多的汇率水平变化,汇率波动的影响最终都有一种占主导地位的后者,这意味着人民币升值仍然是一个主要的因素在决定中国农业出口到日本。因此,人民币汇率的负面影响运动在中国农业出口不应被低估。这很重要,政府调整其政策。由于汇率政策调整困难,政府开始从农业政策调整以减少或缓解汇率波动的负面效应。根据主导的负面效应的人民币升值压力,政策调整,在短期内是进一步提高农业出口的支持系统,降低单位成本的农业出口。而长期的政策调整在于提高服务质量、改善农业产品的技术进步,这将提高价格竞争力质量竞争力
16、。此外,特别注意到汇率风险。虽然本文发现名义汇率波动的风险产生积极影响中国农产品出口到日本,这种可能性,大多数中小制造商,将风险降低出口令人厌恶的面对的风险增加汇率,也不能除外,因为总体数据的使用。因此,政府也不能忽视外汇市场稳定。与此同时,提供政策指导和金融工具的外汇风险令人厌恶的同样重要的是要减少出口商汇率风险和保持稳定农业出口增长。The Effect of Chinas RMB Exchange Rate Movement on ItsAgricultural Export: A Case Study of Export to JapanLongjiang ChenSchool of
17、Economics and Management,Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering,Guangzhou, ChinaAbstractThis paper attempts to examine the relationship between changes and volatility ofChinas RMB exchange rates and its agricultural export. A model is constructed toanalyze the effect of RMB exchange rate
18、 movements on agricultural exports facing two constraints including Chinas particular exchange rate system and TBT / SPS inagricultural trade. The model reveals that the net trade effect of RMB exchange ratemovements relies on the comparison of exchange rate level change (appreciation ordepreciation
19、) effect and exchange rate risk effect.Taking Chinas agricultural exports to Japan as a case, this paper makes an empirical examination. A GARCH (1, 1) model is specified to measure the exchange rate volatility and ADL regression with structural break dummy variables is estimatedbased on the results
20、 of unit root test with structural break. The results show RMBdepreciation against yen will promote export growth while appreciation hinder export,and exchange rate volatility positively stimulates agricultural exports to Japan. However, the effect of exchange rate volatility on the export is much s
21、maller than that of exchange rate level, which leads to a negative net effect to the export. The policy implications among the empirical results are also discussed.Keywords: Exchange rate; Agricultural export; ChinaIntroductionSince the reform of Chinese RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in July
22、2005, Chinese RMB has been in frequent fluctuations and appreciating gradually. Inthis context, close attention has been paid to the impact of the RMB exchange ratefluctuations on Chinas export. Since each industry has its own characteristics, theexchange rate movements may have different effects on
23、 different industries. Therefore,as Klein (1990) pointed out, the impact of real exchange rate fluctuations on export trade must be further investigated in the commodity level. In general, compared to manufactured goods, agricultural products have such special industry nature as lower initial cost o
24、f investment, the existence of long-term contracts etc. It is generally acknowledged that the impact of exchange rate movements on agricultural trade is different from that on manufactured goods trade. Gue, Sheldon & McCorriston (2002) has confirmed, compared to other industries, the real exchange r
25、ate uncertainty has a more significant negative effect on agricultural trade.Then as for China, what is the effect of RMB appreciation and associated risks of volatility1 on its agricultural export? A study on this issue has important academic andpractical significance. On one hand, there are still
26、no clear-cut theoretical and empirical conclusions on trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations among the economic community. Moreover, the vast majority studies have probed the trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations in developed countries and have neglected the study on those in developing c
27、ountries like China. Developing countries have the characteristics different from the developed countries, such as the different exchange rate system, lack of a sound foreign exchange forward market, lack of effective financial derivatives, etc., which will impose important constraints on the behavi
28、ors of exporters. As for China, there are two important constraints: First, China runs particular foreign exchange management system; Second, Chinas agricultural exports have encountered serious TBT and SPS. This means the trade effects of exchange rate movements in developing countries should not b
29、e overlooked; On the other hand, the current appreciation of RMB will bring certain negative impact on Chinas agricultural economy and the welfare of farmers (Kong & Li, 2006), while farmers are still the majority of the population in China. Therefore, probing the effect of RMB exchange rate changes
30、 on the agricultural export has an extremely important practical significance. Based on the above understanding, this paper, taking Chinas agricultural exports to Japan as an case, attempts to explain the impact of RMB exchange rate level changes and volatility on Chinas agricultural exports.1 Brief
31、 literature reviewThe study on the impact of exchange rate changes on agricultural trade is launchedfirst by Schuh (1974), which made the fundamental argument that the exchange rate wasExchange rate volatility may be defined as the risk associated with unexpected movements in the exchange rate(McKen
32、zie, 1999).an omitted significant variable in economic analysis of the U.S. farm sector. After hispioneering research, a considerable amount of researches evaluated quantitatively theimpact of nominal and real exchange rate on agricultural trade. Different empirical methods andexchange rate variable
