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1、【精品文档】如有侵权，请联系网站删除，仅供学习与交流世界经济之战口白.精品文档.Commanding HeightsEpisode One: The Battle of Ideas一部：思想的戰爭1. 第一章：Prologue 序言 2:45 2. 第二章：The Old Order Fails 舊秩序的失敗8:11 3. 第三章：Communism on the Heights 共產主義制高點 6:16 4. 第四章：A Capitalist Collapse 資本主義的崩潰 8:48 5. 第五章：Global Depression 全球性的蕭條 5:26 6. 第六章：Worldwide
2、 War 世界大戰 7:00 7. 第七章：Planning the Peace 籌備和平 6:47 8. 第八章：Pilgrim Mountain 朝聖山 3:43 9. 第九章：Germanys Bold Move 德國的大膽前進 4:11 10. 第十章：Indias Way 印度方式 3:51 11. 第十一章：Chicago Against the Tide 芝加哥逆流7:32 12. 第十二章：The Specter of Stagflation 滯脹幽靈6:34 13. 第十三章：A Mixed Economy Flounders 混合經濟的掙扎8:36 14. 第十四章：Der
3、egulation Takes Off 取消管制 7:29 15. 第十五章：Thatcher Takes the Helm 柴契爾掌權3:50 16. 第十六章：Reagan Rides In 雷根上臺8:17 17. 第十七章：War in the South Atlantic 南大西洋上的戰爭 1:41 18. 第十八章：The Heights Go Up for Sale 出售制高點 8:08 19. 第十九章：The Battle Decided? 戰局已定？ 3:26 Chapter 1: Prologue 2:45第一章: 序言NARRATOR: As the 20th cent
4、ury drew to its close, and our new century began, the battle over the world economy intensified. Some people feared globalization and questioned the benefits. Others welcomed it.旁白: 隨著二十世紀的即將結束和二十一世紀的很快來臨，世界經濟體競爭也在不斷加劇。一些人害怕全球化的浪潮，對它能帶來的好處持懷疑態度，而另外一些人則持歡迎態度。RICHARD CHENEY, U.S. Vice President: Milli
5、ons of people a day are better off than they would have been without those trade developments, without globalization. And very few people have been harmed by it. 切尼，美國副總統： 如果沒有貿易發展和全球化，每天會有數百萬人的經濟狀況不會象現在這麼好。沒有什麼人因為貿易發展和全球化而受到傷害。NARRATOR: As the terrible events of September 11 drove the world deeper
6、into a recession, new questions emerged about the perils of the new world economy. Can our now deeply interconnected world surmount a global downturn and rise above other crises? And is global terrorism the dark side of the promise of globalization?旁白：911事件將世界經濟推入到更嚴重的衰退中，隨之出現有關新世界經濟所面臨的危險的新問題，密切聯繫的
7、世界能否度過當前全球性的低迷時期並從危機中恢復呢？而全球恐怖主義又是不是全球化浪潮的陰暗面呢？BILL CLINTON, U.S. President, 1993-2001: You cant get away from the fact that globalization makes us interdependent. So its not an option to shed it. So is it going to be on balance positive or negative?克林頓，美國總統，1993-2001：你不能無視全球化使我們互相依賴這個事實，因此無法選擇擺脫它。那
8、麼總體來說它會是正面的還是負面的呢？ NARRATOR: This is the story of how the new global economy was born, a century-long battle as to which would control the commanding heights of the worlds economies - governments or markets; the story of intellectual combat over which economic system would truly benefit mankind; the
9、 story of epic political struggles to implant those ideas on the nations of the world.旁白：這是新的全球經濟誕生的故事這是一場長達一個世紀的戰爭，它圍繞誰將控制世界各經濟體的制高點而展開是政府還是市場；是智力鬥爭的故事哪一種經濟制度可以真正有利於人類；是大規模政治鬥爭的故事通過這些鬥爭將那些觀念灌輸給世界各國。JEFFREY SACHS, Professor, Harvard University: Part of what happened is a capitalist revolution at the
10、 end of the 20th century. The market economy, the capitalist system, became the only model for the vast majority of the world. 傑裴裏.薩克斯(Jeffrey Sachs)，哈佛大學教授：所發生的事情部分來說是二十世紀末的一場資本主義革命。市場經濟、資本主義制度成為世界絕大多數國家所奉行的模式。 NARRATOR: This economic revolution has defined the wealth and fate of nations and will d
