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1、?2?2? ? ? ? zhoujie10 ? ningfujie S1090518090002 ? dingzhechuan S1090519070002 ? ? 2020?5?12? -2- ?OB?M?C?OB?OB? ?M? ?6?7?OB?6?7? ?OB?-?1?1?Q? OB? ?O?OB? ?%?OB?2%? ? ?O?0+4? ?OB?OB? ?OB?V?+-? ?A?+-?%? OB?A? ?OB? ?OB?/05? ?%? ?OB?8?%? ?9?%? ?OB?6?7? ?AOBE?GOB? ? ?OB31.G?A?OB ? OB?AOB? ?OB?U? ?OB?R?OB
2、 ?R?M?O? ? ?E? ? -3- 1999 B2B?1688? 2003 ?C2C? 2004 ?8,200? ? 2004 ? ? 2006 ? 2007 ? 2007 ? ? ?POS? 2008 B2C? 2008 ? ?3C ? 2009 ? ? 2010 ? ?3C? ? ? 2010 ? ? ? ? 2011 ? ? ? ? 2011 ? ?1? ?iPhone?Android? ? ? ? ? ? 2009 ?6? ?3? ?20000? 2001 ? 100? ? 2005 ? -4- 2013 ? ?2014 ? 2012 ? ? ?JOS? ? ? 2013 ? ?
3、 ?1? ?1000 ? 2015 ?, ?, ?+? ? 11? ?912.17? 2014 IPO? ? ? ? ? 2017 ? ? ? ? 2015 ? ? ? ? ? 2018 ? ? ? ? ?YNAP ? 2017 ? ? ? ? 2019 ? ? 33%? ? 2018 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2016 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2019 ? ? ? ? 2015 ? ? 2016 ?1? ?B?1.1? ? 2018 ? ? ?GMV? 4716? ? ? ? ? 2012 ? ? ? ? -5- ?A? ?1? 0?0?2 ?C? ?Q?9? -6- ? 2? ? 2
4、7.61% 21.49% 14.61% 4.38% 2.88% 2.39% 9.57% 18.57% 21.59% 23.61%23.16%23.50% 18.48% 17.01% 15.31% 11.79% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 ?-? 2?A? ? 9 12 (9) 0 5 11 13 28 37 24 25 35 18 20 19 18 -20.00 -10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.0
5、0 40.00 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 ?-? 2?C? ? 3.02 3.14 3.053.05 3.11 3.21 3.34 3.62 5.52 5.76 6.01 6.36 6.54 6.74 6.93 7.11 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 ?-? ? 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,
6、000 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 ? 2?1?0?9? -7- ? ? ? ?C? ? ? CEO ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?O? ?A ?B ?C ?10% ? ? ? ? ? ?E? ? ? ? CEO before CEO after ? -8- ? ?8?I ?K? ?P?P? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 3C ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
7、? ? ? 2018? ?CEO? ? ?Matrix? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2019? ?1? ? -9- ? ? ? ?.?Q?+?2?45?.?Q?+?68?1?2? ? ?.?Q? 1,001 1,223 1,048 1,348 1,211 1,503 1,348 1,707 619 809 851 1,173 935 1,149 1,190 1,615 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q4 ? 91.38% 90.35% 89.
