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1、 XXXX ? ? 1 ? ? 3 ? 2012 _2013_? 1 ? ? ? B ? B ? ?_ ?_ _ ? ? 3 ? 30 ? 1? ABC 2? 0.1 3? 2815 4? )1 (22pp? 5?, 2 , 1,)1 (1?kppk 6?32 7?A= 21 ?B= ?1 ?8?n 15?p 0.4 9? 193 10? ),(2nN? ? ?321,BBB?A? ?1? 16. 010225. 01032 . 01051 . 0)()()()()()()(332211?BPBAPBPBAPBPBAPAP -5 ? ?2?8316. 006. 0)()()()(222?APB
2、PBAPABP ? -3 ? ?10?XPp=210510510eede51d)(?xxXxxxf? -4 ? ?)e, 5(2?BY?5 , 4 , 3 , 2 , 1 , 0,)1 (55?kppCkYPkkk? - 4 ? ?52)e1 (1011?YPYP? 2e5)(?YE?)e1 (e5)(22?YD -2 ? ? ? X ?011,21xfX ?10? y? ?yxyXyPyXPyYFyyY?d212?-6 ? ?2YX?, 010 ,21)(yyyfY ? -2 ? ? XXXX ? ? 2 ? ? 3 ? 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 335 235 1 0 635 1235
3、235 2 135 635 335 0 -5 ? ? ?3510 ?XP?35121 ?XP?35182 ?XP?3543 ?XP? ?3550 ?YP?35201 ?YP?35102 ?XP? -3 ? ?(1)?0?x?0d),()(?yyxfxfX? ?0?x?xyxXyyyxfxf?eded ),()(0)(? ?00e)(xxfxX?00e)(yyfyY? -4 ? (2) ?)()(),(,yfxfyxfyxYX?X?Y?X?Y?-4 ? (3) ?0?z?0d)()(d)()()(0?xxzfxfxxzfxfzfYXYXZ? ?0?z?zzxzxYXZzxxxzfxfzf?ede
4、ed)()()(0)(0? ?000e)(zzzzfzZ? -4 ? ? ? ?x1, x2, x n?X1, X 2, , X n?, ? 1(1), 01,0,nniiixxL?. -4 ? ? 0 xi0 ? ?niixnL1ln) 1ln(ln?, X Y XXXX ? ? 3 ? ? 3 ? ? 1dlnlnd1niiLnx?=0, ? ? ? 11lnniinx? ? ?, ? ? ? 11lnniinX? ? ?. -4 ? ? ?(1) ?X? 95%? ?) 1(),1(22ntnsxntnsx? -2 ? ?0301. 2)35() 1(,05. 0,36,15, 5 .66025. 02?tntnsx? ?575.71,425.61 -3 ? (2) ?0100:,70:?HH? ) 1(20?ntnsx? -2 ? ?0301. 2)35(4 . 13615705 .66025. 00?tnsx?0H ? 70 ? -3 ? ?10iiXi? ? ? (i=1,2,n)? -2 ? PXi=0=nnnn) 1( ?, PXi=1=1-nnnn) 1( ? (i=1,2,n) -2 ? X=X1+X2+Xn?E(X)=E(X1)+E(X2)+E(Xn)=n(1-nnnn) 1( ?) -2 ?