11、etermine the future of the planet.旁白： 這場經濟革命決定了各個國家的財富和命運，而且也將決定地球的未來。 DANIEL YERGIN, Author, Commanding Heights: This new world economy is being driven by technological change and by political change, but none of it would have happened without a revolution in ideas.丹尼爾.尤金（DANIEL YERGIN），制高點的作者：技術變革
12、和政治變革推動著世界新經濟的發展，但是如果沒有思想革命的話，這些都不會發生。NARRATOR: Tonight, the battle of ideas that still divides our world.旁白：今晚，思想鬥爭仍然把我們的世界分割開來。 Chapter 2: The Old Order Fails 8:11第二章：舊秩序的失敗NARRATOR: Air-raid sirens sound the alert. German bombers will pound another British city tonight .旁白：空襲警報聽起來令人警覺。德國轟炸機今晚將轟炸另
13、一個英國城市。Onscreen title: Cambridge University, 1940字幕標題：劍橋大學，1940年During the blitz, the two most important economists of the age shared air-warden duty on the roof of Kings College, an English gentleman and an Austrian exile - personal friends, but intellectual rivals. How their battle of ideas still
14、shapes our life and society is our story.閃電戰期間，那個時代最重要的兩位經濟學家共同擔任(空襲時檢查街道防空設施的)民防隊員。他們中一位是英國紳士，一位是被放逐的奧地利人他們是朋友，但又是學術上的競爭對手。他們之間的思想鬥爭至今仍然影響著我們的生活和社會，這就是我們的故事。John Maynard Keynes helped the allied governments defend freedom by planning their wartime economies. Friedrich von Hayek thought government i
15、nterference in the economy was a threat to freedom.凱恩斯通過為盟國政府規劃戰時經濟來幫助他們捍衛自由。 哈耶克則認為政府干預經濟是對自由的威脅。DANIEL YERGIN: The debate over market forces, whether you have economy thats based upon prices or on state, planning has been at the very heart of the economic battles of the last 100 years. For decades
16、, the ideas of John Maynard Keynes dominated the economies of the Western world.丹尼爾.尤金：辯論涉及到各種市場力量。不管經濟是建立在價格基礎上還是建立在政府基礎上，計畫始終是過去100年中經濟鬥爭的核心。幾十年來，凱恩斯的思想是主宰了西方世界的經濟體。JOSEPH STANISLAW, Co-Author, Commanding Heights: Keynes felt that the market economy would go to excesses, and when things were in di
17、fficulty the market wouldnt work. Therefore the government had to step in. Hayek felt that the market would eventually take care of itself. JOSEPH STANISLAW, 制高點的聯合作者：凱恩斯認為市場經濟會產生過剩；困難時期市場不起作用。因此政府必須介入。哈耶克則認為市場最終自會處理自身的問題。 DANIEL YERGIN: It was only when Hayek was a very old man that his ideas began
18、 to prevail and the world began to change. 丹尼爾.尤金:直到哈耶克到了耄耋之年他的思想才開始流行，而世界也開始改變了。NARRATOR: At the start of the 20th century, Hayek and Keynes had witnessed the first age of globalization. Every day life was being transformed everywhere. Technologies like the telegraph and the telephone revolutionize
19、d communications. Steamships and railways made the world a smaller place. Tens of millions migrated without the need for passports.旁白：二十世紀初，哈耶克和凱恩斯見證了第一次全球化浪潮。日常生活在各地都發生著變化。諸如電報、電話之類的科學技術帶來了一場通訊革命；汽船和鐵路使世界變得更小；數千萬人移民而不需要有護照。Keynes described this global market in which trade flowed freely.凱恩斯描述了全球市場的
20、情況，在這個市場中貿易自由流通。OHN MAYNARD KEYNES: The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea, the various products of the whole earth, and reasonably expect their early delivery upon his doorstep. Militarism and imperialism of racial and cultural rivalries were little more than the