8、62% 89.17% 89.73% 88.84% 88.14% 87.71% 82.81% 85.50% 85.12% 87.69% 84.38% 86.62% 85.05% 87.68% 78.00% 80.00% 82.00% 84.00% 86.00% 88.00% 90.00% 92.00% 94.00% 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 ? 31.36% 31.21% 25.10% 22.39% 20.93% 22.89% 28.71% 26.59% 60.53% 61.25% 54.47% 41.25%
9、50.97% 42.02% 39.78% 37.67% 0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00% 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 ? ?2?5?9?45? ?Q? ?4 5?2? ?/?21?3?1 ?4?7? ?2? 7?2? ?0? ? ?%? -10- ? ?-? ? ?-? ? ?-? ? 3.15% 4.01% 3.60% 4.44% 2.97% 3.66% 3.14% 4.69% 8.36% 8.48% 9.82% 9.61% 7.32% 6.69%
10、 7.12% 9.19% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 ? 0.67% 0.61% 0.78% 0.60% 0.80% 0.56% 0.61%0.57% 6.26% 3.28% 3.67%3.67% 5.53% 4.75% 4.71% 3.64% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 2018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32
11、019Q4 ? 2.21% 2.02% 2.94% 2.32% 2.86% 2.22% 2.36% 1.87% 8.47% 6.18%6.21% 5.04% 7.56% 7.81%7.84% 4.60% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 2018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q4 ? 7.05% 7.47% 8.33% 6.50% 6.70% 6.90% 7.10% 7.30% 7.50% 7.70% 7.90% 8.10% 8.30% 8.50% 201
12、720182019 ?-?-?(non-gaap) ? ? -11- ? VS ? ? ? ?e?e? ?%?%?k?%? ?t?%?1?0%?r? ?9? ? ? ?a? ? 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 201720182019 ? ? ? -12- ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?AAC?QM? ? ?0? 100% 83% 87% 90% 98% 100% 106%106% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% ?2?1? ? ? ?A1?%? ? -13- ? 2020? ? 26-35? ? ? ? ? ?
13、? ? ? ? ? ? ?/?3-4? ? ? ? ? -14- ? ? ? ?2-3? ? ? ? App?App? ?2018?8?9? ?4? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?App? ? -15- ?S? ? ? ? -16- ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?+?41%16%30% ?20%8%15% ?+?5%13%9% ?+?10%6%9% ?+?6%4%5% ?5%5%5% ?+?1%8%4% ?1%6%3% ?2%2%2% ?1%2%2% ?+?0%3%2% ?1%2%1% ?1%1%1% ?1%1%1% ?0.1%0.3%0.2% ?0.4%0
14、.4%0.4% ?3%22%11% ?100%100%100% ? ? -17- ? ?%? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?-1?4- ? ? ? ? 14.14% 13.50% 15.38% 14.22% 15.02% 14.72%14.92% 14.06% 12.50% 13.00% 13.50% 14.00% 14.50% 15.00% 15.50% 16.00% 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 ? -18- ? ? ?20162017201820192020E2021E2
15、022E2023E ?GMV%?%?%?%? ?+3C?%?%? yoy?%?%?%? %?GMV? ?%?%?%?%? yoy? %?GMV?%?%?%?%? ?20162017201820192020E2021E2022E2023E ?2334624949267062856530512326483460736683 ?2620627044278402859029306301853078931405 ?44054693497252405497577260606363 ?81668590900694079793101851059210910 ?1267613190138831439514740
16、150351533615643 ?4981950990524375376654949576966058163610 ?1897119731204982126822032229142383024783 ?1081811344118751239712904134201382314237 ?20162017201820192020E2021E2022E2023E ?1.92.12.42.62.833.23.4 ?23.327.731.134.336.839.341.844.3 ?21.624.427.430.134.53739.542 ?35.738.341.144.147.149.251.353.
