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1、精选优质文档-倾情为你奉上西安建筑科技大学毕业设计(论文)外文资料翻译院（系）： 管理学院 专 业： 公共事业管理 姓 名： 郑 凯 学 号： (用外文写)外文出处：Journal of Evolutionary Econom- -ics,2004,Vol.14(2) Book review: Game theory and interdependence. Game Theory and its Applications in the Social and Biological Sciences, Andrew M. Colman, Oxford: ButterworthHeinemann,
2、 1995. 375 pp, ISBN 0750623691.附 件： 1.外文资料翻译译文；2.外文原文 完成日期： 2013年4 月10日 专心-专注-专业1.Business cyclethe definition of the economic cycle, economic cycle: also called the business cycle, business cycles, economic cycle, it is to point to in the operation of the economic cyclical economic expansion and co
3、ntraction of alternate cycles of a phenomenon. Is the national total output, total revenue and total employment fluctuations.Under the condition of market economy, entrepreneurs are increasingly concerned about the economy, namely economic climate change. The stand or fall of an enterprise productio
4、n and business operation conditions, is influenced by its internal conditions, and by the external macroeconomic environment and market environment. , an enterprise is unable to determine its external environment, but can through the internal conditions to improve, to actively adapt to the change of
5、 the external environment, make full use of external environment, and within a certain range, change their own environment, in order to enhance their vitality, expand market share. As entrepreneurs, therefore, the economic cycle fluctuations must understand and grasp, and to formulate the correspond
6、ing countermeasure to adapt to the cycle fluctuations, or loss of life in waves.schumpeter and based on innovation theory, in the economic cycle and relevant books and periodicals, presented his theory of economic cycle. By diffusion, a kind of innovation, he argues, to stimulate large-scale investm
7、ent, caused the upsurge, once investment opportunities disappear, then into a recession. Because the introduction of innovation is not continuous steady, but the high low, thus produce the economic cycle. Innovation in the history of the differ in thousands ways, its influence on the development of
8、the economy are different sizes, so cycle has long have short. His combination of the previous argument, put forward in the process of historical development of capitalism at the same time there are three cycles of claims: (1) 50 60 years long cycle or long wave of economy, also known as the Conrad
9、JiYe cycle; (2) as an average of 9 10 years of capitalist economic cycle, also known as the jug pull cycle; (3) an average of 40 months of so-called short cycle or short wave, also known as qin period. He declared that the several cycles to coexist and intertwined with each other further proves the
10、correctness of his innovation theory.Schumpeter also in capitalism, socialism and democracy, a book attacked, labor value theory of Marxs historical materialism and surplus value theory. He put forward a capitalism will automatic transition to the socialist argument. He asserted: once the economy pr
11、ogress makes all of non-life and automated, without human action, innovation itself down to a routine things, weak function, then entrepreneurs for innovation, investment opportunities are disappearing and become useless, capitalism will not survive, and will automatically enter the socialism. Schum
12、peter called socialism, however, and as a symbol of socialist public and public, in fact is still the nationalization of the bourgeoisie and state that no change or touches the capitalist ownership.Current have been harsher about schumpeters theory of the influence of the western academia have great