21、 amusements of his daily newspaper. What an extraordinary episode in the economic progress of man was that age which came to an end in August 1914. 凱恩斯:倫敦居民可以一邊喝著早茶，一邊通過電話來訂購世界各地的產品；還可以想像著他們訂購的產品早早地放在自家門口臺階上。種族、文化之間敵對的軍國主義和帝國主義就如同每天看報的消遣一樣。人類經濟發展史上一個特別的章節即在1914年8月那個時代走到了盡頭。NARRATOR: Hayek summed it
22、up more succinctly.旁白：哈耶克的總結更加簡潔。FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK: We did not realize how fragile our civilization was. 哈耶克: 我們沒有意識到我們的文明是多麼脆弱。NARRATOR: The murder of an Austrian archduke by a terrorist triggered a world war. It would be almost 80 years before there was once again a truly global economy.旁白：一位奧地利
23、大公被恐怖分子謀殺引發了一次世界大戰。將近80年以後，一個真正的全球經濟才又再次出現。World War I destroyed 20 million lives. It laid a whole continent to waste. There was blood and carnage amidst the beauty of the Italian Alps, where the armies of Austria and Italy were fighting.第一次世界大戰摧殘了兩千萬個生命，將整個歐洲大陸變成一片廢墟。義大利和奧地利軍隊在義大利的阿爾畢斯山激戰，鮮血和屠殺遮蔽了阿
24、爾畢斯山的美麗。Friedrich von Hayek served in the Austrian artillery. He was only 17 years old - still a schoolboy. The fighting was ferocious. He experienced retreat and defeat.哈耶克在奧地利炮兵部隊中服役，當時他只有17歲還是一個學生。戰鬥是殘酷的；他經歷了撤退和戰敗。FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK: The decisive influence was really World War I. Its bound to dr
25、aw your attention to the problems of political organization.哈耶克：第一次世界大戰確實產生了決定性的影響，它必定將你的注意力吸引到政治組織的問題上來。NARRATOR: He vowed to work for a better world.旁白：他發誓要為建立一個更美好的世界而奮鬥。DANIEL YERGIN: The first world war was a cataclysm. People were disillusioned. People were bitter. They were looking for someth
26、ing better. Socialism, communism seemed to promise that better world. 丹尼爾.尤金: 第一次世界大戰無異於一次大地震，它使人們幡然醒悟並痛苦萬分。人們在尋找更好的制度，而社會主義和共產主義似乎為人們勾畫了一個更美好的世界。Onscreen title: St. Petersburg, 1917字幕標題：聖彼德堡，1917年NARRATOR: By overthrowing the old order, the Russian Revolution aimed to deliver that better world. Ins
27、pired by the economic theories of Karl Marx, the Bolsheviks sought to smash capitalism. Lenin, the revolutions leader, urged the workers of the world to unite against the global economy. The revolution made trade, commerce, and private property criminal acts. Lenin promised to end the economic explo
28、itation of man by man.旁白：俄國革命推翻了舊秩序，它的目標就是建立一個更美好的世界。在馬克思經濟理論的鼓舞下，布爾什維克尋求推翻資本主義。列寧革命的領導者極力主張全世界的工人團結起來反對全球經濟。革命使得貿易、商業和私人財產都成為犯罪活動。列寧承諾要結束人對人的剝削。Onscreen title: Cambridge University, 1918字幕標題：劍橋大學，1918年The man who was destined to be Hayeks great intellectual rival was a brilliant young academic at C
29、ambridge University. But John Maynard Keynes was much more than that. He befriended writers and artists. One painted these murals for him. He was also a familiar figure in the City of London, where he made a fortune in the stock market, lost it all, and made it back again.這個註定要成為哈耶克思想上的競爭對手的年輕人是劍橋大學