33、s were used in these studies, but leading to the consensus:exchange rate fluctuations have significantly impeded agricultural trade flows, andcompared to other sectors, such negative effect is more noticeable.Some empirical literatures compared the different effects of exchange rate changeson agricu
34、ltural sector and other sectors. These studies reached similar conclusions, namely: Overall, the exchange rate changes significantly negatively affected agricultural trade. Susanti (2001) and Mathew, Terry & Agapi (2006) investigated the effects of exchange rate changes on agricultural trade at both
35、 sector and product level. Susanti (2001) examined Indonesias total exports of agricultural products and five products export and revealed that all of them were significantly negatively affected by Indonesias exchange rate movements. From the early investigation of Robert & Richard (1981) on America
36、n wheat, cotton and soybean to recent investigation of Jose, Kranti & Koo (2006) and Li & Li(2005) on soybean, the researchers investigated the impacts of exchange rate movements of a number of countries on their major agricultural trade flows including barley, wheat, pork, cotton, coffee, cocoa, li
37、ving pig, corn etc. These studies have generally supported the conclusion of the negative impacts of exchange rate movements on disaggregated agricultural trade. However, some studies (such as Anderson & Garcia，1989； Abdulkudos, 2003) indicated that, for a certain agricultural product, the impacts o
38、f exchange rate movements vary across countries, and for a certain country, the impacts vary across agricultural products as well. In an era of floating exchange rate system, there are conflicting arguments in theory on if the volatility risk of exchange rate impedes international trade: somemodels
39、find support for the negative hypothesis yet other models have been derived tosupport the positive hypothesis. The results of empirical studies which have focused on the exchange volatility are no less confusing but most of them support the negativeeffects. Sheldon (2003), Gervais, Larue & Olivier (
40、2004) etc. indicated that the risk ofexchange rate volatility significantly reduced agricultural trade flow. However, Jin, Gue & Koo (2003) showed that whether the effect of exchange rate volatility is positive or negative is related to the measurement of volatility and the effect of third country a
41、s well.A number of Chinese researchers have made investigations on the influences ofRMB exchange rate changes on Chinas agricultural trade with focus in two areas. One is to estimate J-curve effect and the exchange rate elasticity of import and export of agriculture-related products, including early
42、 studies of Cai (1994), Gu, Li & Zhong(1994) and recent studies of Song (2005) and Zhu, Tian & Wang (2006). The other is to simulate the impact of RMB appreciation on Chinas agricultural imports and exports within macro models, focusing the influences in different contexts of appreciation. Although
43、the above studies have achieved considerable success, there is still something that should be noticed. First, the theoretical models based on the assumptions of developed countries does not necessarily fit the circumstances of developing countries therefore these models need to be developed based on
44、 assumptions of developing countries; Second, close attention should be paid to possible structural break in data generating process (DGP) in order to prevent from spurious cointegration; Third, developing countries should receive more concern in future studies. There is still a big difference of th
45、e exchange rate system between the developing countries and developed countries, and agricultural exports have played a more important role on developing countries economic development.2 ModelThis section will construct a model on the basis of Kawai (1981), Fabiosa (2002),Barkoulas & Baum et al (200
46、2), Dekle & Jeong (2006). The impacts of both exchangerate level changes and the risk of exchange rate volatility will be incorporated into themodel.3. Monopolistic competition modelBelow we present the basic monopolistic competition model of the exporting firm.Let China be the export country and th
47、e foreign country be the import country. Arepresentative household of the foreign country consumes differentiated goods that are arranged on the unit interval, 0, 1. Among the goods, goods z will be indexed for1 They used the autoregressive residuals, moving average of the standard deviation, ARCH,G
48、ARCH to measure volatility risks of exchange rate, and estimated equations with and without athird country effect.Chinas agricultural product, where 0 z n , and goods z* 1 for foreign product,where n z* 1. Assuming that domestic and foreign goods markets are segmented.The monopolistically competitiv
49、e firm has the ability to engage in price discrimination by setting a domestic price for domestic sales that differs from the price it sets for exports. Based on the pricing-to-market model of Betts & Devereux (2000), we assume that the exporting firm sells h zt units of output in the home market and exports 4 Empirical e