13、er extension, especially due to the progress of science and technology, schumpeters innovation theory by western scholars more attention.1、 经济周期理论的定义经济周期(Business cycle)：也称、商业循环、， 它是指经济运行中周期性出现的经济扩张与经济紧缩交替更迭、循环往复的一种现象。是、总收入和总就业的波动。 在条件下，企业家们越来越多地关心经济形势，也就是 “经济大气候”的变化。一个企业生产经营状况的好坏，既受其内部条件的影响，又受其外部和的
14、影响。一个企业，无力决定它的外部环境，但可以通过内部条件的改善，来积极适应外部环境的变化，充分利用外部环境，并在一定范围内，改变自己的小环境，以增强自身活力，扩大市场占有率。因此，作为企业家对经济周期波动必须了解、把握，并能制订相应的对策来适应周期的波动，否则将在波动中丧失生机。熊彼特又以“创新理论”为依据，在经济周期及有关书刊中，提出了他的。他认为，一种创新通过扩散，刺激大规模的投资，引起了高涨，一旦投资机会消失，便转入了衰退。由于创新的引进不是连续平稳的，而是时高时低的，这样就产生了经济周期。历史上的创新千差万别，对经济发展的影响也大小不同，因而周期有长有短。他综合了前人的论点，提出在资本
15、主义历史发展过程中同时存在着三种周期的主张：历时5060年的经济长周期或长波，又称“”;通常所说的平均910年的资本主义经济周期，又称“朱格拉周期”；平均40个月的所谓短周期或短波，又称“”。他宣称，这几种周期并存而且互相交织的情况进一步证明了他的“创新理论”的正确性。熊彼特还在资本主义、和民主主义一书中攻击了的历史唯物主义、劳动价值论和剩余价值论。他提出了资本主义将自动过渡到“社会主义”的论点。他断言：一旦经济进步使一切都非人身化和自动化了，无需人的作用了，创新本身降为例行事物了，那时企业家就因创新职能日弱、投资机会日渐消失而变得无用，“资本主义就将活不下去”，并将自动地进入“社会主义”。然
16、而熊彼特所谓的“社会主义”，以及作为社会主义标志的“公有”和“公营”，实际上仍然是资产阶级的国有化和国营，根本没有改变或触动资本主义所有制。当前熊彼特学说在西方学术界的影响有更大的扩展，特别是由于科学技术的进步，熊彼特的“创新理论”受到西方更多学者的重视。2.Game theoryGame theory is two people with each other in equal match-up strategy transform their confrontation strategy, achieve the goal of victory. Ancient existing game
17、 theory thought, sun tzus the art of ancient China is not just a military work, and is the earliest writing on game theory. Game theory original research outcome of chess, bridge, gambling problems, grasp of game situation only on experience, there is no theoretical development.(1)Policy makers: in
18、the game first to make a decision of the party, this party is often based on their own feelings, experience, and surface state priority one directional action.(2) antagonist: action lags in the games, two games of the people, and policymakers should basic negative decision, and his action is lagging
19、, the default, passive, but in the end. His weaknesses may depend on the decision strategy choice, take up the space features, so confrontation is the only way of dominant, actually is the periodic end of the leader behavior.(3) bureau middleman (players) : in a competition or game, each have the de
20、cision-making power of the participants to be a player. There are only two players of game is called two people game, and more than two players of game called multiplayer game.(4) strategies (strategies) : a game in the game, each player has a selection of practical complete action plan, the plan is
21、 not a stage of action, but to guide the whole a plan of action, a player a viable from beginning to end global planning is a plan of action, called a device to this player. If there are limited in a game in the middle game strategy, it is called a limited game, otherwise known as the game.(5) and (
22、payoffs) : a game when the game ends as the result of the gain and loss. Each player in the game at the end of the game of the gain and loss, not only related to the agency in its chosen strategy, and with the global human take a set of strategies. So, a game at the end of the game each player and a
23、ll the players are a set of fixed strategy function, often referred to as payment (payoff) functions.(6) order (orders) : each game party decisions have successively, and a game party will be decision option more than once, and in order; Other elements of the same order, the game is different.(7) ga
24、me comes to equilibrium, equilibrium is the balance point, in economics, the equilibrium meaning related to the amount in a stable value. In supply and demand, market if a commodity at a certain price, want to buy this goods this price can buy per person, per person and want to sell to sell, at this