17、4 ?40.642.944.845.846.347.448.549.6 ?2.83.756.310121416 ?6.37.99.310.512.214.116.218.4 ?5.76.67.68.79.410.111.212.1 ?/?35%50%64%71%75%78%81%83% ?/?4%7%10%12%14%16%18%20% JD(?+3C)/?+3C)41%60%75%80%86%86%86%89% JD(?)/?)31%44%58%65%70%74%78%81% ?20162017201820192020E2021E2022E2023E GMV65821124816768208
18、54?%? yoy47%71%49%24%24%16%16%15% -19- ? ? 201620172018201920202021E2022E2023E ?2601362346205768.967497750?% yoy43%39%28%25%17%15%? ?/GMV40%32%28%28%26%26%25%26% ?237933184161510758326585?% yoy42%39%25%23%14%13%? %91%92%90%89%86%85%? ?+3C179823632801328735373704? yoy34%31%19%17%8%5%?%? %?76%71%67%64
19、%61%56%? ?5819561361182022952881?%? yoy74%64%42%34%26%26%? %?24%29%33%36%39%44%? ?222305459662917116514661830 yoy63%38%51%44%39%27%26%25% %9%8%10%11%14%15%17%18% ?41.170.2104.6130.1161.5186.8216.7248.8 yoy47%71%49%24%24%16%16%15% %19%23%23%20%18%16%15%14% ?41.170.2104.6130.1161.5186.8216.7248.8 yoy4
20、7%71%49%24%24%16%16%15% %19%23%23%20%18%16%15%14% ?97921422684296008101077 yoy89%-5%54%88%60%40%35%33% %44%30%31%40%47%51%55%59% ?42.1 72.0 107.3 133.5 165.6 191.6 222.2 255.2 ?%?%? %19%24%23%20%18%16%15%14% -20- ? ? ? ? ?%? ? ?%? ? ? 5.0% 15.0% 25.0% 35.0% 45.0% 55.0% 65.0% 75.0% 85.0% 95.0% 105.0%
21、 20152016201720182019 ?2? ?2? ?7?2?.?3? ?7?2?10?3? ?%? ? ?%?%? ? 10.00% 11.00% 12.00% 13.00% 14.00% 15.00% 16.00% 17.00% 18.00% 19.00% 20.00% 20152016201720182019 ?5?2?7?5?2? 20189 ?7? ?2?13.93%8.02% ?5?2?15.00%16.70% ?6?11.07%4.62% ?2.21%1.24% ?0.96%2.92% 8?1.53%7.69% 8?2?12.39%0.33% ?2?-0.77%0.23%
22、 20199 ?7? ?2?13.03%9.90% ?5?2?14.53%18.83% ?6?13.05%4.35% ?1.92%1.07% ?1.27%2.86% 8?1.68%7.24% 8?2?11.34%2.66% ?2?-3.41%3.30% ? ?1?+? ?1?+?9? -21- ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?IT ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 618?11?CPU? 11?111? 1111? ? ? -22- ? 1? ?8C?%? ?+8C?%?%? ?+?6?%?%? ?8C?%? ?6? ?6?%? ?E ?E8C? ?E?6? ?6?%? 53? 538C?
23、%?%? 53?6? ?6? ? ?6?%?%? ?E?6?4?0?6?.? ? ?%?%? 2?%? ?%?%? 79?%?%? ? 53?%? ?-?8.22%9.54%11.02%12.79% 1? ? -23- ? ?wind?(?) ?&? ROE ? -4.46% ? -0.45% ? -28.8% ? ? 2.35 ? 1.37 ? 1.05 ? ? 3.52 ? 2.23 ? 3.65 ? ? -0.61% ? -0.15% ? -8.41% ?&? ROE ? 17.21% ? -6.73% ? -20.2% ? ? 2.46 ? 1.23 ? 0.9 ? ? 3.31 ?
24、2.58 ? 5.16 ? ? 2.06% ? -2.12% ? -4.93% -24- ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? -25- ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? -26- ? ?T? ? ?13? ?2? ?2?%? ? 6?6? ? ?2?%? BL/DW/DXP ?6?6?1688 ? ? ? 1?1? 8?8? ? ?2?72? ? ? ? ?2? ? ?MG?2? ?6?2?72? ?1? ?G?2?02M ?V? ?:? ? ?M?-? ? ?2 ?I?I?1? -27- ? ?IIT? ? ? ? ? One Data One ServiceOne ID Cloud ComputingArtificial Intelligence ? ?T? ?T?T ?T? ? -28- ? 90?2?1?2? ?90?2?M ?90 ?90