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1、Chapter 3Cash Flows and Financial Analysis(現金流量與財務分析)A Financial Information (財務資訊) (p.57)nFinancial information is the responsibility of managementnCreated by within-firm accountants (由公司內的會計師編製) and reviewed by auditors(公司外的稽查員來檢閱)nCreates a conflict of interest because management wants to portray
2、 firm in a positive lightnPublished to a variety of audiencesA-1 Users of Financial InformationnInvestors and Financial AnalystsnMajor part of analysts job is to make a careful study of recent financial statementsnVendors/CreditorsnUse financial information to determine if the firm is expected to ma
3、ke good on loansnManagementnpinpoint strengths and weaknesses in operationsA-2 Sources of Financial Information (財務資訊的來源)p.59nAnnual Report (主要的資訊來源) nRequired of all publicly traded firmsnTend to portray firm in a positive light, so tend to biased in favor of managements performancenBrokerage firms
4、 and investment advisory services provide reports on most large firms.nExample: Value Line (價值線), Moodys, S&PA-3 The Orientation of Financial Analysis (財務分析的導向)p.62nAccounting is concerned with financial statementsnFinance is concerned with using the data contained within financial statements to mak
5、e decisions (使用財報上的資料去作決策)B The Statement of Cash Flows (p.63)nConstructed from the Balance Sheet and Income Statementn需要2個連續年度的資產負債表及當年的損益表來形成現金流量表n編表的方式有2種n依據3個不同的活動(operating, investing, and financing activities)n依據現金的來源與使用B-2 Business Cash Flows (p.66)nCash Flows RulesnAsset increase use of cash
6、nAsset decrease source of cashnLiability increase source of cashnLiability decrease use of cashB-3 Constructing the Statement of Cash Flows (Example:p.69)-1Belfry CompanyBelfry CompanyBalance SheetIncome StatementFor the period ended 12/31/X2For the period ended 12/31/X2Sales10,000$ 12/31/X112/31/X2
7、COGS6,000$ Cash1,0001,400Gross margin4,000$ Accounts receivable3,0002,900Inventory2,0003,200Expense1,600$ CURRENT ASSETS6,0007,500Depreciation500$ Fixed assetsEBIT1,900$ Gross4,0006,000Interest400$ Accumulated deprec.-1,000-1,500EBT1,500$ Net3,0004,500Tax500$ TOTAL ASSETS9,00012,000Net Income1,000$
8、Accounts payable1,5002,100Accruals500400CURRENT LIABILITIES2,0002,500Long-term debt5,0006,200Equity2,0003,300TOTAL CAPITAL7,0009,500TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY9,00012,000AssetsLiabilitiesBelfry CompanyBelfry CompanyBalance SheetIncome StatementFor the period ended 12/31/X2For the period ended 12/31
9、/X2Sales10,000$ 12/31/X112/31/X2COGS6,000$ Cash1,0001,400Gross margin4,000$ Accounts receivable3,0002,900Inventory2,0003,200Expense1,600$ CURRENT ASSETS6,0007,500Depreciation500$ Fixed assetsEBIT1,900$ Gross4,0006,000Interest400$ Accumulated deprec.(1,000)(1,500)EBT1,500$ Net3,0004,500Tax500$ TOTAL
10、ASSETS9,00012,000Net Income1,000$ Accounts payable1,5002,100Accruals500400CURRENT LIABILITIES2,0002,500Long-term debt5,0006,200Equity2,0003,300TOTAL CAPITAL7,0009,500TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY9,00012,000AssetsLiabilitiesB-3 Constructing the Statement of Cash Flows (Example:p.69)-1Also assume firm
11、paid a $500 dividend and sold stock for $800 during the year.B-3 Constructing the Statement of Cash Flows (Example:p.69)-2While the firm was profitable, it still had to borrow money and sell stock to finance the increase in Fixed Assets.Belfry CompanyStatement of Cash FlowsFor the period ended 12/31
12、/X2CASH FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIESNet income1,000$ Depreciation500$ Net changes in current accounts(600)$ Cash from operating activities900$ CASH FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIESPurchase of fixed assets(2,000)$ CASH FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIESIncrease in long-term debt1,200$ Sale of stock800$ Dividend paid(50
13、0)$ Cash from financing activities1,500$ NET CASH FLOW400$ Beginning cash balance1,000$ Net cash flow400$ Ending cash balance1,400$ B-4 Free Cash Flows-1 (p.73)nUnder normal conditions most firms generate positive cash flow from operationsnSome of these funds are used to maintain long-run competitiv