25、 point we can say, the goods has reached the equilibrium of supply and demand. So-called Nash equilibrium, it is a stable game result.Nash Equilibrium (Nash Equilibrium) : in a strategy combination, all of the participants faced such a situation, when others dont change strategy, his strategy is the
26、 best. That is to say, if he change the strategy at this time his income would be reduced. On the Nash equilibrium, each rational participants will not have the urge to change tactics alone. Nash equilibrium existence proof is the premise of the concept of accidentally game equilibrium. Even so-call
27、ed equilibrium is in A zero-sum game, the authorities in to take its optimal strategy. A A *, player B * B also take their optimal strategy, if the player still take B * B, while player A take A another strategy, then the player As income does not exceed A * him to take the original strategy benefit
28、s. This game in the same is true of B.Accidentally in this way, equilibrium defined as: a pair of strategies a * (belong to the policy set a) and strategy b * (belong to the policy set b) accidentally called equilibrium, for any strategy and strategy (belong to the policy set a) b (belong to the pol
29、icy set b), there are: (a, b *) even the acuities were to (a *, b *) or greater to (a *, b).To non-zero-sum also has the following definition: a strategy for a * (belong to the policy set a) and strategy b * (belong to the policy set b) accidentally called non-zero-sum equilibrium, for any strategy
30、and strategy (belong to the policy set a) b (belong to the policy set b), there are: the game in a pair (a, b *) accidentally or less for (a *, b *); Game in B to acuities were to (a *, B) (a *, B *).With the above definition, immediately get Nash theorem:Any two people with limited pure strategy ga
31、me with at least one equilibrium. This equilibrium is called a Nash equilibrium.Nash theorem proved strictly use the fixed point theory, fixed point theory is the main economic equilibrium research tools. In popular culture, for the existence of equilibrium is equivalent to find the fixed point game
32、.Nash equilibrium concept provides a very important means of analysis, can make the game theory research in the structure of a game looking for more meaningful results.But Nash equilibrium definition is only limited to any players dont want to unilaterally change strategy, while ignoring the possibi
33、lity of other players change strategy, therefore, in many cases, the conclusion is unconvincing, Nash equilibrium, the researchers vividly called cute Nash equilibrium.Theoden (r. Selten) in multiple equilibrium of some unreasonable equilibrium according to certain rules, and formed two balanced ref
34、ining concepts: sub game equilibrium and trembling hands perfect equilibrium completely.The classification of the game according to the classification of different benchmarks also have different. It is generally believed that game mainly can be divided into cooperative game and non-cooperative game.
35、 Cooperative game and non-cooperative game of difference between interact each other have a binding agreement between the parties, if any, is a cooperative game, if not, it is a cooperative game.From time series of the behavior, game theory is further divided into two categories, static game and dyn
36、amic game, static game is to point to in the game, participants in the selection or at the same time, though not at the same time choose after the actors didnt know what specific actors to take the first action;Dynamic game is to point to in the game, participates in a persons actions have order, an
37、d actors can be observed after the first actors chosen action. Popular understanding: prisoners dilemma is the decision making at the same time, belongs to static game; And decisions or actions such as board games has order, belongs to the dynamic gameAccording to the understanding of the players on