30、一位有才氣的學者，但是這遠不是凱恩斯的全部。他與作家和藝術家交朋友，一個人還為他畫了一些壁畫。另外，他還是倫敦城的一個家喻戶曉的人物，因為他在倫敦股票市場上賺了大錢，全輸掉了，然後又賺了回來。Familiar with politicians and prime ministers, Keynes spent the first world war advising the British government on how to organize its wartime economy. At the end of the war, Keynes joined the British pea
31、ce delegation at Versailles in France. The victorious allies wanted defeated Germany to pay the costs of the war through what were called reparations. 因為凱恩斯與政治家們和首相們很熟悉，第一次世界大戰期間他向英國政府就應如何組織戰時經濟提供顧問服務。戰爭結束時，凱恩斯作為英國和平代表團的成員前往法國凡爾賽。取得了勝利的盟國希望戰敗的德國支付賠款以賠償戰爭損失。ROBERT SKIDELSKY, Biographer of J.M. Keynes
32、: All the statesmen of Versailles could think about was how to squeeze money out of an already bankrupt Germany. ROBERT SKIDELSKY, 凱恩斯的傳記作者: 在凡爾賽的政治家們想的都是如何從已經一貧如洗的德國身上榨出錢來。GEOFFREY HARCOURT, Professor of Economics, Cambridge University: Keynes felt the reparations were out of all proportion to what
33、 an economy could really take and would have very destructive social, political, and economic consequences.GEOFFREY HARCOURT, 劍橋大學經濟學教授:凱恩斯認為賠款完全超出了一個經濟體所能承受的限度並將造成破壞性的社會、政治和經濟後果。NARRATOR: Angry and disgusted, Keynes resigned. Back in England, he went to stay with his friend, the painter Duncan Gran
34、t. That summer, Grant painted Keynes writing his prophetic book, The Economic Consequences of the Peace.旁白：出於憤怒和厭惡，凱恩斯辭職了。回到英格蘭後，他與他的朋友畫家Duncan Grant住在一起。那個夏天，Grant畫下了正在寫書的凱恩斯，那是一本預言式的書和平的經濟後果. JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES: If we take the view that Germany must be kept impoverished and her children starved a
35、nd crippled, vengeance, I dare predict, will not limp. Nothing can delay that final war that will destroy the civilization and progress of our generation. 凱恩斯:如果我們認為必須讓德國非常貧困，讓德國兒童挨餓、殘廢，那麼我敢預言復仇將不會停止。沒有什麼能夠延緩最終的大戰，而這戰爭將摧毀人類文明和我們這一代的發展進程。Chapter 3: Communism on the Heights 6:16第三章：制高點上的共產主義Onscreen t
36、itle: Vienna, 1919字幕標題：維也納，1919年NARRATOR: Austria had lost the war and its empire. Vienna was a cold and hungry city. Revolution was in the air. Socialists and Communists were winning the battle for hearts and minds. Young and idealistic, Friedrich von Hayek enrolled at the University of Vienna. 旁白：
37、奧匈帝國戰敗，帝國也解體了。維也納是一個寒冷、饑餓的城市。革命很流行。社會主義者和共產主義者贏得了人心。年輕而又理想主義的哈耶克進入維也納大學學習。FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK: It was during the war that I more or less decided to do economics. I really got hooked. 哈耶克：是在戰爭中，我決定從事經濟學研究。我真的被它抓住了。NARRATOR: Socialism seemed to promise a more just society. Albert Zlabinger, a former p
38、upil and disciple of Hayek: 旁白：社會主義似乎承諾了一個更公正的社會。Albert Zlabinger以前是哈耶克的學生和信徒。ALBERT ZLABINGER, Economist and Pupil of Hayek: He openly said that he at one time was a socialist of the mild sort, where concerns for the poor and concerns for fairness and equity would help to determine government polic
39、y. Albert Zlabinger，經濟學家，哈耶克的學生：他公開說自己一度曾是溫和的社會主義者，主張對窮人，公平和平等的關注將會幫助政府確定政策。NARRATOR: Much of Viennas intellectual life took place outside the university, in the coffeehouses across the Ringstrasse. There were informal seminars for those who loved discussion and argument. Hayek joined the circle of