14、e positionnReplace worn-out fixed assetsnPay dividends on Preferred Stock B-4 Free Cash Flows-2(p.73)nFree cash flow (自由現金流量) is the cash generated beyond reinvestment needs (所產生的現金超過再投資所需的資金)n Free CFs = Net CF non-operating cash requirements (to maintain a long-run competition position)nFree cash
15、flow is the cash available for distribution to common stockholders.C Ratio Analysis (財務比率分析) p.73-90nComparisonsnHistoryexamine trends (how the value has changed over time)nCompetitioncompare with other firms in the same industrynBudgetcompare actual values with expected or desired valuesC Ratio Ana
16、lysis-1nCommon Size Statements (共同比報表/同基財務報表)是將報表中的數字利用一個共同的基準轉換成百分比，除了能規避規模不一的影響外，也可以分解出各會計科目所占的重要性，呈現出結構性的資訊，故稱結構性分析。nCommon size income statementnPresents each line as a percent of revenuenCommon size balance sheetnPresents each line as a percent of total assetsC Ratio Analysis-2nCommon Size Stat
17、ements (共同比報表)nThe common size analysis leads us to ask the right questions. It doesnt give us the answers, but it gets our investigation of problems started in the right direction.nCommon size analysis is particularly useful in comparing a firms performance with its own history.nExample: p.74-75C R
18、atio Analysis-3nTrend analysis by Common-base-year statements (同基年財務報表)趨勢分析是指選定某一會計年度為基年(base year)，將所欲分析的各年度財務報表數額以此基年數額為相同分母平減， 化為指數的型態， 以觀察公司資產、 負債及損益狀況的消長情形。趨勢分析適合進行長期性的分析-多樣本的分析。而轉化成指數值的報表稱為同基年財務報表。Common Size Statements$%$%Sales2,187,460$ 100.0%150,845$ 100.0%COGS1,203,103$ 55.0%72,406$ 48.0%G
19、ross margin984,357$ 45.0%78,439$ 52.0%Expenses505,303$ 23.1%39,974$ 26.5%EBIT479,054$ 21.9%38,465$ 25.5%Interest131,248$ 6.0%15,386$ 10.2%EBT347,806$ 15.9%23,079$ 15.3%Tax118,254$ 5.4%3,462$ 2.3%Net Income229,552$ 10.5%19,617$ 13.0%AlphaBetaC-3 Ratios-1 (p.76)nCategories of Ratios (Table 3.1)nLiquid
20、ityindicate firms ability to pay its bills in the short runnAsset Managementshow how the company uses its resources to generate revenue, profit and to avoid costC-3 Ratios-2nCategories of Ratios (Table 3.1)nDebt Management show how effectively the firm has used borrowed funds and whether or not it h
21、as a high amount of leveragenProfitability allow assessment of the companys ability to make moneynMarket Value give an indication of how investors feel about the companys financial futureC-3 Ratios-3n(1) Liquidity ratiosn流動比率(has to exceed 1.0)n速動比率/酸性測驗比率 (不考慮存貨的比率)C-3 Ratios-4n(2) Asset management
22、 ratios(資產管理/利用比率)n平均收款期間(days;太高的ACP可能是存在有收不回來的應收帳款之暗示)n存貨週轉率(times; a higher turnover is better)n固定資產週轉率(times(次); 衡量長期績效)n總資產週轉率(times(次); 衡量長期績效)C-3 Ratios-5n(3) Debt Management Ratios (債務管理比率/財務槓桿比率/長期償債能力):Debt是指長期債務與流動負債的總和n負債比率(比率越高則被投資人視為高風險)n負債對權益比率 (fixed financial charge & risk)n利息保障倍數(T
23、IE;比率越高隱含安全性越高)n現金涵蓋比率n固定費用涵蓋比率C-3 Ratios-6nProfitability Ratios (獲利能力比率):一般以百分比的方式表示n銷貨報酬率(ROS); profit margin; net profit marginn資產報酬率(ROA)n權益報酬率(ROE)C-3 Ratios-7nMarket Value Ratios (市價比率)n價盈比(P/E ratio; 越高越好)n市價對帳面價值比 (穩健的公司會產生股票市價高於帳面價值)C-3 Ratios-8anDu Pont Equations (杜邦恆等式):利用比率之間的關係以洞悉營運之成功與
24、否Net IncomesalesROA Total AssetssalesorNet IncomesalesROA sales Total AssetsorROE = ROS total asset turnover C-3 Ratios-8bnExtended Du Pont equation states that the operation of a business is reflected in its ROEnHowever, this resultgood or badcan be multiplied by borrowingnThe way you finance a bus
25、iness can exaggerate the results from operationsnThe Du Pont equations can be used to isolate problemsC-3 Ratios-8cEquity MultiplierNet Incomesalestotal assetsROE Stockholders Equitysalestotal assetsor Net Incomesalestotal assetsROE sales total assetsStockholders EquityorROE = ROS Total Asse ROAt Turnover Equity Multiplieror ROE = ROA Equity Multiplier C-4 Limitations/Weaknesses of Ratio Analysis (p.90)n(1) 會計數字無法反映實際價值n(2) 會計方法的選擇影響比較效度 (window dressing)n(3) 多角化投資的影響n(4) 通膨的影響n(5) 標竿的選擇問題n(6) 會計數字的品質問題