38、 the other player is divided into complete information game and incomplete information game. Complete game is to point to in the process of game, every players on the other players characteristics, the strategy space and yield function with accurate information.Incomplete information game is to poin
39、t to if the players on the other players characteristics, the strategy space and the revenue function information not accurate enough, or not to all participants in the characteristics, the strategy space and profit function has accurate information, in this case the game is the incomplete informati
40、on game.Now economists are now talking about game theory generally refers to the non-cooperative game, due to the complexity of cooperative game theory than the non-cooperative game theory, the theory of maturity than a non-cooperative game theory. Non cooperative game is divided into: complete info
41、rmation static game and dynamic game with complete information and incomplete information static game of incomplete information dynamic game. And corresponding to the four kinds of game equilibrium concept is: Nash equilibrium (Nash equilibrium), sub-game refining Nash equilibrium (subgame perfect N
42、ash equilibrium) and Bayesian Nash equilibrium (Bayesian Nash equilibrium), refined Bayesian Nash equilibrium (perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium).Game theory still has a lot of classification, such as: the game for the number of times or continuous length can be divided into finite game and an infin
43、ite game; To form can also be divided into general type (strategic) or open type; Based on the logic of game and different can be divided into traditional game and evolutionary game theory.2、博弈论博弈论是二人在平等的对局中各自利用对方的策略变换自己的对抗策略，达到取胜的目的。博弈论思想古已有之，中国古代的孙子兵法就不仅是一部军事著作，而且算是最早的一部博弈论著作。博弈论最初主要研究象棋、桥牌、赌博中的胜负
44、问题，人们对博弈局势的把握只停留在经验上，没有向理论化发展。（1)决策人：在博弈中率先作出决策的一方，这一方往往依据自身的感受、经验和表面状态优先采取一种有方向性的行动。(2)对抗者：在博弈二人对局中行动滞后的那个人，与决策人要作出基本反面的决定，并且他的动作是滞后的、默认的、被动的，但最终占优。他的策略可能依赖于决策人劣势的策略选择，占去空间特性，因此对抗是唯一占优的方式，实为领导人的阶段性终结行为。(3)局中人（players）：在一场竞赛或博弈中，每一个有决策权的参与者成为一个局中人。只有两个局中人的博弈现象称为“两人博弈”，而多于两个局中人的博弈称为 “多人博弈”。(4）策略（stra
45、tegies）：一局博弈中，每个局中人都有选择实际可行的完整的行动方案，即方案不是某阶段的行动方案，而是指导整个行动的一个方案，一个局中人的一个可行的自始至终全局筹划的一个行动方案，称为这个局中人的一个策略。如果在一个博弈中局中人都总共有有限个策略，则称为“有限博弈”，否则称为“无限博弈”。(5）得失（payoffs）：一局博弈结局时的结果称为得失。每个局中人在一局博弈结束时的得失，不仅与该局中人自身所选择的策略有关，而且与全局中人所取定的一组策略有关。所以，一局博弈结束时每个局中人的“得失”是全体局中人所取定的一组策略的函数，通常称为支付（payoff）函数。(6）次序（orders）：各博
46、弈方的决策有先后之分，且一个博弈方要作不止一次的决策选择，就出现了次序问题；其他要素相同次序不同，博弈就不同。(7）博弈涉及到均衡：均衡是平衡的意思，在经济学中，均衡意即相关量处于稳定值。在供求关系中，某一商品市场如果在某一价格下，想以此价格买此商品的人均能买到，而想卖的人均能卖出，此时我们就说，该商品的供求达到了均衡。所谓纳什均衡，它是一稳定的博弈结果。纳什均衡(Nash Equilibrium）：在一策略组合中，所有的参与者面临这样一种情况，当其他人不改变策略时，他此时的策略是最好的。也就是说，此时如果他改变策略他的收益将会降低。在纳什均衡点上，每一个理性的参与者都不会有单独改变策略的冲动
47、。纳什均衡点存在性证明的前提是“博弈均衡偶”概念的提出。所谓“均衡偶”是在二人零和博弈中，当局中人A采取其最优策略a*，局中人B也采取其最优策略b*，如果局中人B仍采取b*，而局中人A却采取另一种策略a，那么局中人A的收益不会超过他采取原来的策略a*的收益。这一结果对局中人B亦是如此。这样，“均衡偶”的明确定义为：一对策略a*（属于策略集A）和策略b*（属于策略集B）称之为均衡偶，对任一策略a（属于策略集A）和策略b（属于策略集B），总有：偶对（a,b*）偶对（a*,b*）偶对（a*，b）。博弈的分类根据不同的基准也有不同的分类。一般认为，博弈主要可以分为合作博弈和非合作博弈。合作博弈和非合作
48、博弈的区别在于相互发生作用的当事人之间有没有一个具有约束力的协议，如果有，就是合作博弈，如果没有，就是非合作博弈。从行为的时间序列性，博弈论进一步分为静态博弈、动态博弈两类：静态博弈是指在博弈中，参与人同时选择或虽非同时选择但后行动者并不知道先行动者采取了什么具体行动；动态博弈是指在博弈中，参与人的行动有先后顺序，且后行动者能够观察到先行动者所选择的行动。通俗的理解：囚徒困境就是同时决策的，属于静态博弈；而棋牌类游戏等决策或行动有先后次序的，属于动态博弈按照参与人对其他参与人的了解程度分为完全信息博弈和不完全信息博弈。完全博弈是指在博弈过程中，每一位参与人对其他参与人的特征、策略空间及收益函数有准确的信息。不完全信息博弈是指如果参与人对其他参与人的特征、策略空间及收益函数信息了解的不够准确、或者不是对所有参与人的特征、策略空间及收益函数都有准确的信息，在这种情况下进行的博弈就是不完全信息博弈。目前经济学家们现在所谈的博弈论一般是指非合作博弈，由于合作博弈论比非合作博弈论复杂，在理论上的成熟度远远不如非合作博弈论。非合作博弈又分为：完全信息静态博弈，完全信息动态博弈，不完全信息静态博弈，不完全信息动态博弈。与上述四种博弈相对应的均衡概念为：纳什均衡(Nash equilibrium），子博弈精炼纳