40、a passionate libertarian called Ludwig von Mises. Von Mises believed markets, like people, needed to be free from government meddling. 旁白：維也納的學術活動多數是在大學以外的Ringstrasse對面的咖啡館進行的。熱愛討論和爭論的人舉辦一些非正式的討論會。哈耶克加入到一位充滿熱情的自由主義者的圈子當中，這個自由主義者就是Ludwig von Mises。Von Mises 認為市場就像人一樣需要擺脫政府的干預。ALBERT ZLABINGER: Ludwig
41、 von Mises was the preeminent economist of the Austrian school. The distinguishing hallmark of the Austrian school of economic thought is that markets work and governments dont. ALBERT ZLABINGER：Ludwig von Mises是奧地利學派一位傑出的經濟學家。奧地利學派經濟思想的顯著特點就是他們認為市場起作用而政府不起作用。NARRATOR: Von Mises predicted that the n
42、ew Soviet socialist economy would never work, precisely because the government controlled wages and prices. 旁白：Von Mises預言正是由於政府控制工資和價格，所以新的蘇聯的社會主義經濟永遠不會成功。DANIEL YERGIN: What von Mises said is that the great flaw of socialism is that it doesnt have a functioning price system to send all the signals
43、 to consumers and producers as to what something is worth; that these prices are at the very heart of what makes a functioning economy work. 丹尼爾.尤金：Von Mises 所說的是指社會主義的一大缺點是它沒有一個有效的價格體系來向消費者和生產者傳遞所有表示什麼東西值多少錢的信號；而這些價格則恰恰是使經濟有效運行的核心。You can think of them as traffic signals. And if you dont have them,
44、 what you get is a system that doesnt work, or you get chaos. 你可以把它們看作交通信號。如果沒有它們，那麼你得到的是一個無效的或者混亂的體系。ALBERT ZLABINGER: Von Mises argued that free markets do it best - why fool with anything else? ALBERT ZLABINGER：Von Mises爭論說自由市場最有效為什麼還要玩弄其他手段呢？Onscreen title: Moscow, 1922字幕標題：莫斯科，1922年NARRATOR: In
45、 Soviet Russia, it seemed as if von Misess predictions were coming true. Lenin had abolished what he saw as the chaos of free markets. The state controlled the economy. Wages and prices were fixed. But the great Marxist experiment was in trouble. Lenin had an economic disaster on his hands. Soviet R
46、ussia was a grim place, haunted by cold, famine, hunger, and death. 旁白：在蘇聯，Von Mises的預言看起來好像應驗了。列寧結束了他所認為的自由市場混亂狀態。國家控制了經濟。工資和價格是固定的。但是偉大的馬克思主義的試驗陷入了困境。列寧面臨一場經濟災難。蘇聯成了一個嚴酷的地方，飽受寒冷、饑荒、饑餓和死亡的折磨。DANIEL YERGIN: Lenin knew that he needed a different kind of policy. and he instituted what would become kno
47、wn as the New Economic Policy. Lenin says farmers can sell their own goods and own their own land. He says that small businesses can operate, and you start to get an economic revival. Well, his comrades on the left attacked him viciously for selling out the principles of Bolshevism and Marxism. And
48、Lenin, who by this time had already had a stroke and was not well, nevertheless pulled himself up on the platform for one of the very last times in his life, and he was still the old Lenin. He was vitriolic; he was sarcastic. His critics, he said, were fools, were stupid, because the state, the government, the Bolsheviks would control the overall economy: steel, railroads, coal, the heavy industries - what he called the commanding heights of the economy. 丹尼爾.尤金：列寧知道他需要推行另一種不同的政策，於是他推行了著名的“新經濟政策”。列寧表示農民可以出售自己的產品和土地；小企業可以開工經營。經濟開始復蘇。